With rearranged races and fixtures, this coming Saturday is shaping up to be a "Super Saturday" with ITV4 showing a whopping 10 races across 3 venues. At Kempton Park, the star turn (and for me the most exciting horse in training right now) is Imperial Aura in the Silviniaco Conti Chase. The 2m 4.5f Grade 2 event has attracted 11 entries and Kim Bailey's charge is 7/4 fav in the ante post markets, from Mister Fisher at 5/2 and Riders On The Storm at 6/1. Imperial Aura has been imperious in his 2 starts at this intermediate trip this season and should be well up to taking this en route to the Ryanair Chase - even though I would love to see him in the Champion Chase this season. Mister Fisher won the rearranged Peterborough Chase at Cheltenham, is officially rated just 1lb inferior to Imperial Aura and should make this a thorough examination. The rest of the field are more exposed and have been in and out of form over the last 12-18 months - the likes of Aso, Cepage, Clondaw Castle, Keeper Hill, Master Tommytucker, Riders Onthe Storm and Top Notch, Mengli Khan (who still seems to be finding his feet at Seven Barrows) and surprise Old Roan winner Nuts Well. This should be a very interesting race and hopefully Imperial Aura can continue to progress and impress. Also on the Kempton card we have the rearranged Relkeel Hurdle where Mcfabulous heads the market - back down in trip after a fine 3rd in the Long Distance Hurdle. I like the look of Thomas Darby's chances here, hopefully he can eke out a bit of improvement to get past his Aintree conqueror Summerville Boy, who reopposes. Later on the card the Lanzarote Hurdle is typically competitive and Lieutenant Henderson has a number of interesting entries - albeit the yard remains under a cloud at present. In addition to these 3 races ITV is also showing the handicap chases at 1.10 (over 2m 4f) and 1.45 (3 miles). The going at Kempton is currently soft and the forecast is for lower temperatures and potentially some snow showers on Friday and Saturday so fingers crossed. Chepstow plans to stage its abandoned highlight Welsh National card and the going is heavy underneath the frost covers. With a low of -2 forecast Friday night and a high of only 3 on Saturdaay the covers will have to do their job. ITV are planning to show the Welsh National and the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle and in both races stamina will clearly be to the fore. In the Juvenile Hurdle we are unlikely to see any Irish horses due to the C-word so Gary Moore's Nassalam, twice a facile wide-margin winner, will likely be a warm order. Talking horse is Paul Nicholls Houx Gris, for whom his trainer says "the more rain the better". The Welsh National market has a relatively short-priced fav in Evan Williams' Secret Reprieve who hosed up in the track's trial on Dec 5th and is 8lbs well in on official ratings after the original weights for the race were retained. Sounds like a certain Native River a few years ago The third televised meeting on ITV is Wincanton who are currently soft, good-soft in places and are deploying frost covers today. The 3 races being shown are the rearranged Dipper Novices Chase and a couple of handicap chases. The Dipper has 7 entries headed by the exciting Protektorat at a best-priced 11-8. Dan Skelton's charge is 2-2 over fences and hosed up at Cheltenham last time from Southfield Stone (has since been well beaten in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup). Paul Nicholls will have another crack at Protektorat with either Hitman (Skelton will have a line on him through Allmankind) or Strategem (who fell at the first last time and might need this). Alan King saddles the 2016 Challow winner Messire Des Obeaux who has clearly had issues but made an encouraging return with victory over course and distance a few weeks ago and is a player here. Sunday's racing in the UK is rather ordinary fayre but over in Ireland Naas hosts the Grade 1 Lawlor's of Naas Novices Hurdle over 2m 4f. The race has an impressive roll of honour in its relatively short history with Golden Cygnate, Mikael D'haguenet, Monksland, Rule The World, Death Duty and Envoi Allen all having taken the race. As expected there are multiple entries from Mullins and Elliot but a number of these ran at Leopardstown over Christmas and so are unlikely to turn out here again. Perhaps Jessica Harrington's Ashdale Bob can therefore add his name to the winners list?
McFabulous odds against. That’ll do for me. In my book he travelled like the best horse when behind Thyme Hill and Paisley Park, before not getting home. Drops back in trio and down against opposition that is weaker than that. Course, distance and conditions should all suit. Really surprised he’s 11/8
Last 14 days Wins: 4 Runs: 20 (20%) Since win flat: 16 runs 738 days Since win jumps: 2 runs 8 days It's not so bad.
His average over the last 5 seasons (jumps only) is a 25% win strike rate - so 20% in the last 2 weeks has to be seen as a bit of a negative. At least he doesn't have to worry about Might Bite any more - he has been retired
Timeform identify five of the most interesting horses set to run this Saturday. Write ups in the link above for each of: Secret Reprieve Nassalam’ McFabulous Imperial Aura Hitman
It might only be Kempton that is on come Saturday. The weather forecast for Chepstow and Wincanton is decidedly iffy to say the least over next 2 days. I can see inspections being called right up to 11am on the day at both these courses. That's assuming Chepstow gets past tomorrow's inspection first. Fingers crossed the weather temperatures aren't as bad as predicted as it promises to be a real super Saturday. Let's be honest it's been midweek dross only so far since last weekend.
