Gents, A favour please. Just trying to confirm understanding of NFL match betting on their handicap markets. If there is a handicap market, lets say for arguments sake -8.0 or +8.0, if you back the team +8.0, and they lose by exactly 8 points- is that a winning bet? Thanks for anyone who can help out with the knowledge.
No, it would then be a draw game TC. It would have to be a 7 point loss or 9 point win if you did -8 for talk sake.
If the losing/winning margin is exactly what the handicap was its void so like having a non runner in a horse racing acca, a five fold becomes a four fold
Yeah it's a draw on the handicap. Some company's will do a market where it's either -7.5 or -8.5 then that would stop the draw from coming into play. A lot of bookmakers know though that the draw is a big pay day for them, as no one backs the draw on the handicap, so they are quite happy to keep it in the running
You picked the wrong point of the season to take up betting on the NFL point spreads – Sunday was the last week of the regular season and now there is just the sudden death play offs leading to Superbowl 50. You may well find that the point spreads make little difference in the play offs as winning underdogs usually win the game rather than just keeping the game close. When the British bookies first started betting on American Football, they would just blindly offer the Las Vegas point spread but always with a half point factored in (if there was none) so that there was no draw possibility. I used to clean up betting on the NFL because the point spread is heavily influenced by the Vegas bookmakers’ knowledge of which teams are most heavily supported, so teams like the Dallas Cowboys were always a false favourite and backing their opponents with an over generous start would often come up as the Cowpokes would win by a field goal but fail to cover a 4 or 5 point spread. Nowadays our bookies employ people who know the game to advise them, so the point spread here is sometimes a couple of points different. Since you were interested in an 8 point favourite, I am going to deduce from the time of your posting that it would be the Denver Broncos, who were a 7.5 point favourite on the opening line in Vegas but only won by 7 to collect for underdog backers. Something that you might like to consider is how the scoring in NFL games means that many point spread options are not what they seem. As a field goal is worth 3, a touchdown is worth 6 plus either a PAT (point after touchdown) kick or a 2-point conversion, a 5.5 point handicap is a bit of a poor deal for an underdog punter as games are rarely won by 5 points whilst the favourite backer is getting the quite common 6 and 7 point margins in his favour. An 8 point margin does not come up very often as 2-point conversions are usually only attempted by teams that are losing by big margins. The commonest close margins are 3, 4, 6 and 7. Ironically, there were two 5-point margins in Week 17 just to disprove my argument!
I had a sickener last year with Seattle blowing the game on the final play, throwing the ball when camped on the goal line with one of the best running backs in the NFL. I am not sure that I would read too much into Seattle thrashing Arizona in their season finale as neither really had anything on the line so coaches may have been more worried about keeping everyone healthy. I was expecting Seattle to end up going to Washington, winners of the NFC Least but I still fancy them over Minnesota. I cannot summon up any enthusiasm for any of the AFC teams as the Patriots have looked very vulnerable in the second half of the season. After Wild Card weekend when I know who goes to Carolina and Arizona, I might have a better idea of which of them I fancy if Seattle are not going to do it the hard way and get to San Francisco.
Not giving the ball to Lynch was just insane last year. Crazy final. Seahawks have got that intensity back about them on the road of late. They have the experience to do this, and I do like their chances of an upset. Can't believe how out of sorts the Packers have been of late. Early season I fancied them to gain revenge on Seattle in the playoffs.
