The 2016 Champion Hurdle

You are welcome. Although i wouldn't be lumping the fav either.

 

No matter what way you dice it up My Tent's got a rancid attitude. He can look the biz against Grade 2/3 animals on flat tracks but he'll never battle for you up that hill. My one line summaries:

Faugheen. Wins it.
Peace & Co. If he strengthens and improves he can look imperious before coming up just short on the big day.
Nichols Canyon. Needs a forceful ride from the front, but he'd be wanting softer ground to hold on for the win.
Arctic Fire. Improved hugely last winter and was hacking all over Jezki at Aintree, needs strong gallop but can't beat Faugheen
My Tent. Bottles it.
The New One. Has already been fully exposed as Grade 2 class at best over 2m.
Windsor Pk. He's in the wrong race if hes in here.
Irving. Off topic sorry.

 

I was convinced before last years CH that Faugheen was a certainty, because I knew he had the best turn of foot, and I also knew he stayed strongly, as was proven when he flew up the hill in the Neptune, not to mention his win over 3 miles. So last years CH being run at a crawl didn't make me question the form, as I was convinced off even a strong pace that he'd win anyways.

The nonsense of crabbing the form because Arctic Fire was 2nd is just that nonsense. Let's not forget how Arctic Fire was travelling all over Jezki at Aintree before tipping up at the last. AF is a very good horse, and he proved that at both Cheltenham and Aintree last season, even in defeat. His 2nd in the CH was no fluke. Just because a horse shows massive improvement as a 6 year old, it doesn't make the form rubbish. He still showed 2 former CH winners a clean pair of heels up the hill, and would have had Jezki's measure again at Aintree if he'd jumped the last.

That was last season though, and as has been pointed out already horses are not machines. So you would have to be concerned about how Faugheen ran the other day. We all thought Sprinter Sacre would win the next 3 or 4 Champion Chases at a canter when he won his first 1 by miles, but horses don't always retain their ability season after season for various reasons.

I'm not buying the rubbish about him being under cooked for this run, he probably wasn't tuned to the max but he'd of been trained to win the race. I wouldn't have thought Nichols Canyon would have been tuned to the max either so early in the season. Anyone who thinks Willie Mullins would deliberately get a previously unbeaten Champion Hurdler beat on purpose just to get a bigger price wants their heads testing. It's is every trainers dream to train an unbeaten horse that wins G1 after G1. So I'm not sure why he'd want to deliberately lose the unbeaten record.

Nichols Canyon may well just be very good, or Faugheen may have lost some of his sparkle. I'm going to reserve judgement until I see them run again.

Of the others I really like Peace and Co, but the 5 year old record in Champion Hurdles is enough to put me off for now. My Tent Or Yours is a quality horse too, and may well have won the CH, had he been given a better ride by McCoy. Having Geraghty on board this season is a big positive though. Being out for so long is a concern at this stage, but he's in the right hands as has been proven with Bobs Worth and Sprinter Sacre returning to form for the same trainer.

So I'm well and truly sitting on the fence for now, until I see a few more runs. I think it's naive to be nailing your colours to any horse this early.

And as for Stick and Joe already tipping up The New One, you've gotta love the loyalty but I still think your bonkers! Even Joe himself stated he only sided with him last year through loyalty, yet now here he is tipping him up again. As I told you guys before last years CH, he is far to slow to win any CH, and has been found out for gears both years when the pace has quickened. NTD is wasting yet another year of this horses career if he continues to pursue a race that he has no chance of winning. Go for the World Hurdle, atleast with Jezki now out he'd have a realistic chance in that race

 

The New One barely gets 2m4, far too much speed for the World Hurdle.

 

Is this the same horse who was done for pace initially when they quickened in the Neptune over 2m5, and then stayed on past everything once the hill kicked in?

The World Hurdle should have always been the target after that victory, as he won like a horse who would appreciate further, and he's not really built to improve over fences

 

I suspect Faugheen will win this from the front. Pity Douvan won't be there. That's the one I'd have been on. Peace and Co has only run on soft. If it's good going then it would be interesting to know if he's likely to be significantly better on a sounder surface. If so that would be of interest, although he'll be barely 5 years old.

 

If NC does indeed go the CH route, he will want to lead now also. Team Mullins stated today they felt Faugheen was primed for the run and they felt NC might need the run, make of that what you will. Anyway, a long way off yet and a lot of racing to be seen so I wouldn't be getting overly carried away.

I see no reason MTOY can't be on the premises if you are going by the times of previous year's, he would have a squeak so good luck with that bet. Have to dream big to win big and all that and if he does cone out and hack up in his lead up run's, then takin 20's now could look smart business come March all going to plan.

 

I hope Mullins sends all of his big three otherwise it could be a bit of a **** race.

Would like to see someone properly stretch them out from the front at a real good gallop to give Faugheen the opportunity to fully silence the doubters.

 

Have just backed MTOY 25/1ew NRNB- no hope in beating the machine but could be some nice place money! If he can learn to settle abit better! His injuries don't bother me it's bit like Simonsig not one big issue just lots of niggling ones so the talent should be there still!!

 

There is horse in that line up who no one has considered but you might in a couple of weeks time

 

Florida, is it the Ewart horse? He seems really excited about him.

 

Toppy I'm keeping my cards close to my chest

 

Must be him !! Is the only one left in the field who we don't really know much about!!

 

Woolly you know about him.he may have another engagement at the festival but we will find out in a week or two

 

Has to be that world hurdle prospect then, Camping Ground?

 

There was a bit in the racing post where Leighton aspell suggested to the trainer that he thinks the horse has the speed for the champion hurdle. We will soon find out at HQ.