Premiership Predictor - Top and Bottom

I have been having a go on the BBC EPL Predictor to try and work out what is going to happen at both ends of the table.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm

I went through the process 5 times (only takes a few minutes) to get an average result that can be expected to be slightly more reliable. Of course the outcome I came up with is only a very rough guess and anything could happen. It will just be interesting to see what actually happens. Here are my results:

1. In all 5 attempts the EPL winner was either Man Utd or Arsenal with no more than 2 points separating them. In all cases the 2nd place team was at least 7 points clear of the third

2. In all 5 attempts Tottenham failed to get in the top 4

3. In all 5 attempts Wolves were relegated

4. In all 5 attempts Wigan were relegated

5. 1 in 5 attempts Stoke were relagted

6. 1 in 5 attempts Fulham were relegated

7. 2 in 5 attempts WBA were relegated

8. 1 in 5 attempts Blackpool were relegated

9. in all attempts Liverpool finished in 6th place

Conclusion:

The title race comes down to Man Utd and Arsenal. Man Utd have to play Chelsea twice and it was the difference between winning both games or winning one and losing one that made the difference. I now believe that the title is in Chelseas' hands - should they take 4 points from Utd then Arsenal will probably win the title

I can't really believe the one prediction that says Stoke can get relegated as they look a fairly solid mid table team. Likewise with Fulham who have gone on a good little run lately. I also can't believe that neither West Ham nor Birmingham are predicted to go down because clearly both are in peril. However, West Brom look like they are in serious trouble with very few points picked up in the last 15 games and they could well be the one to drop.

Prediction:

Based on the 5 attempts I carried out

Top 4: Arsenal
Man Utd
Chelsea
Man City

Bottom 3: Wigan
Wolves
WBA

So, lovely people, I invite you to have a go and post your results below. Please be as honest and non biased as you can be because the idea is to get an accurate picture of what we collectively think is going to happen

 

Top 4

United 89 pts
Arsenal 85 pts
Chelsea 78 pts
Citeh 72 pts


The drop

WBA 31 pts
Wolves 29 pts
Wigan 26 pts

Maybe we won't be 11 ahead of Chelsea. In fact I'm not sure on the pts total of any of those teams, Wolves for example will probably get more than 8 pts between now and end of season, and WBA will definitely get more than 5..dunno what I was thinking..but I do think that's how it'll finish position wise.

 

so we both agree on the bottom 3 - interesting

and we agree on the Top 2 but in reverse order - how they end up will depend on the big games between Chelsea/Man U. City/ManU and Arsenal/Man U

 

I will re-do the prediction following the weekend results to see what difference one set of matches make

 

My Top 6

1 Man United 81
2 Arsenal 80
3 Chelsea 74
4 Man City 72
5 Spurs 67
6 Liverpool 58


My Bottom 6

15 Fulham 42
16 West Ham 39
17 Blackpool 39
-----------------------
18 West Brom 38
19 Wolves 37
20 Wigan 32

It'll be fun to see how far off i am
Not sure how i ended up giving wigan only 6 points from the rest of the season

 

1 Man Utd 81
2 Chelsea 78
3 Arsenal 72
4 Tottenham 71
5 Man City 67
6 Sunderland 59
7 Liverpool 58


18 Wigan 31
19 West Ham 30
20 West Brom 30

 

so you think West Ham will only pick up 6 points for the rest of the season from 13 games? Interesting prediction as they already have 24 from 25. I would have thought 12 points was more likely.

I reckon you must be a Chelsea fan from your prediction. Am I right?

 

Tottenham made top 4 = Spurs fan

 

waht a load of tosh, chelsea second, tottenham 4th....

 

i liek the idea of arsenal winning. But im sure like always we'll loose the smaller games and win the hard ones. Hope we beat spurs and the game is at the end of the season when they need to win to get 4th. Icing on the cake

 

Arsenal 81 pts
Man Utd 80 pts
Chelsea 77 pts
Man City 71 pts
Tottenham 69 pts
Liverpool 61 pts
...
Stoke 42 pts -9
Wolves 41 pts -15
Aston Villa 41 pts -17
Birmingham 41 pts -18
West Brom 41 pts -20
Fulham 40 pts -6
West Ham 40 pts -14
Wigan 33 pts -31

its very close at the bottom...