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"Something for the Weekend, Sir?" 30th/31st Jan 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by OddDog, Jan 27, 2021.

  1. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    This weekend is dominated by trials day at Cheltenham and ITV's main channel is showing 4 races from Prestbury Park plus 3 races from Doncaster.

    Cheltenham's 7 race card opens with the Grade 2 Finesse Juvenile Hurdle which has thrown up 2 of the last 6 Triumph winners in Peace And Co and Defi Du Seuil. It looks a good renewal this time around with the first two from the rearranged Grade 1 Finale Hurdle at Chepstow, Nassalam and Adagio, both entered. Adagio has to give 5lbs to Gary Moore's charge and Nassalam is slight favourite at the time of writing ahead of Sage Advice (Dr Newland) and Heross Du Seuil (Mr Henderson) who represent two of the forum's favourite trainers. Another of interest is Honneur D'Ajonc who had Heross Du Seuil held at Kempton when tipping up at the last but it seems to revolve around the front two and I think Adagio can cement his Triumph claims here.

    The novices handicap chase has perhaps lost relevance for the festival but Severano ran a race full of promise last time, as did Espoir De Romay, who finished 2nd to Royale Pagaille at Haydock. This ought to be a race well worth watching back for pointers for the spring.

    The Cotswold Chase has (frustratingly) become another race overshadowed by Nicky Henderson um-ing and ah-ing over whether to run his charge - this really is becoming quite tiresome - and we still don't know whether Santini will bid to follow up last year's victory. If he doesn't turn up then Bristol De Mai and Native River ought to have it between them. Paisley Park ought to have little trouble taking the Cleeve Hurdle.

    There is a fine supporting card at Doncaster with three Grade 2s including Shishkin's latest attempt to avoid a serious rival, the Yorkshire Rose Mares Hurdle and the River Don (which flows through my home town) Novice Hurdle over 3 miles. The listed Sky Bet Handicap Chase is the 3rd televised race and the chances of Cap Du Nord are plain for all to see - he was second behind Royale Pagaille at Kempton and well clear of subsequent winner Double Shuffle in third.

    Sunday's highlights are at Naas with the Grade 3 Limestone Lad Hurdle and a Grade 3 novice chase over 3 miles. The former sees a couple of interesting Mullins entries - Bachasson back over hurdles and the mare Buildmeupbuttercup but it is anyone's guess as to who will run. In the novice chase Asterion Forlonge will be hoping to make it past the first fence but even if he does he may find things difficult as this looks a decent race.

    Of course everything is dependent upon the weather. Cheltenham is already soft, heavy in places with more rain forecast (although not a deluge). It ought to be soft with heavy patches - just plain old winter ground and nothing to get overly-anxious about. Doncaster is good-soft, soft in places with some rain due today and tomorrow so ought to be fine with soft / good-soft in places likely. Naas will be testing.
     
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  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Timeform's Tony McFadden highlights five stars with entries in Britain and Ireland this weekend.

    2 in particular that I need to win

    Shishkin - 13:30 Doncaster (Saturday)
    This is a vintage crop of novice chasers, but Shishkin sits at the top of the pile after producing a stunning, top-class performance in the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at Kempton last month.

    Shishkin won by 13 lengths in a time that compared favourably to what Champion Chase contender Nube Negra clocked later on the card, and he ran to a higher level than most Arkle winners.

    The Timeform 'large P' attached to Shishkin's rating of 165P indicates that he is open to significant improvement, though it's unlikely he will advance his lofty rating in the Lightning Novices' Chase at Doncaster as he probably won't face a rival good enough to make him work hard.

    Shishkin should come through Saturday's assignment with the minimum of fuss, setting up a fascinating Festival showdown with Energumene (160p).

    Paisley Park - 15:35 Cheltenham (Saturday)
    Paisley Park has won the Cleeve Hurdle for the past two seasons and it will be difficult for his rivals to prevent the hat-trick.

    The Cleeve Hurdle, contested over Cheltenham's stamina-sapping New Course, offers a stern test that plays to the strength of Paisley Park. In fact, his 12-length defeat of West Approach in the race two seasons ago was arguably a career-best effort.

    Paisley Park started this campaign with a question to answer after he flopped in last season's Stayers' Hurdle and was found to have an irregular heartbeat. However, the signs this season have been extremely encouraging as he wasn't beaten far when attempting to give Thyme Hill 3 lb on his return, and he then gamely reversed the form off level weights in the Long Walk at Ascot last time.

    Paisley Park is penalised for that Grade 1 success but is still comfortably clear on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the Cleeve and should prove difficult to beat.
     
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  3. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Oddy I am glad you mentioned the Juvenile Hurdle, because I think Honneur d'Ajonc is a stonking each way bet in that race. He was trading at 1.15 when he fell with the race at his mercy last time. The horse he was racing with that day was Heross who isn't jocked up in this race and is two thirds the price!! 8/1 looks a fair EW bet.

    I have also done an Each Way double on Saint Calvados in the Cotswold and Miranda in the mares hurdle at Doncaster. The former I think is the interesting horse in the Cotswold given his run over christmas and Miranda is up against a pair of Henderson horses. I like her form.
     
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  4. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Looks like Cheltenham did indeed catch plenty of rain in the last 24 hours and there is now standing water on the track. Precautionary inspection at 2pm on Friday.

    https://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html
     
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  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    We had loads of rain overnight, so this doesn't surprise me. I think with rain and snow in the forecast for the rest of the week, we are going to be frustrated again by the weather. Interestingly I don't think Cheltenham racecourse are as bothered about running races in the lockdown as other courses might be!
     
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  6. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    " the River Don (which flows through my home town)."
    So are you a Sheffielder or a Flatlander, Oddy?
     
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  7. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Sheffield Tam - born in Stocksbridge and then we moved to neighbouring Deepcar when I was 8 <ok>
     
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  8. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    I loved Sheffield, Oddy, and I should never have left. Such easy access up the Snake into Derbyshire, and great socially. Like most towns and cities, it’s a built-up mess to what it was in the sixties and seventies. Happy days!
     
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  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Happy days indeed Tam
     
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