1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

The 2016 Arkle

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by OddDog, Jan 20, 2016.

  1. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    28,681
    Likes Received:
    10,471
    The 2016 Arkle Challenge Trophy

    The Arkle Challenge Trophy (or simply "The Arkle" as it is more commonly known) is the 2 mile championship race for novice chasers and is run on the Tuesday of the festival over 2 miles on the old course, with 13 fences to be jumped. The race is named in memory of the great Arkle, whose statue can be seen at the course:

    please log in to view this image


    As the race is for novices, there have been no multiple winners, but some of the greatest chasers in the history of the sport have lifted this coveted prize - Sprinter Sacre, Sizing Europe, Moscow Flyer, Pendil, Flyingbolt and Fortria to name but a few. The most successful jockey in the race is Barry Geraghty with 4 wins, and the most successful trainer title is shared by Tom Dreaper and Nicky Henderson with 5 wins apiece. Whilst the race demands speed and accurate jumping from young novices, it has also thrown up some notable stayers such as Tidal Bay, My Way de Solzen and Alverton.

    With the introduction of the JLT Novices Chase over 2m5f, ante post punters are often left wondering whether their fancy will head to the Arkle or the longer race, so the market can be quite fluid until final targets are clarified. However, as last year with Un De Sceaux, we have a very clear, short-priced horse trained by Willie Mullins at the top of the market, namely last year’s Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Douvan.

    Prices as of 20th January (Bet 365):

    Douvan 8/13
    L’ami Serge 7/1
    Vaniteux 8/1
    Ar Mad 12/1
    Killultagh Vic 14/1
    Garde La Victoire 16/1
    20/1 Bar

    As with the Supreme, this is a very restrictive ante post market with little value left and huge uncertainty around which horses will actually run. The races closes for entries on Jan 26th so expect to see full entries published on the 27th with supplementary stage on March 9th.


    The 2016 Cheltenham Festival Megathread
     
    #1
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 31, 2016
    Ron and Ste D like this.
  2. Bostonbob

    Bostonbob Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2012
    Messages:
    7,147
    Likes Received:
    1,080
    Douvan will win well.

    Ar Mad the each way value at 12/1
     
    #2
    OddDog likes this.
  3. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    28,681
    Likes Received:
    10,471
    I've just now placed an e/w bet on Gordon Elliot's The Game Changer at 16/1 NRNB (1/4 odds 1,2,3). He will only run if the ground is decent (hence the NRNB proviso) and here is what Gordon Elliot says about him:

    "He'll go for the Arkle all being well and the better the ground the better chance he'd have. Douvan will be very hard to beat, but if the ground dries out he'd have an each-way chance. He's had a wind operation since the last day and we're really looking forward to it. He was bleeding, so we moved him outside and he lives there now. He seems to be a different horse since we moved him outside. The ground is the key to him, if it came up softish on the first day we wouldn't go with him and we'd wait for Fairyhouse or Aintree."

    He is the second-highest rate horse in the race on 155 (Douvan 161) and is unbeaten in his last 3 starts, all at Grade 3 level. He has plenty of chasing experience, having run 8 times over fences, and has completed all 8, winning 6 and coming 2nd in the other 2. All have been small field affairs, and I think that is what we will get here with only 14 left in and potentially a number running scared of Douvan to the JLT.
     
    #3
  4. stick

    stick Bumper King

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    18,712
    Likes Received:
    10,951
    Has Hobbs cemented Garde Le Victoire's plans yet?
     
    #4
    DreverSpur likes this.
  5. DreverSpur

    DreverSpur Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2011
    Messages:
    1,581
    Likes Received:
    420
    Really hope he keeps him in this Stick.
     
    #5
  6. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    28,681
    Likes Received:
    10,471
    #6
  7. stick

    stick Bumper King

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    18,712
    Likes Received:
    10,951
    Me too. Cracking EW price IMHO.
     
    #7
  8. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2011
    Messages:
    8,657
    Likes Received:
    1,462
    GARDE LA VICTOIRE looks set to put his unbeaten record over fences on the line in the JLT Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham next week with likely ground conditions proving the deciding factor.

    The Philip Hobbs-trained seven-year-old also holds an entry in the Racing Post Arkle on Tuesday, in which he would clash with hot favourite Douvan, but he now looks likely to wait 48 hours and step up to two and a half miles for the JLT.

    Hobbs said: “There is no preference between the races really but we’re slightly leaning towards the JLT due to the ground looking like it is going to dry out and taking into account the weather forecast, which now looks dry following the rain on Wednesday.

    “I appreciate Douvan is frightening the opposition away in the Arkle and they say you should never be scared of one horse but from a ratings point of view Sizing John was brushed aside by him at Leopardstown over Christmas and he has a mark of 151, which is the same as Garde La Victoire. So what chance do we have of beating Douvan?”

    Garde La Victoire is a best priced 9-1 for the JLT Novices’ Chase with Boylesports and a general 14-1 chance for the Racing Post Arkle.

    Rest of Hobbs hopes

    A decision on whether Village Vic, who has won his last two races at Cheltenham, runs in the Ryanair Chase or the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate will be left until nearer the time.

    “He’s very well in himself and has been in the form of is life this season,” said Hobbs. “But we will be leaving the decision as to which race he contests next week until closer to the day as it will be interesting to see what the opposition looks like in the two races.”

    Balthazar King, another of the trainer’s festival stars, is looking to bounce back from an injury sustained in last season’s Grand National when attempting to clock up his sixth success over the Cheltenham cross-country fences in Wednesday’s Glenfarclas-sponsored contest.

    Richard Johnson will ride Balthazar King and also partner Crabbie’s Grand National hope Kruzhlinin for Hobbs in the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase, Rock The Kasbah or Brother Tedd in the Coral Cup and Wait For Me, who will take his chance in the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle.
     
    #8
    beeforsalmon and OddDog like this.
  9. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2011
    Messages:
    5,696
    Likes Received:
    2,846
    Really like Rock the Kasbah in the handicapp
     
    #9
  10. beeforsalmon

    beeforsalmon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2011
    Messages:
    5,432
    Likes Received:
    1,336
    Nice to see you using my preview to flag up winners <laugh> ;)
     
    #10
    OddDog likes this.

  11. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2011
    Messages:
    7,529
    Likes Received:
    1,883
    I have Douvan in a couple of accy's plus Vaniteux @ 14/1 e/w...
     
    #11
  12. stick

    stick Bumper King

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    18,712
    Likes Received:
    10,951
    DOUVAN really has scared them all off!
     
    #12

Share This Page