French Flat Season [2019]

With a lot of meetings now Live on Sky Sports Racing, thought it would be a good idea to have a thread for horses to follow/eye catchers etc

Eye Catcher from todays meeting at Chantilly: Sedrina

Punted on debut run from 13-2 into 3-1 favourite she was pulled back into the rear after a good start, and stayed there till switched wide in the straight and ran on with no pressure from the jockey.
Finished 6th but only beaten under 3 lengths. The filly needs further and stable has been out of form.

 

Freddy Head's Motamarris was a facile winner of the earlier race for Colts and Geldings.

Run over the same distance as the fillies race, Motamarris set out in front and stayed there all the way. Watching him, I thought he had a flowing action but I wondered if he might get caught out when the pace lifted. I need not have been concerned though, as he quickened up and put the race to bed quickly. He drew right away to win by seven lengths in the end and totally outclassed his field. Either he is decent, or the rest are modest indeed.

The race replay can be seen here:-

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/3650/

By a stallion I like in Le Havre, the biggest concern for me would be getting involved heavily on a Freddy Head inmate at short odds next time, because he often seems to have very promising newcomers who don't quite develop as one would expect.

The huge difference between the male and female divisions today was the time of the races. Motamarris was slightly over five seconds faster than the winner of the fillies race and that's a massive margin when converted to distance.

Early days of course but a promising start for Head's newcomer.

 

Yes that was impressive, and clock backed it up

 

Talking of Freddy Head, think this filly of his is one to follow this season

Featuring

Well bred and though failing to win any of her 2 races last season struck me as the type to be a better 3 year old

 

Also like this filly

Matematica

Owned by the Wertheimer Family she was beaten in a photo on both runs as a juvenile and to me looked like one of the best maidens in France

 

Another Laffon -Parias/Wertheimer 3 year old

Starmaniac

Liked that both his 2 year old runs were at Longchamp, winning the last one. Bred to win top races

 

Motamarris was awarded 88 by the Racing Post and that's above average for a first timer in my experience of French Racing ratings from the Post.

Justfirstlady got off the mark earlier in the month in very taking style at Deauville. Jean-Claude Rouget purchased the daughter of Siyouni on behalf of the owners and paid 150,000 Euros for her. Laurens had an excellent season for the sire last year and Justfirstlady is said to be going to the French Guineas and Prix Diane if progressing nicely.

Persian King is said to be heading for the Newmarket Guineas but I would doubt he has the stamina for the Derby, so I backed him for the French Race which is 2F shorter these days. I thought 10/1 was very fair, with the biggest concern being Too Darn Hot winning our Guineas and being ruled out of Epsom on stamina grounds and parachuted in at Chantilly instead.

 

Newcomer wise will be interested when this colt makes his debut

Zarkallani

Been a while since Trainer De Royer Dupre has had a decent 3 year old, but this Aga Khan horse appeals on breeding and I noticed the other day was kept in at the latest declaration stage for our Derby.

 

I'd be surprised if Zarkallani gets a mile and a half being by Invincible Spirit but he is out of the legendary Zarkava. Her first two foals to race were both quite smart but De Royer Dupre has been disappointing for a few seasons now.

I am not sure the Derby entry is necessarily significant. The Aga Khan and Hamdan Al Maktoum seem to block enter loads of their well bred colts as a matter of course.

An fascinating colt to look out for but he'll need to make up rapidly to make the big targets early season.

I backed Persian King for the French Derby at 10/1 as I said earlier on the forum. He's been steady at that price for a while but he is now in to 5/1. I don't know if it is just people eyeing different targets with Cheltenham over or whether something else has prompted the price cut. Seems a positive sign anyway.

 

Andre Fabre has said that Persian King is likely to go to Newmarket for the 2000 Guineas but that there is still a chance he may stay at home for the French version. His intended return will likely be in the traditional French trial the Prix Djebel over 7F at Maisons Laffitte. It was the race Al Wukair won two years ago before being third at Newmarket. Sadly for my wager at 16/1 ante-post he was left with a bit to do at 11/2 on the day and could not get to winner Churchill in the closing stages.

Al Wukair will have his first foals out this season and he stands at a modest enough looking fee of 8000 Euros for a horse rated 120 at his best.

Persian King may take the same route to Newmarket as Al Wukair and hopefully can do better for me at 25/1 than his forerunner stable inmate. Fabre has warned that if it is heavy ground during the trials period in France his colt may skip those races entirely. Andre Fabre felt that Persian King was still green when getting up to beat Magna Grecia in the Autumn Stakes. The O'Brien horse went on to win what was the Racing Post Trophy and although that was not a strong renewal it's still decent form. If Too Darn Hot fails to come forward this season, then Persian King has as good a chance as any of taking advantage of that.

 

Well Andre Fabre has made a quick U Turn and said that Persian King definitely misses the Prix Djebel and stated that the Newmarket Guineas is only second, or even third, choice for the colt.

Fabre basically ruled out the Newmarket Guineas unless the race cuts up and the big name horses don't make it.

Hardly a ringing endorsement and odd that it comes so soon after saying the horse was likely to go to Newmarket.

At this rate Brexit will be more clear cut.

 

Talking of Fabre...he had a very nice 3 year old called Epic Hero who Won in a decent time at Chantilly today

 

Epic Hero was most impressive at Chantilly. I was surprised Fabre's other horse was so short in the betting, because after three starts his RPR was only 82, while the 75 rated Epic Hero had not a bad figure himself of 75 from his third place at Saint-Cloud last June. Epic Hero was favourite for the 7F race on soft ground and was only a short head away from being second that day. Obviously they have given him plenty of time and that looked a decent performance yesterday.

Looking at the form of yesterday's race, the runner up Eagleways had kicked off his career in two Listed Races in Italy, those efforts saw him rated in the low 90's which is pretty good for Italian form I would say. He was not as good next time in the same company and changed stables taking up racing in France instead. He hasn't been as highly rated there but still managed runs rated in the 80's by the Racing Post. 4th Horse yesterday, Admiral Rous is quite a well raced horse and he was rated 90 for winning at Chantilly in January. He seems a reasonably consistent 85-90 horse and if he even ran to 80 yesterday it makes Epic Hero's win look pretty good.

They said that the Prix de Fontainebleau could be on the cards if Andre Fabre feels that is the best race for him. The Fontainebleau is a race won by some good sorts over the years and Brametot won it in 2017 before going on to win both the French 2000 Guineas and Derby for Jean-Claude Rouget.

The time of Epic Hero's race was a fair bit better than the other races over the mile on the card but they were all pretty modest winners. The second fastest winner over a mile on the day was Empiric, whose last RPR was 62. Epic Hero carried 8st 9lbs whereas Empiric had 9st 2 lbs, so I am not sure how significant the time of 1.5 seconds faster for Epic Hero is.

A stunning win for Epic Hero though, as can be seen here:-

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/3668/

He seemed to have a light, flowing action for a horse running on the all-weather Polytrack and he scampered away from them. I wanted to see how his debut last year went and managed to track down the replay for that race:-

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/3273/

Slowly away and at the back, he seems to get shuffled further back at one stage. Coming into the latter stages he looks to have a hopeless position. Despite obvious inexperience and running green, he manages to produce a good run, finishing well but not quite getting there. Still looked a race debut jam-packed with promise and I wish I had seen that video before yesterday's race.

Nice spot Grade One.

 

Yes Grendel that debut run was eye catching, did a lot running from the back under hands and heels to finish 3rd

 

I see Paddy Power have put Epic Hero in the Newmarket 2000 Guineas betting. 20/1? Monty F*** Paddy Power.

I don't think Epic Hero is even entered and he has a long way to go from a Conditions race on the Polytrack to the Colt's Classic.

I did ponder if Fabre suddenly went cold on Persian King's chance of going to Newmarket after seeing Epic Hero but that would be pure speculation.

Godolphin did lose Quorto for the 2000 Guineas and perhaps they would be looking to strengthen their potential candidates but 20/1 seems crazy low at this stage. Godolphin did purchase a half share in Persian King and he is shown on the Racing Post as now carrying the Godolphin Blue, so perhaps they might not feel the need to supplement Epic Hero if he proves good enough. 20/1 makes no appeal and no other firms are quoting the horse for Newmarket.

 

Can’t see Epic being supplemented unless he wins a classic trial

 

I understand that Epic Hero will be entered in the G3 Djebel at Maisons-Laffitte on 10th April

 

That's interesting, I read that the Prix De Fontainebleau was a possible target for him. Andre Fabre has already ruled Persian King out of the Djebel and it could be that Epic Hero replaces him there. Persian King was said to be having an entry in the Prix De La Force and that is normally a French Derby trial.

The Racing Post have yet to give Epic Hero a rating for his Chantilly win and it is not easy to be accurate at this stage but I reckon he has come forward at least two stones from his effort last year and that would be a mark of 100 to 105 in my ball park/back of a fag packet ready reckoner. He would probably need to hose up in the Djebel and even then I get the feeling Fabre does not think Too Darn Hot can be beaten at Newmarket. Their is a vacancy for the top French colt if Persian King is on the wane in Fabre's expectations and Epic Hero may just fill it.

 

Simon Rowlands on Timeform analysed the sectionals for Epic Hero's win and stated that the last 200m was covered in 11.01 seconds, a time Rowlands described as "Eye-watering"

Epic Hero's time figure was given as 99 but with an upgrade of +9 based on the sectionals. Rowlands concluded that:-

"I suspect we will be hearing a fair bit more of Epic Hero in the months ahead."

 

Always respect the time analysis by Rowlands