Classics Betting Update, News, Opinion

Really interesting reading on this thread, I must say The Derby market is really confusing to me, with the Guineas form looking to me to be the strongest of "trials" that we've seen. Yet the winner of the Guineas and the fourth home are double the price of a Lingfield Derby trial, and whilst English King is obviously a talented horse who has the best jockey on, but that surely doesn't mean he should be as short as he is. The only way I can see him going off so short is if Frankie has ridden the winner of the Oaks and perhaps a few other races earlier in the card.

Kameko is only the price he is because his sire isn't a traditional Derby sire, with Kittens Joy having a 30% strike rate over this sort of trip and with quality horses like Hawkbill in that list. Roaring Lion finished 3rd in the Derby and that did him no harm either!

Military March is on the march outwards in the market, but again his pedigree and his run in the Guineas makes him of obvious appeal. I have an antepost voucher on him, and whilst I can't be overly confident, I would still rather have him than English King in a match bet!

Then we will see a battalion of O'Brien horses, and plenty of them will improve for their trial runs, and I expect at least one of the yards horses will be punted for the race.

As such, surely English King is a massively false price? What price would I have him? I'd say he should be bigger than Kameko, and that isn't to say that I think Kameko is value, its just that EK is far from the correct price.

 

I haven't checked back through the posts, but I don't think I've read anything about the American Pharoah colt Ocean Atlantique who's racing in France. He's owned by Magnier, Tabor and Smith and trained by Andre Fabre. With the owner's Mogul now looking soft, Fabre said discussions with Magnier, Tabor and Smith about a Derby start will be undertaken. Ocean Atlantique might be a solid chance at 12f.

His 4 runs are listed below.

https://www.racingandsports.com/thoroughbred/horse/ocean-atlantique/1539268

 

RP reporting that Russian Emperor, Mogul, Vatican City, Mythical and Amhran Na Bhfiann are O'Brien's horses for Epsom with Armory also a possible but he may go to the Jockey Club with Fort Myers

He has just the six in the Irish Derby with Tiger Moth, Dawn Patrol, Iberia, Arthur's Kingdom, Santiago and Order Of Australia

 

I don't know Joe but if I had to guess at 3 to look into off the top of my head I would ask about Morston, Snow thingy and maybe Commander in Chief who ran below form in the KG and not sure what happened after that. Possibly Sir Dragonet although still going, sort of.

Not suggesting these were ruined but ? possible

 

I wasn't really trying to make a case for those horses going sprinting it was more a case of how differently they achieved their Ascot victories. Alpine Star went harder in the early stages and was actually slowing down in the final 2F. Palace Pier was more sedate in the first six furlongs but rattled home over the closing 2F.

Comparing sectionals without context is misleading. We heard about Waldkonig clocking sectionals that were compared to those of Kachy but the Gosden horse looked as fast as a bag of wet cement when Highest Ground came to claim him at Haydock.

 

Easy for Telecaster today but it was a poor affair he won. He went off 2/5 Fav and that tells its own tale.

I am not saying those were slow opponents he beat today but Oxford were second, Cambridge finished third and Thor Heyerdahl got quite a good tune out of Kon-Tiki in 4th today.

 

Ffs Miltary March out the Derby, training setback.

 

Market movement earlier in the week suggested something was wrong. Unfortunately people knew.

 

This year's Derby is getting weaker by the day. I can't remember such an uninspiring renewal and the injury of Military March is a big blow to an already thin level of quality.

The trainer said it was not a major problem but in the same breath said that the colt will be out until the end of September. That doesn't leave very much that he can be aimed at.

Huge loss for Saeed Bin Suroor, as Military March and Final Song have been his only runners of any real relevance this year. The trainer has very much played second fiddle to Charlie Appleby for a while now and his stats since the start of the year have seen 4 winners from 40 runners and prize money of £68,000 while his more illustrious cohort Charlie Appleby has 23 from 92 for £388,000 in the same period.

I noticed that Highest Ground was awarded a rating of 101 for beating Waldkonig by the Racing Post. That figure means that they had to back Waldkonig up by six pounds to 96 from his previous run. I suspect most people expected the Gosden horse to put in a much better performance on his second start of the season, not least John Gosden himself. Running 6 lbs worse cannot have been what they were looking for. The assessors are hamstrung to an extent by how poor the other horses in the race were. As it stands, they have had to raise Rukwa by 26 lbs to 59 and Magnificat by 22 lbs to 55 in order to get Highest Ground up to 101. Looking at the Alan King horse Magnificat, he was stepping up from 7F last time to 10 and a half furlongs and you might argue he would be better served by the extra distance but the horse is by Dandy Man and he didn't run like the trip was what he wanted.

Highest Ground is still a colt of promise, with more to come in time but Waldkonig has been deemed to have gone back from what was already a disappointing seasonal appearance as a beaten odds-on favourite. Maybe Stoute will see Military March coming out as a reason to have a go with Highest Ground but the horse probably needs 20 lbs to win an average Derby and 17 lbs to win a poor one if we feel the Racing Post rating is somewhere near the reality of the form thus far.

 

On good to soft ground he beat standard time by more than a second. Now perhaps it's usually soft so standard time is slow, or perhaps it's that old problem with French racing where they canter for most of the race then go hell for leather for the last 2f so standard times are slow.
But in the class of race he was running in, on the going of the day and with the acknowledged style of French racing he beat standard time for the distance by one second easing down. If I was Morrison I'd be pleased with that.

 

On 22nd October last year I wrote the following in the 2YOs Thread:-

No colt really catches my eye for the Derby but Andre Fabre's American Pharoah colt Ocean Atlantique spreadeagled his field on his second start at Saint Cloud over 1 mile on heavy ground and he looked a good staying prospect. Owned by the usual Coolmore suspects he could be a useful addition to the armoury.

I think he was 40/1 for the Derby at that stage but with the owners having so many well bred individuals that they would like to see in The Derby and a probable preference for one of the Galileo ones to succeed, it was dubious that Ocean Atlantique would start an Epsom Derby.

Beaten on his return this season he ran as if the race was needed and he duly made no mistake next time. I felt he was likely to gain revenge on earlier foe Pao Alto should they clash again but the Prix La Force form is not up to that of Victor Ludorum yet (Rated 3kg lower) and you would think that the Shamardal colt is intrinsically faster coming from success in the French 2000 Guineas.

Ocean Atlantique varies in price for the French Derby from 7/2 to 6/1 and perhaps a lot of that is due to the possibility that he may go to Epsom. The Coolmore team may consider that the Epsom Derby is a more winnable race given the overall picture of it and that Victor Ludorum may be a tougher nut to crack at 10F in the French Derby.

An interesting contender if he turns up but I must admit that I felt he shaped like a real grinding it out type who would be best served making the pace and trying to burn off the potential closers. If he does go to Epsom they should dust off the video of Steve Cauthen and Slip Anchor in 1985 and leave the video of Greville Starkey on Dancing Brave from the following year at the bottom of the pile, covered in dust bunnies, where it firmly belongs.

 

I was there with my wife and, having backed it, was laughing all the way from Tattenham corner - what a jockey, and he did it on Reference Point ( there as well and backed it)

Was there also and it's where my wife fell in love with Dancing Brave, who she backed. Oh dear GS, best forgotten

 

I must admit that I don't know much about the courses at Longchamp these days or how reliable the standard times are. Telecaster's race was the only one to be run on the Grande Course today, so it is hard to compare today's times.

Bet365 felt the need to cut Telecaster to 33/1 from 50/1 for the Arc but that looked a weak field he beat today. The Racing Post had him equalling his best ever run in the Dante and his 3rd in the Brigadier Gerard, both 117 performances but I wouldn't trust today's race as much as the other two.

There will be more races to be won with Telecaster but Morrison admitted himself that he had placed the horse badly when going to the Derby after having earlier removed him from it and then dropping him in trip to take on Enable in the Eclipse after having said he would wait until later for a lesser race in France. I hope he places the horse to better effect this season, he's a classy animal.

 

Virtual bets for the Derby Just base on current prices
At 5/1 it would have been simply £100 ew English King plus some cover bets. However I missed that so now at 5/2 I will just have (potential profit in brackets)
Russian Emperor 8/1 £40 win (205)
Highest Ground 20/1 £10 win (55)
Highland Chief 40/1 £5 win (50)
English King 5/2 £40 win (195)
Hopefully get a run for my "money"

 

Sorry don't agree with that Ben. Morrison and the owner must have been hugely disappointed by Telecaster after the Derby last year. When he won the Dante he looked a colt set for a great year. So I think it depends on what you mean by ruined. He certainly didn't achieve what one might have thought was envisaged for him with a last in the Derby and a near last in the Eclipse. My own view was that he was too inexperienced to run in the Derby.
Dick Hern was of the view that you thought seriously before sending a horse to Epsom. Only if they were really ready for it did he declare them. He only won 3 Derbys but I think he knew what he was saying.
I did write a bit about the 4 unraced 2yos who won the Derby. The first one never ran again, the second never ran again, the third ran twice winning once but disappointing on his subsequent start, which was his last, and the final one ran several times finally adding a group3 win to his Derby win about 12 months later.
I think there;s a danger in trying to force a horse too early in their career. The Derby is a tough race and often a rough race. For an inexperienced colt it's a hard race. My view is they often don;t flourish after it and although they come back it may take time. Morrison has been patient. The three examples you give are of horses who all ran as 2yo and were pretty experienced.

 

I find it extremely difficult to believe that Waldkonig ran worse than he did at Newmarket where he was all at sea on the track, rating the race on a bunch of horses with non existent form, who barely took part in a what was a falsely run race, doesnt look too clever and id be surprised if the official handicappers are rushing to let the the 3rd run off 68.

Looks an obvious case to use common sense over what the book says when judging the 2 horses who took part in the match race which effectively started 4 out. In my opinion it was a step forward from Waldkonig, he was much more professional and ran a sound race, just bumped into a horse who looks to have Group 1 potential. Youd be living in fantasy island to rate them 96 and 101, both horses are likely to be 110+ and will win Group races imo.

 

Two Group horses rated 110+ running in a three and a half grand Class 5 Novice is much more like Fantasy Island to my mind.

Funny how Waldkonig was a tree beater who had zero chance at Epsom and a knee-action unsuited to decent ground and now he is solid yardstick. He's earned just over seven grand in three starts. That won't even keep the horse in polos for the season.

 

Waldkonig does have zero chance at Epsom and has an action suited to soft ground, and he did beat trees on debut, but hes a decent animal and will probably turn out the 2nd best from the dam which means under the right conditions he will be capable of running to around 110.

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You want a bet for a ton? Both Waldkonig and Highest Ground will win Group races, free money for you if you think its fantasy island.