The 2016 Champion Hurdle

I agree entirely about his jumping. He's **** at jumping. Always has been.

However, no one's having TNO winning his next five races as anything other than him winning bad races. He should be hammering those fields every day of the week. Jezki beat the Fly next time out but again there's holes in that - Fly clearly had an unusual season where he rarely fired. Failing to win the Scottish Champion Hurdle is a failure for MTOY although you could easily say he was over the top that day. It's all reasonable form but it's not great form and if it was any race other than the Champion Hurdle i'd probably not even raise the point but it is the Champion Hurdle so i'm putting it on a pedestal and expecting more.

 

I think it being 5 seconds slower is a concern but that is mainly a result of some clever riding from Ruby and crap riding from the rest of them. Almost like he had them all in his thrall.

 

I've got to say, i'm really glad Faugheen was beaten. I'm interested in this race again whereas i was expecting it to be a bit hum drum.

 

I recorded the side by side, you can see from early on the difference and shows just how soft a lead Faugheen was given, if anything I might have given Faugheen a slight lead from the start.

Jezki won at 3 miles last season and The New One obviously has never been the fastest 2 miler, the slow pace did not suit them at all, they were out sprinted.

 

Good tool that Boris. That one race was faster than the other doesn't make any difference to me. From that viewing though Faugheen was a bad price at evens. Was definitely looking for the line at the end.

I think the soft lead is what matters most. It's like the field were running for a place. His jumping is horrible isn't it.

 

Out sprinted by a P2P winner

 

Faugheen has great tactical speed and he goes up a gear quickly, but its debatable how much energy he would really have left off a Championship gallop especially if his jumping didnt hold up. After his finish yesterday im not sure, he definitely does most of his work on the bridle. If they do the same in the Champion this season he will win again but surely someone must be thinking about making sure its a proper gallop to actually test him out of his comfort zone.

 

Like STH implies it's a weird assumption to suggest he only won because of dictating a sprint. A stronger gallop shouldn't be a problem for a horse with the stamina to win a point to point, a heavy ground 3m race and a Neptune where he duly bolted up the hill (without dictating either). He's just an exceptional horse who can win a sprint and also has stamina to win further.

The best horse wins race shocker!

 

There's a lot of time until the festival so I'm sure many permutations will come and go between now and then. Willie seems to think NC will go CH for definite now and that he was ridden wrong before so take it that he will be ridden on the front end. Has Willie managed to underestimate NC, possibly not a great worker at home? I don't know but it makes it all the more Interesting now as Bob alluded to above.

 

He's not a great work horse STH. Remember the Deloitte where Alisio Ville was absolutely smashed up due to him burning the Closutton gallops up only to get thumped on the track by the clearly non flashy Nichols Canyon.

 

He wasn't 100%. None of them would have been. Bigger horse than NC as well so it will be harder to get him fit so you could be right Oddy.

I love Faugheen but i hate his jumping and for that reason I will probably always look at what's there to beat him rather than back him blind. You'd be daft to ignore how guessy he can be over hurdles. He must be losing ground at each one and eventually he'll get caught out.

 

The New One at 20/1 looks an outstanding bet at the minute. He didnt look right at Haydock before Cheltenham and was injured after it, despite the race not being run to suit he was nowhere near his best on the day.

With Jezki out and My Tent being a 9yo in the new year, TNO who is the same age as Faugheen looks the obvious value, if he was back to his 2014 run he is no 20/1 shot, especially if there is a proper gallop on. He looked in good nick first time out.

Peace And Co won the triumph by a neck and he is single figures, its highly unlikely he will start under 5/1 so not much value in him at this stage.

Id be very surprised if Windsor Park was up to it.

If The New One wins his usual races he will be going off single figures in a shallow looking division.

The horse deserves to win a Champion Hurdle imo, he was the best horse in 2014.

 

I agree Oddy, I thought he was fat as a pig!

 

Jumping was no worse than it has been. Whats more concerning is he hung and ran almost green. Possibly the ground combined with his condition?

 

I repeat, he was napping. Once Mullins discovers why I'm sure he'll sort it. Until then I'm hanging fire on my views; except to say that Faugheen could have gone past had he wanted to. Question is - why did he not want to? I think it's the first time he has raced against NC away from home and that may be why he didn't want to go past. Form readers will laugh at this but people who know how horses think, won't.

Time will tell.

Having said that I still have concerns as to just how good Faugheen is. It's not as though he coasted to victory in the Champion so we have to question how he would have fared had it been run at the pace of the 2014 Champion. Thanks for that video Joe. Would be great to see some other comparisons using that technique.

 

Ron's reminded me about that bollocks from the camp about a midweek gallop between Faugheen and NC. I don't believe that took place.

 

I agree Bob, why would you gallop your best two 2 mile hurdlers together

 

I think Arkle and Flyingbolt were galloped together. Damn, I mentioned Arkle but I think I've got away with it.

 

They thought Nicholls Canyon was a 20/24 horse for this year before Sunday's race. So technically they weren't galloping what they felt was their best 2 milers together. Plus, who the **** would even bother second guessing Willie Mullins ???