Off Topic Lies, Damned Lies and STATISTICS!!!!

Very true. I can remember a famous ice hockey player saying, "I don't go to where the puck is, I go to where it's going to be". Pukki has that ability as well and it helps that he shares an almost telepathic understanding with Buendia, Hernandez and Stiepermann.

Against Villa, his goal was described as "a tap in". It was anything but. The timing of the cross was perfect, but so was Pukki's anticipation as he moved past the defender and stretched full length to score. It looks simple in that instant, but it's his movement and that of the provider that makes it happen. I agree about Ted MacDougall, and Dean Ashton had it as well, as did Holt to a degree. I'm convinced that Pukki will keep on scoring in the PL, as will the others.

 

I also noticed how much of our goals in the last few weeks were in and about the edge of the area. I imagine this was mainly because teams were clogging their area up with bodies we had to strike from further out.

 

Surely a distinction needs drawing between the style and the execution of the style? I don't think anybody is advocating a change of style; the concern is that our execution of the style is flawed in ways that will be exploited even more in the PL than in the Championship. It isn't a question of either continuing with Farkeball or reverting to Hughtonball -- as witness the fact that the two teams who have conceded least in the PL this season by some distance are also the two teams who have scored most goals by some distance.
When Klopp analysed where Liverpool came up short last season, he didn't conclude he needed to improve his attack; he signed Alisson, Van Dijk and Fabinho (a defensive midfielder) and focused on improving his team defensively. I think that's a lead we would do well to follow, on the training pitch as much as in the transfer market.

 

As you can clearly see from the stats I posted a couple of days ago, our GA is quite worrying, though it has improved this year - ie since Derby.
IMO, we still concede too many soft goals and I'm certain that that is something that DF and his coaches will be working on when the players return after their well-deserved summer holidays.

 

Great post Robbie. As JMF says our GA is a concern going into the PL. Farke said a few days back that the approach has to develop to meet new challenges - if you stay the same you will be found out. That doesn't mean parking the bus, but rather tweaking the approach to strengthen us defensively without diminishing our goal scoring capacity or ability to move the ball through the thirds. We already have a CB in Godfrey who can also play as a DM and Ajayi would be another. Even Tettey sometimes drops back into defence when we're defending a lead, then moving forward when the ball is won. That makes it much more difficult for the opposition to attack while also preserving our ability to counterattack, which I think we will need to be doing far more often in the PL. The example of Liverpool is well made Robbie.

 

I've not seen anything of Ajayi apart from Rotherham (A) via a stream. In view of that statsbomb video clip featuring Roofe running through our entire central defence, I'd say we need the next Ngolo Kante

 

Given that we haven't got that kind of money to spend, we're going to need another way with the players we do have. If we go into the PL defending the way we have we'll suffer some heavy defeats. Just think back to that 7-0 drubbing at Citeh. For me, as I've said before, it requires a 3rd CB who moves up into a DM when the ball is won and we counterattack.

 

Equally apt, would be Arsenal in the latter stages of Wenger's reign. It had been obvious for years that their defence needed sorting. Who did Arsene bring in? Lacazette and Aubameyang!

 

It's worth mentioning ( apologies if everyone thinks it obvious) that we are approaching a 38 game season. As such we can't expect the same number of goals. Pukki's 29 corresponds to 25 over 38 games. I'm not sure whether the thirty per cent Premiership discount relates to the fewer games or not. So we might expect 17-19.

 

Yes, it's easy to lose sight of the 8 fewer games, which on top of the tougher league, is why I went with 15-20.

 

Ok, so I just narrowed it down a bit. But I think that your figure would be most acceptable. Anything above the lower end would be great if the other scorers made a pro rata contribution.

 

Your maths are probably more precise than mine!

 

I still think that if he gets even as few as 12/13 or so it will be a very good season and will give us a very good chance of surviving.

 

I think that if we can keep GA to within 150% of goals scored then we would survive. Burnley, Southampton and Brighton are all within the 150-60% range.

 

There's a lot of support in the literature for the idea that goal ratio (GF:GA) is a more reliable indicator of relative performance than goal difference (GD). Judging by the past few seasons, your 150% looks a reasonable rule of thumb. That said -- and in keeping with the title of this thread -- imagine scoring 2 goals every game, having a goals scored/goals conceded ratio of 1.5 -- and being relegated with 0 points !!!!!

 

More seriously, the relationship between goals and points is, to say the least, complex. Here are a couple of illustrations from the 2013--2014 EPL season:

Newcastle GF 38 GA 59 GD -16 GR(atio) 1.37 Points 49 Final position 10th
West Brom GF 38 GA 59 GD -16 GR(atio) 1.37 Points 36 Final position 17th

C Palace GF 33 GA 48 GD -15 GR(atio) 1.45 Points 45 Final position 11th
Hull City GF 38 GA 53 GD -15 GR(atio) 1.39 Points 37 Final position 16th

The moral is that, when it comes to accumulating points, goals (scored or conceded) are not all equal!

 

It's big wins/losses that skew the figures. Imagine a five nil win followed by three one nil defeats. A GD of +2 and a points average of 0.75. Reverse the results and you get GD of -2 and 2.25 points per game. The only thing is that this isn't very likely to happen in either direction.