Daily Racing Thread Saturday 13th. Oct. 2018

Saturday's Meetings

Limerick
Flat 8 Races 1:05-5:05p.m.
Hexham
N/H 7 Races 1:40-5:10p.m.
Newmarket
Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:25p.m.
Chepstow
N/H 8 Races 1:55-5:55p.m.
Fairyhouse
N/H 7 Races 2:00-5:30p.m.
York
Flat 7 Races 2:05-5:35p.m.
Chelmsford(E)
A/W 8 Races 5:45-9:15p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Will go with MASTER TOMMYTUCKER 3.35 Chepstow, currently 2/1 fav. My reasoning for this one is highlighted on the Cheltenham Ante Post thread. Have taken 40/1 on him in the RSA.

Likes soft so all this rain in his favour too.

 

Opposing you in that mick , Poetic Rythym , winner of persian war here last year , obviously aimed for this , two from two at the track , 3/1
Step Back 4/1 for bradstocks to beat Thomas Patrick in the 5 05

 

Got to stay up due to early call out in middle of night...so had an interest in one of the Australian races!

3.55am [Caulfield] Leather n Lace

Each Way @ 9-2 [Skybet]

 

Zetland Stakes 1.50 Newmarket

Sydney Opera House has been the one for money with Waldstern deposed as the favourite for this stamina sapping 10F race.

The Racing Post have the O'Brien colt top rated by 5 lbs and he is a whopping 16 lbs clear of the Gosden colt on their ratings. That makes Waldstern seem to have a fair bit on his plate here.

Funnily enough, Kew Gardens was O'Brien's first ever winner of the race last season and the year before that Coronet was Gosden's only winner of the race.

A few people I have spoken to thought Norway was good looking last time out but I'm not so enthused at the odds he is.

The thing with this race is there are few horses ever proven at the trip due to the dearth of races at this distance. I reckon this year's renewal could be a potential upset and it's not one I could crack into anything with any strong confidence.

I decided to take a fun punt at bigger odds and will give Mark Johnston's I'll Have Another at 16/1.

The Johnston filly has a consistent profile and ran a decent race off top weight of 9st 10lb in a good Nursery at Newmarket last time. That represented a 96 handicap mark and she was raised 3 lbs for her effort. In theory she has 7lbs to find with Sydney Opera House on the RPR figures but she is 9 lbs higher than Waldstern as we sit and while she is 16/1, he sits at 5/2.

Maybe others have more scope but this is a long way for 2YO's and some may not get home. The last two runs have seen I'll Have Another finishing in the style of a horse who would appreciate further. Mark Johnston had a few entered here but she is the one he left in. With a good jockey up, perhaps she will outrun her odds. The leading two in the betting look way skinny for me.

I'll Have Another 16/1 for me.

 

There is a group 2 at Maison-Laffitte ( 2.50) where the home team challenge looks frankly pathetic and the UK raiders dominate the betting.

Legends Of War made a very taking debut at Yarmouth but it didn't quite pan out for the Gosden colt, a son of Scat Daddy, afterwards.

Legends Of War was an expensive buy and was prominent in the Coventry betting before being usurped by the later injured Calyx, who went on to win the Royal Ascot race in good style, despite seeming to be drawn on the "Wrong" side of the track.

Legends Of War is short enough on the tissue, so I want to take him on.

Getting real odds seems to be like drawing teeth for races in France but there may be better value in Simon Crisford's Sporting Chance, a son of Kodiac who seems to have improved in landing his last two races. He has won at Maison Lafitte before and has handled cut in the ground.

The other interesting one is Hello Youmzain, who skipped the two year old trophy at Redcar for no apparent reason. Was he kept for this tougher looking Group 2 assignment instead?

I'll make a pick when I see real odds available but I can't get over the lousy looking French representation here. There seems a very limited amount of talent over the Channel this season and that's been the case for a little while now.

 

Two bets for me in the Cesarewitch tomorrow:

Cliffs of Dover 40/1 e.w 6 places
Stargazer 66/1 e.w 7 places

Cliffs of Dover has been running well on the flat and the horse will have good to firm ground which should be ideal. Very talented horse that has a good each way chance at a nice price.

Stargazer was a decent horse when at Michael Stoutes and tben sadly picked up an injury. Still has bags of talent and is going to be ridden by a leading apprentice who takes 3lbs off. I think the lively ground will help ensure he gets the trip. Massive price and nice each way bet.

 

On Future Champions Day at HQ, the form pick in the opening Zetland Stakes must be Royal Lodge runner-up Sydney Opera House, although he was the stable’s third string that day in a Ballydoyle clean sweep. His stablemate Norway, easy winner of a mile maiden at Naas when the stable’s second string, cannot be discounted with Seamie Heffernan keeping the ride. Last term, the subsequent St Leger winner was victorious here. Waldstern, from the Gosden yard that know a thing or two about Leger winners, is not easily ignored after being beaten at odds-on by Kadar last time.

The opener could provide useful clues for later as the Autumn Stakes features Kadar, conqueror of Waldstern on debut and sticking to the mile in this Group 3. Ballydoyle are represented by three and the jockey booking suggest Naas maiden race winner Magna Grecia is the most fancied ahead of the more experienced Circus Maximus and Western Australia. Kingman colt Persian King travels over from France with a reputation and the odds reflect that and his trainer, not known for travelling just for fun.

Royal Lodge winner Mohawk is one of three representing Aidan O’Brien (the five defectors from the five day declarations were all from Ballydoyle’s eight) but the most fancied is top-rated Anthony Van Dyck, runner-up to Quorto in the National Stakes. On that occasion Christmas and Mohawk were both behind and the former appeared to be employed as pacemaker. Too Darn Hot comes here unbeaten in three starts including the Solario Stakes and the Champagne Stakes. The impeccably-bred son of Dubawi won easily at Doncaster where something appeared to be amiss with his main market rival and is going to be hard to beat. Also coming here unbeaten is SANGARIUS, ready winner of a listed race over the same trip the day before Too Darn Hot, and looking the uncomplicated type that could find the improvement. Advertise should acquit himself well here but the concern is the absence since winning the Phoenix Stakes in August.

No idea what slow old plodder is going to collect the Cesarewitch – surely it cannot be Aidan O’Brien’s blue blood as it would be ante post favourite for the 2019 Triumph Hurdle.

 

Unplaced

 

My arrows for today.
2.05 York Alternative Fact
2.25 New Massam
3.15 York Teruntum Star
3.40 New Whiskey Sour (8 places Skybet)
EW Lucky 15 and ew singles.
I’m out in town from 1200 hours with a few work colleagues. Hope to catch the racing in 1 or 2 of Liverpool’s fine drinking establishments. Good luck all, have a great weekend.

 

JUST IN TIME 20/1 6 places yum yum!

 

As one said earlier in the week one that one is most looking forward to seeing make his hurdling bow this weekend is PYM (1.55 Chepstow). Trained by the Lieutenant and ably assisted by his Privates you can guarantee that this one will know what is required first time over timber.

Pym’s first run, back in April ’17, was in the Bumper at Ayr’s ‘Scottish National’ meet which the Lieutenant loves so much – 4 wins since 2010 which include the legendary Sprinter Sacre and subsequent Listed winner William Henry. Pym won that day but was then off the course for 10 months. Term 2017/18 was a bit ‘stop start’ but he ran well giving weight to Mr Nicholls’ highly regarded Danny Kerwan (beaten 2 lengths when conceding 7 lbs) and then finished 9th, at Grade 2 level, when the ground was probably too soft for him at Aintree on the eve of the old Grand National.

Bumpers would have been this old boys introduction to the sport, his hors d'oeuvres if you like, jumping obstacles will be his main course, team. The Lieutenant actually won this Chepstow heat back in ’15 for the same owner (Patricia Pugh, what a lovely name for an owner by the way) with none other than Altior and after 13 further races he remains unbeaten over hurdles and fences! I expect lightening to strike twice and Pym to give the Lieutenant and Mrs Pugh another win in this contest, people.

Good luck all.

 

A quick note about Rhoselli Down yesterday. Was disappointed to see her finish a 3 lenghts 9th in the 7f Newmarket maiden. I’d put this down to a blip (maybe it came too soon after her opening run, maybe she didn’t handle Newmarket’s undulations, I don’t know) and still see her one to follow after her hugely encouraging debut at Newbury last month.

I think if she had reproduced that level of form she would have won doing the proverbial handstands. What made the result even more frustrating was the odds-on shot in the race also played little part (finished 10th) and so wouldn’t have been a factor had Rhoselli Down been on form. Also, the old girls unconsidered stable mate (40/1 in the market) was only beaten a short head and a neck in the race – at the odds Rhoselli Down and Fragrant Dawn were you can confidently say the former was ‘expected’ to emerge on top.

Anyway, I’ll stop whining and say once again I think she remains one to follow.

 

Not trying to sound like a pompous newscaster but I wiil say. And finally…Iniesta at Bath next Wednesday will be guaranteed a run (number 8 of 44 in the handicap) should connections decide to target this race. Found’s full brother off 67, people. The mind it boggles…well mine does at any rate.

The same barns Royal King much less likely to get a run at Kempton the previous evening (way down at number 31 and only top 14 make it), unfortunately.

If they do go I’d like to think both would be big prices.

 

Two in the 3.40 cliffs of Dover, Uber cool.
In the dewhurst advertise.
Cheers.

 

I am not a big fan of the Ces but I liked the look of Vis A Vis.

You would think Neil Mulholland's horse will be aimed at the jumping game in time but he's unexposed and looked as if he would appreciate this trip last time. He has a workable weight to carry and a leading jockey on board.

Just In Time is tied in with Vis A Vis and should also go well but he renews rivalry on 7 lbs worse terms now for a two and three quarter length beating because of his revised mark for landing two races since. Vis A Vis also looked the likelier stayer of the the two but KIng's horse is highly respected as a horse who would be going for five on the trot had he not bumped into the Mulholland runner.

3.40 Newmarket Vis A Vis 11/1 on the nose.