Off Topic Lies, Damned Lies and STATISTICS!!!!

A lengthy read, but well worth it - https://statsbomb.com/2019/05/a-man-a-plan-a-promotion-norwich-city/
Wasn't sure on which thread I should post the link, but as it's stats ........

 

Maybe on The 2019-2020 season. thread. That's where RER put it

JMF, couldn't resist

 

So my final stat for this season – comparing Wolves and NCFC final positions.
Pros – We scored more goals, had fewer defeats, fewer red cards, more goal attempts (Sh)and more shots on target (Sht), though both percentages are fairly equal.
Cons – We ended up with fewer points, more draws and more yellow cards.

 

Goals against. Massive Minus.

Our goals against at home, we are along side some of the worst sides in the league. Overall I've not heard, but If we are bottom 3 on goals at home conceded in the Prem. It's game over straight away.

 

Thanks FML - I was sure I'd missed something.

That's one of the most worrying aspects of our season and I believe 2 teams have scored 4 against us - WBA and FLDC (after 'floodlighfate'!!!)

 

Don't forget this was the first season for Aarons and first season in CB position for Godfrey. Jamal's a relative newbie too and Zimbo came on a free from zee German fourth tier. There's always going to be some learning and settling in when that's the case. The fact they've managed to do that and win the league at the same time is not too shabby. I think they'll start to tighten things up as they play more together.

 

Home: GF 51, GA 34 (GA fourth worst in the league)
Away: GF 42, GA 23 (GA best in the league)

 

Wow! Great stat!

Funny how the podcasts only mentioned the negative stat.

Also, the football podcasts brush over us all season, when they focused on us after winning the title, it was about the bus breaking down....

 

Some great points there HQMC and they have ALL improved over the season and our GD since the start of this year is vastly improved and over the last 20 games, we have scored 45 goals and conceding 23!!

 

Two other things worth noting from the home v away numbers:

1. Points gained: Home 49, Away 45
2. GD: Home 17, Away 19

Question: shouldn't we perhaps try to play at home more like we play away?

 

I agree with the views above, but I still think we're unbalanced between attack and defence. We know the budget is limited to £20m, so we need to work with what we have and recruit a RB to replace Pinto, a wide player to replace Marshall and possibly CB if Klose leaves. The advantage of that is we'll go into the new season with a settled squad (as long as we don't cave in to bids for our rising stars). However, the challenge is going be far greater in the PL, which has moved on in the three years we've been away. I suggested a possible way forward on the transfer thread:

Godfrey has played at both at DM and CB and we're said to be interested in Ajayi, who has also played both positions, and that makes me wonder whether there could be some tweaks to our formation next season. Our defenders are comfortable playing out of defence but might we play 3 at the back with one CB who shifts into DM as the ball is played through the thirds, thus allowing the deep playmaker to move forward to support the attack. When possession is lost, they shift back to their original positions again with the extra CB to fend off any attack and also defend against corners and free-kicks. That would give us fluidity and movement all over the pitch, rather than just in the attack while also making us stronger defensively. It also makes the most of Godfrey's talents all over the pitch.

 

I don't agree that if we are in the bottom three for goals conceded at home we will be relegated. It really all depends on GD. Boro conceded exactly half the number that we did and missed out on the play offs. If we could win 25 points at home and 15 away that would almost certainly guarantee survival.

I think we will do better than that. Farke has stated that he intends to play the same style. That means a big goals against tally but probably also a good number scored. The opposite to the Hughton style that everyone was against. I really loved Holloway's Blackpool season and he very nearly succeeded. With Pukki leading the charge and backed up by Buendia, Stieperman and Vrancic and few Farke time strikes by Rhodes we could.

 

It makes a lot of sense but we know DF does enjoy his regular 4231. (I'm a fan of 5 in midfield too). I don't see it changing. I wonder if the Ajayi rumour is more about us actually losing Godfrey to a ManU or similar?

 

Farke actually wanted to use a 4141 when he arrived but found that he needed both a CM and a DM, so changed to a 4231. That becomes a 2251 when the FBs bomb forward to provide width, which is the same as I'm suggesting. It only reverts to a 3421 when the opposition has the ball (or a 541 when under heavy pressure). At present we bring everybody back when defending corners and free kicks. The difference would be having 3 CBs to defend against those and other attacks and we would still have 4 attacking players plus the WBs when going forward.

 

Just seen this quote from Godfrey in the EDP:

"If he thinks I can kick on better as a central defender then so be it because obviously I'm trying to go as far as I can in this game. So I trust his opinion, which you have to do and it turns out he's right, my attributes have turned out pretty well at centre-back. I'll back myself to play midfield anyway but centre-back is definitely a position I have loved playing, loved learning and kicking on with."

 

Some excellent and varied posts.
I'm hoping that at least 3 of the 4 youngsters will still be at CR next season and so enhance both their sale value and salary by playing in the PL and competing against the best that this country can offer.
I see Krul has decided to sit down with each of them in an attempt to persuade them to stay, but money/agents will 'muddy the waters' I'm sure.

 

Even agents should be able to identify long-term benefits.

 

It’s a tricky one isn’t it - we actually got more points at home so maybe not! I wonder though whether it’s also partly the style of the opposition - when we are at home the opposition in the Championship is much more likely to be quite defensive.

Farke’s solution to that is to increase risk in order to get opposition out of their shells - that has actually been very successful but left us vulnerable to conceding (albeit outweighed by scoring even more!)

It’s difficult to know how that will pan out in the PL. On the one hand, more teams will be more aggressive when we are at home so we won’t have to increase the risk like we did in the Championship, on the other hand those that do set up defensively will be better at it and more dangerous. Either way, we will of course have to improve...

 

Watching a compilation of Pukki's goals it occurs to me that many of them are of the type that cannot be easily prevented. He seems to have that uncanny knack possessed by many natural goalscorers that almost seems to amount to a sixth sense as to where the ball is going to do. As I mentioned somewhere else Ted MacDougall had it. But Pukki also has a decent turn of pace and good ball control where it counts. It can often look like luck ( QPR, Leeds, Millwall) but it really isn't. It is about anticipating about where the ball might end up and making the decision to go there. Leeds really was a great example where he ran on to the deflected ball that gave a ( for him) simple scoring opportunity.