Daily Thread Sunday 29th December

Leopardstown brings us a mouthwatering clash in the Ryanair Hurdle.

2 miles around Leopardstown where Hurricane Fly, Our Conor, and Jezki are ALL unbeaten over hurdles, all course and distance winners.

The winner will re-shape the Champion Hurdle market.

I think JEZKI 11/4 can do the business on his 3rd start of the year with Our Conor needing a run, and testing out whether Hurricane Fly still has the same speed as he once possessed. He looks a stronger horse this year and his victory over 2m 4f over Zaidpour last time really does highlight his class, as he is a tough cookie to crack over 2 and a half, especially if you are a 2m horse against him. He quickens, stays, and jumps well.

An Our Conor victory would make him Champion Hurdle favourite, but instead I see Jezki winning and slotting in at 7/2 JF with Tent and New One and blowing the Champion Hurdle picture wide open.

To give some sort of insight into why its mouthwatering- here are 3 course and distance victories to indulge yourselves in:

[video=youtube;02LajiXh3AY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02LajiXh3AY[/video]

[video=youtube;IXRSDPNrEcY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXRSDPNrEcY[/video]


[video=youtube;sMxmkUON3Vw]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMxmkUON3Vw[/video]

 

Hurricane Fly for me but like you say TC a mouthwatering clash that will be intriguing to see. I think the winner should be clear fave for the champion hurdle in March as on there best days neither of these 3 would lose to MTOY or TNO on there best day but time will tell.

 

I'll be there tomorrow cheering on the fly to victory!

 

I was there today Ste to see Bobs Worth win had a great day so i hope you enjoy it and back a few winners and maybe dabble with a few of those fancy cheap Whiskeys! I must admit I always like the smell of that Whiskey kiosk walking to and from the stand.

 

Bad race to bet in.

 

Had a bet on MORNING ASSEMBLY 11/8 Leopardstown 3.05 my only bet tomorrow. Looks a real improver.



Best of luck all

 

Really?? The only time Jezki has met ether MTOY or TNO has been at Cheltenham and its 1-0 to both MTOY & TNO. Can`t have Jezki on my mind for the Champion Hurdle at all.

 

3:35 Leop - Fort Smith

Owners sponsor the race, and ive been told this one has been fully tuned up for a big run tomorrow.

 

Hurricane Fly for me tomorrow and i think odds against is quite a nice price. Morning Assembly the bet for me for tomorrow though. Good win last time against Don Cossack and im not sure there is anything of his class in this

 

Ive put up Morning Assembly the last 3 times he has run, I wouldnt have thought anyone needed telling again, class animal. 11/4 antepost

Ryanair looks a class race, Our Conor will have to win this nicely for me to even consider him a rival to The New One. The Fly obviously still the one to beat and 5/4 could look a big price but given the circumstances and the potential of the opposition, its not really that great a price. If Bryan Cooper was still on Our Conor I would fancy him more, I like Danny Mullins but just like his horse, he has it all to prove at this level. McCoy will give Jezki every chance and good horse that he is, if he wins you can forget about any of them winning at Cheltenham.

Gun to my head, Our Conor but its hard to be overly strong on anything in this race, its one of those ones where after the race when we find out, something is going to look a big price!

 

RSA winner MOG?

 

Must have a good chance if they decide to run him in it, he handles that soft ground well tho and they might not get that at Cheltenham.

 

Stating the obvious but tomorrow sees the best hurdle race outside of the Champion Hurdle in March. Any of the 'big 3' could win it. Would be nice for the Champ to send out a message that he hasn't gone away though! I'll not be backing any but watching with great interest. If Our Conor wins it though, he surely becomes the new Champion Hurdle favourite. The Tent and New One look pretty evenly matched...

Morning Assembly wins the novice chase.

 

115 doncastor midnight oscar at 8s ew could and should put a stop to the hatrick seeking fav cowards close!
very light today laat run was a very fast run 4th scholfield is back onboard here and dec last year under similar conditions they took home the win in another fast time so hopefully the can make it two from two

 

uncle -- you may be right with your view on Midnight Oscar--but stable form has to be a concern surely--for me harry Fry holds the key--top and bottom weight in this handicap--OB holds the weights, needs a confidence restoring clear round--but Henryville at the bottom is the 'dark' one-- i shall play this scenario.could of course be totally wrong--but thats my interpretation...

 

220 Doncaster sees 2nd fav real milan return from a 200plus day break last time out after a big break real won , now fehily is onboard so i imagine they will really want this win . I personally will be siding with the very light weighted fav susquihanna river with davies onboard fresher and hopefully rearing to go 7/2looks very fair with most bookies . 4s on real milan is good but after the massive break and the tough task today I would need 5s/6s ew odds to take the chance.

 

I try to veiw from all angles rudebwoy there is one thing I really dont let concern me and that is stable form it can change in a instant I prefer to be led by the odds as it is a presentage game and 8s looks very fair ew . But a gamble is a risk so we will see .

 

Uncle--me too- stable form is a major factor--and yes it comes good sometimes dramatically--and the reverse happens--bookies are often slow to react --or rather mug punters aided by the 'tipping' industry--thats why sites like these are so good--a world away from the hype machines-- but sometimes i find the more i look at a race the more complex it can become --distractions if you like--these are animals( moody ones sometimes)--not machines --any how --good luck to you ! if i am wrong , i always hope someone else is right !!

ps-- being led by odds is a funny one--can be insightful or totally wrong--how else would we pick big priced winners ?- agree that a horse being backed is an indication of confidence--especially if it has low key previous form--the old BF system can work wonders that way....

 

Can make a case for pretty much every horse in this race, but my money is going on AL Co at 14s

 

a couple of weeks ago Keith Dalgleish sent Seaside Rock all the way to ffos las--to qualify for a mark-this horse is bottom weight in its first handicap--his jumpers have been in terrific form--5 winners out of last six runners.....at 16/1 worth a punt !