The 2016 Not 606 Cheltenham Preview Evening

The 2016 Not 606 Cheltenham Preview Evening


Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls, prepare to be dazzled by this year’s offerings from the forum’s finest. After days of studying, dissecting each race with laser-like precision, the panel members have searched their souls and offer to you the ultimate guide to this year’s festival. Here is your panel:


beeforsalmon (BS) – “did he mention he likes Willie Mullins?”

Bostonbob (BB) – “Mr bada-bing and his beach balls”

NassauBoard (NB) – “King of the stats”

Odddog (OD) – “did he mention he likes Thistlecrack?”

Sir Barney Chuckles (SBC) – officially a non-runner but I have added a couple of nuggets

Stick (S) – “Bumper King and tipster extraordinaire”

Tamerlo (TA) – “The thinking-man’s tipster”

TopClass (TC) – “Who can forget his 87-1 Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere?”

Woolcombe-folly-007 (WF) – “The James Bond of tipsters, firing words faster than bullets”


1. The Oscars

Banker of The Festival

(BB) Douvan Arkle

(BS) At around10/11LIMINI screams banker. Should be an absolute hack up job, and was of course the very first name on my jumpers to follow list put up in October when I said she'd win this race and was 8/1 at the time. She's a star.

(NB) Douvan.

(OD) Only 1 answer for me here – Thistlecrack in the World Hurdle. He has everything you look for in a banker – travels, jumps, stays and has a superb turn of foot for a horse with such stamina. He is the complete package.

(S) Has to be DOUVAN, bombproof as Bob would say.

(TA) Vroum Vroum Mag. With stamina assured, this progressive mare has the world at her feet. Given that stablemate, Annie Power, goes for the Champion Hurdle, any odds against seems an attractive betting proposition.

(TC) MORE OF THAT - Just looks very classy and at home as a chaser.

(WF) Vroum Vroum Mag - Not a bad back up to Annie Power running in this race, is one of the most versatile horses this season run over fences then back to hurdles. You could run her in pretty much any race at the festival and she would be there, thereabouts fighting it out at the line. But out of them all this is the weakest race and the way she dispatched the field at Ascot shows she can do it this side of the pond. 2 question marks you could say is that she has never run on ground with the word Good in it and she has never run at Cheltenham but I fully expect her class to see her through and the fast run pace of the race will set it right up for her.


Lay of The Festival

(BB) Bristol De Mai JLT

(BS) I can't pin point one who I'm mad against so I'll give you a place lay. ALTIOR. Hendo's had about a zillion hot pots turned over in this in the last 20 years. All out to beat a lame Maputo at Cheltenham (a Ferguson horse FFS) this horse looks a staying chaser to me.

(NB) Annie Power at the prices. Price is wrong.

(OD) Annie Power (Champion Hurdle) - shocking price, bad preparation, dubious form and I just cannot see her winning.

(S) IVANOVICH GORBATOV, how on Earth this is single figures let alone favourite is beyond me. There must be serious yard confidence behind it but I really cannot see it myself.

(TA) Ivanovich Gorbatov. After an impressive debut, he was very disappointing next time out- whatever excuses his connections offer. He seems a false price for what is always a very difficult race to predict.

(TC) BRISTOL DE MAI - Ground against him- better opposition.

(WF) Altior - Every year there is a horse that is meant to be Britain's number one hope in the Supreme with some big reputation and every year they disappoint more than Andriy Schevchenko did at Chelsea, we have had the likes of Irving and last year L'Ami Serge and Altior fits that bill again. Although proven at the track he will not be able to have things his own way with a fast pace up front, I feel he may just lack what is needed to be competitive.


The Festival dark horse

(BB) Shaneshill JLT

(BS) Sizing Codelco should be a decent 16/1 poke in the Grand Annual. De Bromhead knows how to prepare a 2miler for here.

(NB) Old Guard. One bad run and all that.

(OD) Thistlecrack’s half-brother West Approach has taken time to come to hand this season but showed he is progressing with a taking 2nd behind Unowhatimeanharry in the Pertemps Qualifier at Exeter. West Approach is entered in the final on Thursday but Colin Tizzard rates him highly enough to aim him at the Albert Bartlett 24 hours later, a race in which he can be backed at 100/1.

(S) The JLT is cutting up into a less than competitive affair and the progressive KINGS ODYSSEY at 40/1 is just the type to spring a festival shock. One when you look after and think, why didn't I spot it?

(TC) JOSSES HILL - Trip to be the making of him?

(WF) Sempre Medici - this was a close one between him and Whisper who will improve massively for the better ground and always comes good at this time of the year but my pick looks to be in an easier race with The Machine and Artic Fire being ruled out due to injury. Sempre Medici is a very consistent horse who always gives his running, not say he will win but will love the better ground again than he has been running in, stays further than the trip and as they always are the Champion Hurdle I can see being run at a furious rate which will suit him to the tee, will overturn the form with Old Guard but that race proves he handles the track and again you always get a horse running on from the back up hill and that will be this fellow and a bit of luck in running I can see him getting placed and if he doesn’t win making the winner work all the way up to the line.


The Festival Lazarus / Comeback King

(BB) The Giant Bolster if he goes in a handicap off 139

(BS) Has there been any 15 year olds running in the Festival?!! Old boy Uncle Junior would be roared home if he can run into a place in the Cross Country. What longevity Mullins has gotten out of this old warrior.

(NB) Really hope Balthazar King is the one, not for the win but to run very well. The place would go mad if he won.

(OD) My Tent Or Yours, so cruelly denied by Jezki 2 years ago, will right that wrong and win the Champion Hurdle after an absence of 703 days.

(S) One of my favourites SIRE DE GRUGY. If that Irish fella thinks the two English ex champions are going down without a fight he is going to be very much mistaken.

(TA) I kept looking to see if Sonny Somers was entered but concluded that one fantastic comeback 2000+ years ago is enough.

(TC) SIR DES CHAMPS - Could go close to placing under a bold ride, depending on how the fancied runners races pan out.

(WF) Balthazar King- Although second in the betting not a lot has been said about him really had nasty fall in the National and is a massive coup that he is back racing again. But he is an absolute master round these fences and I’m sure Phillip Hobbs would have him 100% right and although it would be some training performance for him to win but he has the right horse going round the right track to do it.


Widest margin winner

(BB) Douvan

(BS) Has to be my girl LIMINI. She could win by 100yards, hard held, smoking a cigar whilst reading War and Peace."

(NB) Triumph Hurdle - whoever wins it!

(OD) Douvan

(S) It could be Douvan, it could be Limini, but my guess is it will be VROUM VROUM MAG.

(TA) A dubious category. If he stands up, Douvan has to be the obvious choice- given his front running potential.

(TC) No idea!

(WF) Limni - the Irish Banker of the week she will surely be and could make the slight odds on look very big indeed in again a field that could be classed as not the strongest field.


2. Champion Day (Tuesday)


Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

(BB) Two selections in this - Min to win and Silver Concorde to place. Min looks very good to me. A real hurdler. Silver Concorde will probably be around 20’s on the day and I’ll take a bit of that with the place being the main aim. I’m reading and hearing he’s training out of his skin atm.

(BS) Min's been the talking horse since the summer and he's done it on track. He's from the right yard, he oozes class and he's beaten decent horses senseless. I know many already on at the 20s and 25s but if you're not you should get 3/1+ on the morning so it's not like he's a really daft price. Yorkhill arguably has the best form on offer, should like decent ground and going left handed is a big plus. He's the one to follow him home. We all know about Henderson's awful record in the race and the fact the English novices are 20/1 bar his pair tells you plenty about where this year's 2m novices are. At the bigger prices Silver Concorde at 20/1 is fair, he could run into a place. Tombstone is woefully short now, awful price.

(NB) Tombstone is the call for me in a very competitive looking Supreme Novices Hurdle. The Rationale being that he has looked really interesting over longer trips and the drop down to two miles on spring ground with a fast pace looks set to suit him and I think he will improve massively for a proper pace being set in the race. I think Altior and Min are both good horses, but I am nervous that they seem to be supporting Yorkhill over Min and Buveur D'Air is being nibbled at from the same yard as Altior. The field might not have a horse of Douvan's class this year.....

(OD) I was left gobsmacked by the turn of foot shown by Altior at Kempton over Christmas and the more I watch his races, the more I like him. Tough, consistent and with that gear change that marks out a good horse, he has got better with every run this season. I like the story on Min, he was a cheap purchase but could turn out to be very good. Maybe a reverse forecast on these 2 for small stakes.

(S) In the last few years the Festival curtain raiser has become a favourite’s race but this could be just a blip as we have had some exceptional novices. It used to be a race for Irish trainers to win at decent prices and the Guinness tent would be packed by everyone who had had it off. MIN and ALTIOR both lack a recent run and being picky I would suggest that the former hasn’t yet been in a race and taken on anything of any note. With this in mind I am going down the historical route and putting up Henry De Bromhead’s SUPASUNDAE. I would have preferred him to have had a recent run and he is a bit of a “boil over” type but his form is pretty solid and I think he represents good value.

(TA) Altior has been very impressive but Min potentially looks something else. On his second win, he ran far too freely for my liking but still looked as though he had another gear left. Given he settles, I shouldn’t oppose him. Min’s stablemate, Yorkhill, may also contest this race instead of The Neptune. If so, he could be a serious opponent for Min.

(TC) Mullins and Ricci have dominated this event for the past 3 years via Champagne Fever, Vautour, and Douvan and they have another strong hand in MIN. He has a tonne of pace and is different in style to the other 3 that won but despite doubts around who rides him, as long as all is well with him he does have a good chance. However, another exciting horse with pace is BUVEIR D’AIR and I think he could go on to become a Champion Hurdle contender next season. He really has looked improved over hurdles, slamming WAIT FOR ME on reappearance before hacking up at long odds on since. Missed intended prep run due to desperate ground but at least they haven’t bottomed him. I think he has bundles of potential - has been really strong at the line (originally thought of as a Neptune horse) and that’s a characteristic I like. Looks a good race this year.

(WF) I am a huge fan of what I have seen of Min and the bigger the price he is the better it is. The most likely winner sired by the same horse as Douvan, Willie gave him a year off after getting him to the yard, they could have chucked him somewhere last year but decided to keep him and wait till this year. I can see him going off 2/1 3/1 on the day. The Prelims will be massively important to the SP he goes off as may say he does have a behaviour problem, but don’t the most talented the ones with the most quirks I haven’t as you would say “Lumped on” him I think he is pretty solid. He does travel bit keenly which he will need to relax better as pulling round Cheltenham he won’t be getting up the hill if he does. But again (apologies for keeping saying it) the fast pace they go will help him settle, he jumps nicely and although he hasn’t beaten any world beaters himself the form has worked out very well with quite a few of the field going on to win since, he too will be improve massively for the better ground. The forgotten horse in the race is Tombstone - has never encountered good ground and will appreciate the way the race is run. And Altior is my lay of the meeting and out of his two runners I think Buveur Dair is the biggest threat to Min.


The Arkle

(BB) Douvan - bombproof.

(BS) The bookies should be getting sick of the Ruby, Ruby, Ruby chants after this one. The race for second looks competitive. Vaniteux was one who you would have questioned his resolution a bit but at Kempton I thought it was a pretty good tussle he put up against a very good horse. Elliott's talking up his summer horse The Game Changer for this, but he's definitely one who’s as soft as a new-born’s turd. Fox Norton is a nice horse, but wants a flat track. The one I think is the class bet in the 'without' market is Sizing John with some nice Festival form train in his locker, in the right hands, and assuming Douvan didn't break him on St Stephens Day he should grab second. He'll be ridden for it, they won't be stupid enough to take on Douvan.

(NB) Douvan.

(OD) Douvan should win this and it should just be a race to watch and savour. I’ve had a little e/w dabble on The Game Changer at 16/1 NRNB, he comes here a fresh horse and second-highest rated in the race, having won his last 3 chases (all Grade 3). If it is soft he won’t run.

(S) There is a distinct lack of quality this year with DOUVAN looking head and shoulders above everything else. The race is usually won by a classy hurdler with plenty of speed. You have to forgive him getting turned over in the mud last time but LAMI SERGE now represents excellent value each way with conditions likely to be far more suitable this time.

(TA) Douvan looks a banker. L’Ami Serge was disappointing at Warwick and, although Vaniteux has done nothing wrong, you’d have to be “Henderson Crazy Sir Barney” to back him to beat the favourite.

(TC) This is Douvan’s for the taking according to all form and sources but I do think it might be a little bit tougher than people think. Sizing John will relish the better ground and jumps accurately, so any mistakes - and Douvan has made one or two small ones - could be problematic. I think an awful lot of Vaniteux and connections have been eyeing this up ever since they had him. He looked exciting on Kempton on debut, but less fluent both starts since. However, his 3 starts with good competition see him in good stead and I prefer him and Sizing John e/w as opposed to Douvan’s price.

(WF) Douvan supposedly the best horse Mullins has trained. Like a riding school horse in temperament on the ground but has the talent like no other. Could have had him in the champion hurdle and he would be clear favourite, he is an abstemious machine and his jumping looks solid. One I do like w/o Douvan - Sizing John been seeing the backside of Douvan a few times the last couple of seasons including a 3rd in the supreme last year. The twice Douvan hasn’t been in the field he has won but as the field is cutting up because of trainers being scared, he looks some cracking value @ 2/1 w/o the favourite.


Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase

(NB) Spring Heeled if he goes in the three miler

(OD) Probably wise to have 2 against the field so, providing they run I have picked (1) Morning Assembly, who has never finished outside the first 3 when completing and (2) Golden Chieftain who is just 3lbs higher than when he won this 3 years ago and has been in excellent form this winter.

(S) Jonjo O’Neill rarely leaves the Festival empty handed and will be keen to avoid last season’s blank. His forte is the staying handicaps and in the Ultima he has cracking chance of getting on the score sheet early with HOLYWELL. It’s worth remember that he was less than ten lengths behind Coneygree in last year’s Gold Cup and has since slipped ten pounds down the weights. Already a Festival winner at this trip he must have a stunning chance. This also looks tailor-made for THE YOUNG MASTER who has taken a similar preparatory route as last year’s winner The Druids Nephew for the same connections. He is worth a saver.

(WF) Two I like in the race - but before a couple of interesting Trends

• 12 of the last 15 winners carried less than 11st to victory.

• There has not been a winner rated higher than 150 for thirty years plus.

• 11 of the last 15 winners were amongst the top four in the betting.

• Novices have won four of the last nine runnings

Doctor Harper & Morning Assembly the two I like- DH been crying out for this trip, very lightly raced and showed capable of winning a race like this and carrying a feather weight on his and David has said this is his best chance that combined with him being able to get a horse ready for a big handicap his stable having a few winners just at the right time. MA has some extremely strong novice form beating the likes of Don Cossack, Foxrock, coming second to Carlingford Lough and a very decent 3rd in the RSA to O'Faolains Boy. Has run well since his comeback this year lto second to Smashing on Heavy. Another horse who will look to improve on the better ground and carrying a very good weigh any run up to his 2014 form which he shows he still retains he will have too much for this field.


The Champion Hurdle

(BB) Nichols Canyon - best horse in this race imho who will capitalise off the front if they let him have his way. The only horse to beat Faugheen and he’s 5/1. I went through the form on the Champion Hurdle thread and it was enlightening how far ahead he is on achievements thus far.

(BS) They’re renaming it The Champion isn't here Hurdle I believe. Eugghhh, it's a dirty old renewal this. Incredibly only FOUR of the entries have won their last race coming into it, let that sink in... When I look at the field I do feel a bit sick. Annie Power, the default favourite, hasn't raced a horse in 2 years, has no form at 2miles and is a total afterthought for it. I couldn't back her at less than 5/2 but such is the opposition she'll face she's still the likeliest winner. Does Nichols Canyon like the place? Not sure he does. Identity Thief is supposedly going chasing next year, not sure you're winning a Champion, even this bad a one, if that's your aim. Peace & Co looked the biggest threat before the season kicked off but he's another regressive looking animal. Like Nicky's other contenders expect this one to be engaging white flag mode when the heat turns up. At current prices Sempre Medici should improve past those he lost to on seasonal debut and he's a solid each bet. The rest are Grade 2/3 or handicap class. Did I say it was a pish Champion yet?!

(NB) A rank looking Champion Hurdle with Annie Power being the obvious one in the field, but I can't have her over the shorter trip and against the boys. Nichols Canyon might be the real deal, but his last run suggests that he isn't whilst The New One has looked a shadow of his old self at times this season. I therefore put up Old Guard as one at a big price, I like the way he goes up the hill and he may be better for the break since his last run. Hit and hope selection.

(OD) Only the top 5 in the betting enter calculations here and I am going for My Tent Or Yours under Barry Geraghty to be the ultimate Lazarus of this festival. The Champion Hurdle form of 2014 is way above anything the rest of the field have achieved and I am confident Mr Henderson’s magic hands have got MTOY cherry ripe for this. Annie Power is a terrible, terrible price given her form and preparation.

(S) Not a classic renewal but you have to go to post to be the Champion. As much as I would love to see THE NEW ONE prevail the horse I think has the most boxes ticked is IDENTITY THIEF and by default he is the selection.

(TA) As usual, last year’s top novices have failed to progress, but it‘s possible that either Peace And Co or Top Notch will run a big race. You can’t fancy them on current form, though. The New One looks a back number, but it will be interesting to see how My Tent Or Yours performs. He certainly has chances, given his past form. My feeling is that the race will go ‘over the water.’ Identity Thief has progressed well and ran a good race against Nicholls Canyon at Leopardstown. The latter has done little wrong really- if you forget his poor showing against Faugheen last time. This multiple Group One winner should appreciate his break and the better ground at Cheltenham. He’ll certainly benefit from a strong pace and his front running tactics will test the field. However, my choice has to be Annie Power. I believe she has the class and speed to win this race. After Dawn Run and Flakey Dove, it would be wonderful if she could be only the third mare to triumph in my lifetime.

(TC) Well, what a wide open race without Faugheen. Always loved The New One but I think both he and MTOY have had their chances when they were in better form. The Triumph form has bombed and given the close ties with Identity Thief, I’d rule him out too. I think CAMPING GROUND could end up surprising many and he is my e/w selection in an open, and I mean very open, renewal. Annie Power will go close but not an ideal prep so just can’t have the price.

(WF) Well where do I start, the race has completely fallen apart. Annie Power is the most likely winner, she had the option of the world hurdle but she doesn’t stay- she gets a massive 7lbs allowance which is huge There are arguments she lacks the speed of a proper 2m horse and she is too keen but over this distance she can afford to pull a little bit more as it is only 2m. But the field lacks proper 2m champion hurdle horses. My Tent Or Yours not seen for a long long time – would love to see him win and wouldn’t be the first time Henderson has got a horse ready without run (Binocular) but this would be asking something special and would surely be the training performance of the decade, he came second in a champion hurdle that is better than this but the absence is a worry he’s had his racecourse gallops but it’s not a race, although it is interesting that he was worried about the bounce factor and he is being sent straight to the race . One worrying little note for Backers Nicky has said he wished it was 3 weeks later but I can’t wait to see him back and if any horse is most likely to trouble Annie Power it will be him and with Sign Of A Victory entered I can see him being sent off in front to make sure that the pace is quick one for MTOY to run on to Nichols Canyon is a world hurdle horse and won’t win, The New one NTD is raving about how good a form he is in and the best he has had but you can’t help feeling that there has been excuses every time he has run in this race 1 being he was hampered although imo it was early enough to get back in to it which he did but he got left behind due to lack of pace, and last year it was his back. What excuse will there be this year. Identity Thief just can’t be having the horse at all, nothing I like about him at all. Peace and Co could surprise a few people with his latest runs being completely **** he should get his ground, get his pace and should be able to settle slightly better, will be a big choice for Daryl to see who he rides.


OLBG Mares Hurdle

(BB) Vroum Vroum Mag – bombproof

(NB) Vroum Vroum Mag I can't believe she is odds on, and for that reason I am wary. However if she lines up, I think she will win. Nothing in this race scares me off her.

(OD) Vroum Vroum Mag ought to win this head in chest. The other mares have largely been beating each other and look at least a stone below VVM.

(S) Or the Willie Mullins Mares Hurdle as it should be known. POLLY PEACHUM has her last run before going off to the breeding sheds and she will certainly run a good race but VROUM WROUM MAG is by far the best mare left in the race and to my mind is best day one favourite.


The Toby Balding National Hunt Chase

(NB) Native River needs sharpening up for the four miler (I know, in a four miler) but he has lots of talent and I think he will show his best here. I can't have most of the field over the trip and I think he will outstay horses who could be seen as slightly classier.

(OD) Neil Mulholland has done really well to get Nina Carberry on board Southfield Royale and he looks to be one of the classier sorts in the race. Whatever Patrick Mullins rides for his dad will no doubt go well (I’m just very glad it won’t be Black Hercules).

(S) I am all over NATIVE RIVER in this and delighted to hear that his shrewd handler is going to slap on some first time headgear. That could be just what he needs and a top amateur will be booked. Massive massive chance!

(TC) I’ve got Pont Alexandre covered at some extremely fancy prices for the 4 miler but not sure if he goes. I’ll cheer him on if he does. Might also play SAMBREMONT on the day - will stay all bleedin’ week!


The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase

(BS) Hadn't even looked at this market till Oddy flagged up a horse I've followed for a while KILLER CROW. Backed him at 20s he's shorter now so hopeful of a place anyway. Watching a few of his runs you could say he's one 'being trained for the day'!

(NB) Ballyalton in the novices’ handicap chase.

(OD) I get the feeling Gordon Elliot has been nursing Killer Crow along with this race in mind. A mark of 136 looks very workable, I would just like to see Bryan Cooper ride him nearer the front than last time, where he looked ultra-confident the whole race but failed to reel in Empire Of Dirt after the last fence.

(S) The two I have earmarked for this need a few to defect in order to get in. BALLYKAN is one I like but the Kim Muir could actually be the target so my tentative choice is THOMAS CRAPPER. His preparation smacks of a horse being laid out for a race. A run over hurdles and an outing in a Grade 1 on less than ideal going. He now comes here only a pound higher than last year when finding only Irish Cavalier too good.


3. Ladies Day


Neptune Novices' Hurdle

(BB) Yanworth and Long Dog. Yanworth looks sensational so far and I hope he wins. I have a real Long Dog soft spot and he’ll be right on the ground. The trip will suit and he will battle. I think this is a real bit of value at 12/1.

(BS) Until trials day I thought Yanworth was a Supreme horse. He kind of proved that wrong hacking over the field and scooting clear up the run in. Up until Friday night the Mullins battalion doesn't look that formidable. Bellshill has looked worse the more I've seen of him, A Toi Phil looks a bit of an eejit, but he's a somewhat talented one, winning nicely against animals. Seemingly however, cometh the time, cometh the man, step forward YORKHILL. To me this fellow has the best novice hurdle form around and should he run here, we look set for a mighty battle. The concern with him is he lacks experience and has shown greenness but the raw talent he has is frightening. They both look exceptional novices and it's a race to enjoy. As a long term backer of YORKHILL I'll be giving him a big old roar if he can lay down a challenge to the King horse up the run in. Other than the strong possibility of Yorkhill running now, another thing might worry fav backers is the King yard isn't firing like it was. This one goes to Mullins.

(NB) Yanworth – next Champion Hurdle winner

(OD) I’m just not totally convinced about Yanworth, the ground was very testing when he won on trials day and his price is very short. If Yorkhill turns up it could be a really good race, I also like Long Dog and I think he’ll take his chance here. At the current prices, I’ll go for Long Dog at around the 10/1 mark.

(S) Yanworth’s race to lose if the trial race form on heavy ground stands up but that would be too simplistic and I will take a chance on the lightly raced VIGIL who has any amount of improvement still to come.

(SBC) Wednesday should be a good day for the county as YANWORTH deffo looks a good thing (albeit at cramped odds) in the card commencer that day.

(TA) Willie Mullins has five entries in the top eight in the betting. No doubt these entries will be targeted between this race, the Supreme Novices, and the Albert Bartlett, but which horses will line up where is anyone’s guess. My feeling is that at least Yorkhill will contest this Neptune and, although he has won all his completed races, he would be taking on something if opposing the favourite, Yanworth. Yanworth is one of those horses you’d love to own. He travels so easily and doubtless his jockey can put him anywhere he wants in his races. He’s gone from strength to strength and any mediocre jumps just don’t seem to affect him. You’d have to assume Mullins’ chosen entry will be the danger, but he’ll need to be special to defeat the favourite.

(TC) Yanworth on the snaff.

(WF) Am really hoping that Yorkhill will turn up for this race at 9/2 NRNB is an absolute cracking bet, but also this race could have some big implications on the Albert Bartlett market if Yanworth wins, Shantou Village I can see shortening up. Yanworth seen as one of the main British bankers of the week. Has been unbeaten since the swap to Hurdles, and lto couldnt have been more impressive, never really asked any questions led going over the last and easily pulled clear up the Cheltenham hill. He does look very solid but he will have to improve again to beat this field which looks very likely but he does look a very quirky type and looked to kink out at cheltenham, he flicks his hurdles and could let him down especially if Yorkhill turns up his Tolworth form looks rock solid and if he does come to the race, he will be the best horse that Yanworth would have faced. One at a bigger price which has been completely forgotten is Long Dog – not scared of a battle proved that when beating Bachasson, he is unbeaten and holds strong form himself, seems to have been kept fresh for this and can see him making the frame very easily and is a decent price at 10/1.


RSA Chase

(BB) Vyta Du Roc - slogger and I think it’ll be in with a chance up the hill. I don’t want to back the fav at the price so I’m looking for a little value and this is the type of horse who usually does well in this race.

(BS) Another one my regular readers of Beefy’s jumpers to follow will be swimming in gravy with is No More Heroes who was widely available at 14s or 12s at the time I put him up. Big fan of Jonjos horse but I think there's been problems behind the scenes, he's only ran twice. The forms thread bare too, beaten one horse whose won since I think, so very much priced up on hurdlers form. No More Heroes has had a flawless season, jumps like a buck, ran well last year (unlucky loser), should like a bit of nicer ground I just can't see him beat.

(NB) Seeyouatmidnight is a selection in the hope he can make it a real test and see which horse finds more than he does. He wasn't impressive last time and needs a good clear round, but I'd love a Northern horse to mix it at the festival. He is a battler and I think he will outrun his price.

(OD) I’ve got Black Hercules at 25/1 in an e/w L15 so will be hoping he takes his chance here. Probably has a bit to find with the front 2 in the market but I am happy to settle back and watch this intriguing race pan out.

(S) The forgotten horse in the race for me is BLAKLION. He has improved with every run over the fences and has run to form that I feel equals the two ahead of him in the market. He is a sound jumper and acts on the track so ticks enough boxes for me.

(TA) Some great horses have won this race over the years, but there’s no doubt its demands can sour a young horse for the future. Although the market suggests the race rests between No More Heroes and More Of That, other entries certainly need to be considered. No More Heroes seems a worthy favourite. A good staying hurdler, he’s come into his own over fences and looks better each time he runs. More Of That has competed over two and a half miles when winning his two chases. He’s shown himself to be a clever jumper and can only improve for the step up in distance. Blaklion was beaten by Seeyouatmidnight over the shorter trip but has shown good stamina when winning over three miles. He doesn’t look quite good enough but will run well. Vyta Du Roc is lightly raced and can only do better but, like Blaklion, his form doesn’t look good enough. The same comment applies to Seeyouatmidnight, but Willie Mullins’ Black Hercules is certainly worth a mention - if he runs in the race. An assured stayer, he would certainly be unbeaten over fences but for falling last time out at Navan. He certainly has place prospects - likewise his stablemate, Roi Des Francs. Summary. It’s hard to look beyond No More Heroes and More Of That. As the better hurdler, most will fancy the latter, but jumping will probably decide the outcome. If they both make mistakes, its likely neither will win in what is usually a race of attrition.

(TC) More Of That - I want a price on the Gold Cup next year. E/W Seeyouatmidnight and Monksland could hit the frame on better ground - he’s had a much better season. Shouldn’t beat the fav though.

(WF) Looks a two horse race although the biggest disappointment is that Roi Du Francs has been said turning up here rather than the 4miler in which I fancied him massively for, will have to have a lot of luck and over perform to win this. Starting off with No More Heroes, the rain in the Albert Bartlett really went against him last year and on the likelihood we will get good ground, that will make him even stronger favourite both jockey and trainer think the world of this horse, all Elliot wants to do is talk about this horse, he was a very good hurdler and an even better chaser. More Of That a horse I do like a lot however slightly worrying he hasn’t turned up again the last one or two times he was meant to add in the fact he has had his problems in the past but if the ground turns out to be on the soft side he will be very hard to beat, you know he will stay, he jumped very well and has a terrier like attitude will not back down very easily out the two he does have the most potential to be a future gold cup winner but for the race I do prefer NMH this year. Blaklion I can’t have at all and fear if they go to fast a pace for him, I can see him being pulled up. He like Seeyouatmidnight needs the ground as soft as anything and even if it does turn out like that I can’t see him them beating the top two.


Coral Cup

(BS) Arbre de Vie was one I backed last week at 20/1 when Mullins nominated him for it. Ran an eye catching race in the AB for 4th last year, step back will help and crucially was one of the few Irish horses not absolutely murdered in the weights by Phil Smith!

(NB) I like Politologue who looks to have bundles of ability and the yard are peaking at the right time.

(OD) Very difficult to even be confident of a runner here but Paul Nicholls seems to be aiming Baoulet Delaroque at the race and the novice has an unexposed profile. The other one I like at a price is Ubak, back over hurdles and 2nd to Lil Rockerfeller in the National Spirit Hurdle, his novice hurdle form would give him a real chance here off 144. Given the bad luck they’ve had, I don’t think anyone would begrudge the Moores a winner. Both of these will get in at the weights and both already have jockey bookings.

(S) I am all over BENTELIMAR for this. He ran a nice race in one of the recognised trial races at Leopardstown in January and then turned in a sound performance behind Sempre Medici at Gowran in the mud. He wouldn’t mind a bit of cut and comes here on a handy enough mark and in good order. Brother Tedd and Long House Hall would both be high on my shortlist.


Champion Chase

(BB) Dodging Bullets - I can’t back the fav at the current price. Evens on the day and I’ll wade in but at what I can see at the moment I’m happier to take an each way price on the current champion. He’s 12/1 and has a terrific Cheltenham record.

(BS) Wish I could tip up something other than a fav here, but I just can't turn my back on the winner in waiting UN DE SCEAUX. Kicked Sire de Grugy into touch with ease at Ascot, he'll do the same to Sprinter too. No room for romance in this game! Dodging Bullets won a Champion Chase in name only last year, that won't be near good enough this time. Bigger priced Gods Own can run well here, if he doesn't go Ryanair. Can see both placed horses being outsiders as UDS tears up those who challenge him early.

(NB) Special Tiara, I am not over keen on the front of the market. UDS is the right favourite whilst SS is a horse who could win the race on old form, however both have issues and both are horses I want to take on. Special Tiara is a tough horse, and will try and break the others here, and if he jumps well, I can see him running into a place at the very least.

(OD) I had a little nibble at Sprinter Sacre for this when he was 14/1 so I’ll be hoping he gives me a good run for my money. In all reality though Un De Sceaux should be winning granted a clear round.

(S) A really classic renewal with champions old and new in the line-up. SIRE DE GRUGY for me but probably the heart is ruling the head. I just love him. A true stamp of a chaser and first time headgear is a master stroke to just freshen him up enough.

(TA) Un De Sceaux goes to post as a worthy favourite. Two career falls have blemished what would otherwise be an undefeated sequence of sixteen wins under National Hunt Rules. He was quite impressive at Ascot, having got into a good rhythm and jumping well. However, when you examine the ratings, there isn’t too much between Un De Sceaux, Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy, Dodging Bullets, and Special Tiara. I think most would accept that Sprinter Sacre is below his brilliant best of three years ago- when he reached a rating of 188. Nonetheless two wins this season will certainly have boosted his confidence. A possible argument against the favourite is that he didn’t seem to relish the drying ground when defeating God’s Own in last year’s Arkle Chase- as much as winning on testing ground in Ireland previously. You could also argue that the Arkle field wasn’t the best quality. On this season’s form, there’s very little between Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy, and Special Tiara. Take your pick. Which brings us on to Dodging Bullets. A good jumper, he progressed steadily throughout last season, culminating in a good performance when winning the Champion Chase. When he reappeared at Newbury, his main rival, Top Gamble, was backed to beat him - despite having inferior form. He ran and jumped as though he badly needed the race, and I think it’s fair to ignore that form. To summarise, Un De Sceaux certainly has the potential to justify favouritism, given a clear round. However, I feel that Dodging Bullets is overpriced at 12/1 and I feel he can beat all the others and run a very big race.

(TC) Un De Sceauxshould win. I have the Supreme Novice 2011 form treble though - Sprinter Sacre, Al Ferof, and Cue Card all to win. I’ll be a bit richer if it rolls in!

(WF) Big shame that Simomsig is not running in this as, he was one horse I could really see actually pressurising UDS. Surely the only was UDS gets beat is if he falls, but we had this doubt about him last year. Had a similar build up to the Arkle and put his critics to bed. People are worrying that Special Tiara will be putting pressure on him upfront trying to eek some errors on him for him to fall but I can’t see him going fast enough to be able to live with UDS up front. Like Min the prelims for him is a massive thing for him, but he’s been here once before and proved his can cope with the surroundings, so surely that should be no worry. He will leave the others in a trail and any horse that does try to go with him will ruin their own race. SDG not the same horse and even if he was, he wouldn’t be able to overturn the form. Sprinter Sacre the roof would fly off if he won and I like others would love to see him win and I would not begrudge him at all, but he’s not the horse he was and he would have to be to beat UDS, he came back to nearer his old form at Kempton but he still wasn’t as slick and aeroplane like he was and the younger legs of UDS will be too much for him. Dodging Bullets just has no chance whatsoever he even needs to improve on last year’s form and after his run lto he shows no promise whatsoever to do it. UDS solid for me.


Cross Country

(BB) Josie’s Orders - I’m backing Nina.

(NB) Cross Country its Guinness Village time. Jolly backing at the festival!!

(OD) I was going to be boring and write something along the lines of “Enda Bolger, Nina Carberry, Josie’s Orders EOS” and will probably kick myself for not doing so BUT the one I’m interested in at a bigger price is Colin Tizzard’s Third Intention. This classy individual has run some absolute crackers over the years and this season has finished second in the Haldon Gold Cup and also a neck second to Astracad off 158 in a Chepstow handicap. If he takes to the course he has a major chance.

(S) Enda is the master of cross country but it isn’t always the fancied Bolger runner that wins and I reckon a few of the McManus euros will be on the classy CANTLOW. Seemed to take to cross country well at Punchestown I like him and Foxrock.


Fred Winter

(BB) Diego Du Charmil 8/1, Frodon 16/1 and Romain De Senam 25/1

(NB) I like Coo Star Sivola for a shrewd yard and I think his mark is very fair.

(OD) Jer’s Girl looks to hold a very solid chance here based on her excellent second to Apple’s Jade at Leopardstown. One I think could go well at a bigger price is Jim Goldie’s Sir Chauvelin who will appreciate the return to a sounder surface.

(S) I backed FRODON ante post but he looks likely to be Triumph bound. His stablemate Diego Du Charmil makes the short list along with Jer’s Girl and Harley Rebel but the race is often won by an improver and the horse that fits the bill for me is ARDAMIR. He gets in here on a handy mark and I know O’Regan really fancies his chances.

(SBC) I'll repeat though what I've said many, many times since the autumn. DOUBLY CLEVER has been trained specifically for the 'Fred Winter' and should go close granted normal luck. Don't, I say don't, be put off by the fact that he hasn't run since August as that has always been the plan in order to protect his perch of 135. He may be from a very small barn who have never had one this good but they sure know what to do with a horse.

(WF) Paul Nicholls has not really made this of any secret that he has not run Diego Du Charmil to keep his handicap mark – took the race last year and this looks another plot by the big man.


Champion Bumper

(BB) New To This Town

(OD) I very much like Ballyandy here, he has course form and I think it was a decent renewal of the “High Sheriff Of Gloucestershire” Bumper he won back in November. He should have similar underfoot conditions in this and can gain revenge on Coeur Blimey back at level weights. I really don’t rate the Irish challenge this year, words which will no doubt come back to haunt me.

(S) It looks a sub-standard affair this year and whilst I like the mare a lot I am going to chance that John Ferguson has one good enough to break his Festival duck in HIGH BRIDGE. I couldn’t believe my eyes when Aurillac beat him here but he is improving with every outing and he gets the nod.

(WF) An absolute horrible race and will not be getting involved very heavily at all but if was to back to one it will be Battleford - I know when Patrick won on this on his only run for Willie he was very impressed and instantly thought this was a champion bumper horse


4. St. Patrick’s Day


JLT Novices Chase

(BB) Shaneshill 12/1. Great Cheltenham form and that is good enough for me in a wide open event. I’d worry about More of That if he turns up. I wouldn’t be concerned about Blacklion unless it’s soft.

(BS) Where to start... Bristol de Mai I just can't get right. I think he's a great front runner, jumper but I'm sure he won't like the ground. Outlander wasn't beaten far by the Champion Hurdle 2nd fav here last year so he has the class and he's one improved with a fence. But I'm not mad on his last win, so he's a bit to prove. L'ami Serge as we know is a mudlark, forget him. Black Herucles must be slipping something into old boy Willies nightcap before bed time getting him to run here. Zabana ran a cracker here last year, he will outrun his odds. Touch of quality about him, fair price. The one I like and have already backed each-way is a horse who cannot finish out of the top 3 if they run it a dozen times. The Hobbs horse, Garde la Victoire. Avoiding Douvan, he's doing the right thing. Cracking e/w bet.

(NB) L'ami Serge, this is a big leap into the unknown as he was rank last time out, but he is a special horse in the making and I have to hope that he is just a bit temperamental. If he puts it all together then I think he can win this race and go on to be a nice chaser. Its a tough race with many options, because of horses swerving Douvan in the Arkle.

(OD) Fate has dictated that I have to put up 2 in this race. Sizing John is in my ten to follow and I am not going to desert him. Chasing home Douvan is no disgrace and this longer trip on better ground will hopefully bring out the best in him. Bristol De Mai has been one of the highlights of the winter with his bold front-running style and flamboyant jumping. It will be very tight between him and Garde La Victoire but I think Bristol De Mai might just be able to reverse form over this longer trip.

(S) Nice looking race this year and the one I like is GARDE LE VICTOIRE. He beat Bristol De Mai seven lengths in October, why isn’t he favourite?

(TA) Ante-post favourite, Bristol De Mai, comfortably beat the decent As De Mee last time- winning his fourth race of the season. The form looks good but not exceptional. Garde La Victoire is unbeaten in three races over fences, and easily beat Bristol De Mai on his debut last October. Black Hercules stepped up to three miles for his last two races and looked like continuing his winning ways when tipping up at Navan. Should he opt for this race, then he certainly looks a player. Sizing John is an interesting contender. Having been slaughtered by Douvan over both hurdles and fences, he’ll find this task much easier; and the step up in trip should suit. His trainer’s horses have been in great form all season. Second favourite, Outlander, is unbeaten over fences, and accounted for the useful Monksland last time.
Summary. Garde La Victoire may have the edge over Outlander, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Sizing John gave them plenty to think about.

(TC) Happy to take on Bristol De Mai - false fav IMO and ground concerns for him. Think Mullins is bordering on being classified nutty for Black Hercules running in this. Don’t have a strong opinion on a winner but I do think Garde La Victoire will have a good try and looks a fair enough price. He will battle.

(WF) Another race that has cut up since the loss of Killultagh Vic and it seems to be the race for the horses that have been scared of Douvan the likes of L'Ami Serge and Garde La Victoire. Bristol De Mai is the rightly favourite but am worried about him if the ground turns out good as he could be vulnerable to quick type, he needs a real stamina test to be at his best. Black Hercules hasn’t the speed for the race and is crazy that he is going here rather than the RSA or the 4 miler. Sorry for picking another Mullins horse but has Shaneshill become a bit of a forgotten horse, was favourite for the race prior to his appalling Doncaster run but that was the weekend Willie sent out a few horses and not many really performed, so you can excuse the race. Don’t forget came a good second to Douvan in the supreme last year and second to Silver Concorde 2 years ago so performs well at the track just doesn’t seem to win, which is a bit of a worry but at his current odds is good a ew price and as I don’t have a strong view in the race I am siding with him but I can see Garde Le Victoire if the ground comes up good him going very close a big solid, slick jumper who has actually beaten Bristol De Mai over hurdles last year and has yet to be really shown how good he actually is.


Pertemps Final

(BB) Leave at Dawn - 10/1 - it’s a confident shout.

(NB) Arpege D'alene is a likely improver in the Pertemps Final if he stays well enough. I was impressed at Chepstow with him and he will be fitter for that.

(OD) Top weight Taglietelle qualified with 3rd place in the Musselburgh qualifier won by Cup Final and has a 7lbs pull with that rival for just 4 ½ lengths. He was tanking through that race before making a right horlicks of the 3rd last and then scorching home late to grab 3rd. Lovely prep for the big one. Pip Hobbs looks to have plotted last year’s winner of The Great Yorkshire Chase, If In Doubt, for this and I’ll have a saver on him.

(S) The plot race as Barney would call it. I really UNKNOWWHATIMEANHARRY and although he is well exposed I honestly don’t think they have got to the bottom of him yet. Not a certain starter but if he lines up I would want to have something on him. Longsdon rates OUR KAEMPFER as being well well in and I like the horse a lot. He still could be anything, I would also like a second saver on the super gutsy SADDLERS ENCORE. He ran a blinder at Sandown in February and has very few miles on the clock.

(WF) Two I like in this race. First one Oscar Sam has had a terrific season winning 3 out 4 starts this season and being the runner up lto - has had a winter break since January with this race likely in their minds, the handicapper has been very generous on him and an interesting thing he has never raced with the word good in it and imo he looks like he will improve for the better ground over this distance as he did get headed toward the finish when he did finish second but he had a few races in quick succession, he has won many a time in soft ground so if it does turn out soft I will not worry about that whatsoever. Second one UnowhatImeanharry - has had a terrific time since joining Harry Fry being unbeaten, was in up there in the market early days for the Albert Bartlett but this look an easier option, won his qualifier for the race in pretty good style, proves he can handle the course and distance the only worry is the weight he has on his back but he does have a lot of class and is in the form of his life so will be on these two come the day.


Ryanair Chase

(BS) Nice of Willie not to take the penalty kick here! I like Road to Riches, he's the only Grade One horse left in it. Does he run? Not sure, hopefully as I don't think Valseur Lido has anywhere near the same winning chance for Gigginstown. If he doesn't, boringly I'll again have to put up a Hobbs runner each-way in the shape of Village Vic. Ticks the boxes people like to tick and all that.

(NB) Al Ferof is the class horse in the Ryanair and his run last time was good enough to win this. I think he is the best bet of the blue ribband races and I think he will take all of the beating here. He looks a different horse this season.

(OD) I tend to agree with Noel Meade on Road To Riches, he belongs in the Gold Cup and I can’t see him having the speed to win this. Taquin De Seuil has been supplemented and brings winning festival form to the table, he must have a great chance. I have covered Felix Yonger at 16/1 e/w NRNB in this but it looks like he will be going to the Champion Chase.

(S) What a mess of a race this is every year will the will he or wont he’s! In the absence of Vautour my vote goes to the classy ROAD TO RICHES. If however Vibralto Valtat were to win I would be wearing a huge grin.

(TA) It’s uncertain which horses will actually line up for this race. Assuming Vautour goes for the Gold Cup, then Road To Riches has outstanding claims- based on his great run in last year’s Gold Cup. We can forgive his defeat by Carlingford Lough in desperate ground last time at Leopardstown. Al Ferof ran a good race against Cue Card and Vautour in the King George. He runs well when fresh and the shorter distance should suit. Valseur Lido, before falling, looked like beating Carlingford Lough last time- relishing the heavy ground. Overall though, his form is in and out. Village Vic has done nothing but improve all season, and any further progress would give him a sporting chance. Dynaste can be given a chance, also, but he seems to flatter to deceive at Cheltenham. Summary. Road To Riches looks outstanding on his best form.

(TC) Would love AL FEROF to win it and he has quite rightly been kept fresh for it this year. The Gigginstown runners will warrant maximum respect- especially Road To Riches (if he runs) on good ground with a front-running ride. However, and I’m frightened to say this out loud, I’d take a chance on JOSSES HILL. Maybe, just maybe the penny has dropped for him. This trip should help his jumping and this big, scopey animal has never been all speed, and could end up useful at the longer trip.

(WF) A race we have no idea who will turn up - Vautour looks very unlikely to turn up, although Ruby would love him too and if he did he would be an absolute certainty. Road To Riches, trainer wants him to go the Gold Cup, but the owner has other ideas, but even if he does I will be against him likewise with Valseur Lido looks likely to wind up here but Willie too wants him to go to the Gold Cup. That leaves Al Ferof if these 3 don’t turn up going off as a favourite and although he has been 3rd in the King George twice, but he has always been known to get on, on the first run of the season and although he has been kept fresh, it would be a very weak race should he go off favourite. I have quite a strong fancy in the race Village Vic – has improved with every run and is being completely overlooked, has won all four starts this season the last two the most impressive within a space of a couple of weeks – the Caspian Gold Cup at Cheltenham in December and the big handicap at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day beating the likes of Top Gamble, Annacotty and Art Maresque all of which have put up very good if not winning performances since then. He has been obviously given a long break, freshened up for this race, he has proven he acts best over the course and looks to have the best form offered in the race all season and again 10/1 looks a very solid E/W bet.


World Hurdle

(BB) Thistlecrack and Aux Ptit Soins in the without the favourite market. I’m very sweet on both of these horses in their respective markets.

(BS) How can you not have been impressed by the Tizzard horse I don't know. I hear Cue Card is all out keeping up with him when he hits top gear on the gallops. Just looks a proper horse trained by the affable Colin Tizzard. Thistlecrack is THE English banker for the week, if he gets turned over there be plenty heading home for the week! I think he wins half the track. One I backed pre-season was Martello Tower but he's been goat like thus far. Cole Harden will have his fans as last year's winner but that was a poor renewal. Nicholls talking up his pair a fair bit, probably means it's time to hit the lay button...

(NB) Thistlecrack will win, if Tom Scudamore keeps it together. Shame it’s a big if.

(OD) I told you all back in November that Thistlecrack will win. EOS. See “banker” section.

(S) I have been saying for weeks that COLE HARDEN simply has to be backed here. Nothing wrong with Thistlecrack’s credentials but the reigning champion has merely been warming up thus far. He looked absolutely scintillating in a racecourse gallop at Kempton recently. It will be hat eating time if he doesn’t make the frame.

(TA) Since just being edged out by the talented Killultagh Vic at last spring’s Punchestown Festival, Thistlecrack has gone from strength to strength- looking more impressive with each succeeding race. He jumps and travels well; and decisively puts his race to bed when asked.
Given that Annie Power and Vroum Vroum Mag will not line up, one of his main opponents on form would seem to be Alpha Des Obeaux who was making a race of it with him when falling at Aintree last April. Although beaten subsequently over shorter distances by both Arctic Fire and Prince Of Scars, Alpha Des Obeaux easily accounted for At Fisher’s Cross when reappearing over three miles in January. Lightly raced, he would need to show comparative improvement to have any chance against Thistlecrack, however. His trainer, Dessie Hughes, does have the knack of getting a winner or two at The Festival. Paul Nicholls has both Saphir Du Rheu and Aux Ptits Soins entered. The former has very good form over three miles, but couldn’t cope with Cole Harden in last year’s race, and was poor when he reappeared behind Thistlecrack at Ascot. Aux Ptits Soins is certainly very interesting. Last year’s Coral Cup winner has yet to reappear but, being by Big Bucks’ sire, Cadoudal, out of an Irish St. Leger winner’s offspring, he should certainly have stamina in abundance. Last year’s winner, Cole Harden, goes to post again - having been set aside for the race. Good ground will certainly aid his chances. Nicky Henderson has both Whisper and Different Gravey entered, but the latter would be the more interesting, should he take his chance and not wait for Aintree. Summary. On form, Thistlecrack has to be a confident choice- with Aux Ptits Soins the dark horse of the race.

(TC) Cole Harden will be tough to catch if its quick ground but I do hope Thistlecrack wins!

(WF) Thistlecrack seen as one of the bankers of the festival, however at Newbury he was reportedly a bit fresh at the start and missed the first few strides, something he can’t afford to do at Cheltenham. His form does look solid but will he be able to do it over the spring Cheltenham ground. He proved he could handle the track lto but one main question to ask is if he gets in to a battle with the likes of Cole Harden, ADO how effective will he be, but he does look the bet odds against horse at the festival. There are many star potential training performances and this race has one in Aux Petit Sons not seen since winning at the festival last year, Ditcheat seem quietly confident in him but still has to prove he can actually stay the 3m, interestingly STD has chosen to ride Saphir Du Rheu, I take it that due to the proven stamina and am a big fan of the horse but can’t have him out of the two Aux Petit Sons looks the better value of the two as he is the more unexposed. I know connections are very bullish about Alpha Des Obeaux but just can’t see where the improvement will come from to overturn the form with Thistlecrack. Cole Harden can’t have at all won a weak world hurdle last year and although is in better form at home than last year, I can see him going well for a lot of the race but being outclassed One of which I do like in an EW is Whisper, ground is vital for this horse the times we have seen him this season you can put a line through due to the ground, he comes to his own at this time of the year from February onwards he has form figures of 14121151 so he has only been out the top 3 twice out of 8 runs has won a coral cup and has beaten Cole Harden too, Seven Barrows themselves seem quietly confident about him and although Thistlecrack does seem a very very thing, I do fancy this guy to grab a place at the very least


Brown Advisory Plate

(BB) Johns Spirit 10/1 – plot

(NB) Johns Spirit is a really big fancy for me in the 2m4f chase, he is being plotted up surely?

(OD) Johns Spirit has dropped to a very attractive mark and he does go well here, despite 4 poor runs at the course this season (nudge-nudge, wink-wink). I also think Venetia Williams has been saving Niceonefrankie for this. Those 2 against the field.

(S) I think Jonjo has manoeuvred JOHNS SPIRIT down to a very handy mark. He goes really at the track and has an outstanding chance. I have a sneaky feeling that Pipe has been “putting us away” with KINGS PALACE as well and at 25/1 he warrants a saver.


Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

(BS) This will be a real, where were you moment, a JFK type moment in history when the mighty mare Limmmmiiiinnnnnnniiiiiiii wins pulling double and jumps to the head of the betting for everything from the Champion Hurdle, Derby, Wimbledon and the X Factor. Don't try and be smart lads and 'take her on'. Just sit back and marvel and say to yourself, **** my man Beefy really DID know.

(OD) Difficult to see past Limini but a nice e/w alternative is Mr Henderson’s Robin’s Reef at around 20/1, who got the best of his preview words from the 3 entered.

(S) LIMINI is nailed on. Smart Talk for the forecast.


Kim Muir

(BB) - The Giant Bolster is entered off 139. Unbelievable mark if they let him run.

(NB) Lost Legend to make it a Jonjo day in the Kim Muir. Stayed on eye-catchingly last time and is a really dour horse.

(OD) Looks like Doctor Harper goes for this rather than the 3 miler on Tuesday. Pretty skinny price at the moment but looks like a very well-handicapped horse.

(S) Several catch the eye in this including the front two in the market Cause Of Causes and Doctor Harper. Top-weight Mon Parrain is not without a shout and if sneaking in at the bottom of the handicap Guess Again would be very interesting. The selection, and one I regard as a little bit of value is for PERFECT CANDIDATE. Bizarrely his last five runs have all been here so he knows his way round and his stamina is not in question. I would prefer one of the top amateurs but at least she takes a few pounds off.


5. Gold Cup Day


Triumph Hurdle

(BB) Zubayr 5/1 to beat Sceau Royale 8/1

(BS) Haven't a clue. Kings horse Sceau Royal looks best of his. The English look the ones to concentrate on, in saying that I'm keen to see the O'Brien horse, think they feel he's the real deal. They'd know a good un down there.

(NB) Got to stick with Zubayr, who impressed me on his UK debut and I think he will come on a bundle for the run. He looks a really nice horse for the future and I do think the comparisons with Zarkandar are interesting. It’s a very trappy race this year and I hope something comes out and sparkles.

(OD) I have Gibralfaro e/w ante post in this and am hopeful he can put that poor run in the Adonis behind him and maybe grab a place. Of the Irish horses, I was really taken with Apples Jade at Christmas and I think she offers a bit of value against the boys. At a bigger price, John Ferguson’s Leoncavallo was bang there at the last before unseating last time out and the faster ground will be right up his street.

(S) Nicholls is mob handed and his favourite is Zubayr but that lacks the experience to win the race in my mind. I prefer another one of his in CONNETABLE. He showed a cracking attitude to beat Ravin Black and Peace And Co at Sandown and that represents mightily decent form. He will need to hurdle a little more fluently but I think he has the sort of attitude you need to win this race.

(TA) Ivanovich Gorbatov retains slight favouritism despite a poor performance on his second race over hurdles. After quite an impressive debut when beating the odds on Let’s Dance, he only managed fourth place (beaten 10 lengths) behind the latter’s stablemate, Footpad, at Leopardstown. The close proximity of Let’s Dance (short head in front of him) suggests both these horses are way short of the mark- despite excuses having been offered. Furthermore, Footpad has now won three of his four hurdle races and, on form, has little to fear from either Ivanovich Gorbatov or Let’s Dance. Alan King’s Sceau Royal makes more appeal. Having rattled up a hat trick since mid-November, one of his wins against Nicholls’ highly touted Adrien Du Pont has been boosted by the latter’s winning subsequently at Chepstow. Connetable is certainly worth a mention. Having run a good second on his British debut behind Alan King’s good novice, Gibralfaro, he then beat the much improved Rayvin Black, with Peace And Co behind in third. The key to this race may rest with Paul Nicholls’ other horse, Zubayr. Purchased for about 380,000 Euros from the Aga Khan, this well-bred Authorized gelding made his debut behind hot favourite, Gilbalfaro, at Kempton in the same race won by Zarkandar on his first start a few years ago. Next to last turning into the straight behind tearaway leader, Azzuri, he then started to pick off his rivals and, getting to grips with Azzuri at the last, proceeded to stay on in striking style to win going away. Summary. I was very taken with Zubayr and personally would not oppose him. He looks a great prospect.

(TC) I think this is very open- all sorts of form questions! Clearly connections still really rate Ivanovich Gorbatov. I really like a filly at a price - APPLES JADE has only had the one run and the improvement from first to second start for these hurdlers can be unreal. Had she been fancied on debut and male, she would not trade at 20s on the exchanges as I type! I like her potential.

(WF) The only day I am going to the festival this year and is the day I have no real views on except the Gold Cup. How Ivanovich Gorbatov is still a strongly backed favourite is beyond me, saying that he could be anything he will either do an “Our Conor” and completely blow the field away or he will just fail miserably. This is a 1000 piece jigsaw this race and something I won’t be getting to heavily involved in but one I do like is Footpad has beaten 3 or 4 of this field already and I remember reading that Willie has said no novice hurdler works better than him on the gallops, seems to go on any ground and like to go with horses in form in to race like this.


County Hurdle

(BB) Blue Hell and All Yours - a couple of little digs.

(OD) Willie Mullins’ Great Field really could be anything here – beat a 137 rated animal on the snaff on debut for the yard and, although the handicapper has given him a weight equivalent to 147 for that, this fella could easily be graded class. David Pipe’s Starchitect and Holly Bush Henry at fancier odds e/w are others on the list.

(S) My longest shortlist by far. I even had two of Fergusons, Devilment and Penglai Pavillion, on it! I like the highly progressive Holly Bush Henry but he is probably a little too high now. Then there are three in Modus, Wait For Me and Superb Story who are unlikely to get in. The vote though goes to HENRY HIGGINS who was so impressive at Leopardstown. He has gone up 10lbs for that victory but he absolutely smashed a very good field that day and just might still be a few pounds in.


Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

(BB) Maybe my least favourite race of the Festival. I’d like Barters Hill but he jumped so poorly last time you must be mad to take 5/2.

(BS) Barters Hill 7/7, tough, resolute but I'm sure he's one the bookies will want to take on and I think they'll get him turned over. He's an iffy enough jumper, and the form of Doncaster isn't much, the Mullins horse bombed and he was hard pressed to beat a 132 animal. There's some strength in depth to this race, and I've banged the Shantou Village drum all season. Thanks to Yanworth he's running here otherwise he'd be in the Neptune, I think the trip and ground will really suit. I think he'll nail the jolly after the last. Some hype for Gangster, meant to be a great workhorse. Too short now. Shantou for me, there'll be some fine chasers coming from this race anyway.

(NB) sometimes you bet with your heart and hope it comes right, and this is a race that exemplifies this for me. Barters Hill is the selection and I think this horse is absolutely brilliant, he grinds races out from the front and shows so much determination. He will have a Mullins battalion in opposition and I hope he can do to them what Brindisi Breeze did when he romped up the hill at Cheltenham. This would be the result of the week for me if he does it. He is a very fair price too, and I wonder if we might get a really nice price on the day.

(OD) Probably none of you expected to find a 100/1 shot in this preview, but that is exactly what I have backed in this – West Approach 100/1 e/w NRNB. This half-brother to Thistlecrack has always been held in very high regard by Colin Tizzard but has taken his time to show anything on the track. It was only really on his last run in a Pertemps Qualifier, when 2nd to Unowhatimeanharry that he really started to show some decent form on the track and Richard Johnson was very taken with him that day. If progressing from there he could run into a place here at massive odds.

(S) Judged by most as the weakest favourite of all the novice hurdle races but BARTERS HILL has done absolutely everything that has been asked of him so far. His bumper form was top drawer beating Buveur D’air and Bellshill and he won his first two hurdle races in decent company in facile fashion. He remained unbeaten at Doncaster last time but the victory was more workmanlike than flashy. He does it the hard way, he leads and when they come to him one by one he breaks them. He is just a galloping machine. He didn’t hurdle too fluently at Doncaster but I am sure he will have had plenty of schooling since.

(TA) Unowhaimeantoharry is progressive and stays well. Long Dog has done really well, but will he go for this race- and does he need soft ground? It’s difficult to find an opponent to trouble the strong galloping Barters Hill who, despite some indifferent jumping, just doesn’t want to yield. Barters Hill has to be the confident selection in what looks one of the less interesting races at the meeting.

(TC) SHANTOU VILLAGE (NAP)is very, very good. He wants better ground according to Mullholland and ran a screamer behind Yanworth on ground that was no ideal. He has always looked a stayer of the future and I think has a bit more class and gears than the loveable BARTERS HILL. I think the latter will get beat but go on to be a fantastic staying chaser down the line, and Paul Nicholls likened him to Denman, so Barters for the future, but Shantou for this race.

(WF) Barters Hill is clear favourite for this race and so he should be the form he has shown has been second to nothing and deservedly but as I said earlier the form of the Neptune could have a big impact on the race and also if the ground comes up fast Shantou Village I can see being a lot closer to the fav. When ruby got off him after Cheltenham he was most impressed. He completely destroyed the field beating one or two of this field before that over a shorter distance and the step up in trip looks only suit. Barters hill does look to be improving with every run and the field will have to improve to beat him, he does look good and although haven’t yet been involved in this race will wait for the day with Barters Hill my likely pick for this race.


Cheltenham Gold Cup

(BB) Vautour and Cue Card are the two I like. I put Djakadam up on the Gold Cup thread ages ago when he was a big double figure price - 12’s or 16’s - but I didn’t back him and so I’m loathe to tip him at a third of that price now. He could put in a sensational run.

(BS) Don Poli mows them all down late on. Can see him being 6/1, maybe 7 or 8/1 on the day, as he's not a 'sexy' horse. Huge value. Don Cossack will bottle it one way or another, as he does in the biggest moments. Vautours the best chaser going imo but not over this trip. Djakadam couldn't win last year's so missed his chance. Cue Cards really growing on me, he's really staying well now so he should fill a place. Shame Coneygree's not here but he'd only be running for a place behind the Polinator anyway.

(NB) The big one, and I am with Vautour who I have held in highest regard. I hope he takes a lead from Smad Place and then it’s a case of staying up the hill. I hope that the ground is spring ground, and we see a proper performance by the best around. He has a lot to beat here, and it could become one of the best Gold Cups of this millennium. I think he is the classiest in the field, and again betting with heart rather than head.

(OD) I have backed Don Poli to win this, I think he has all the qualities required – a sound jumper, deceptively good traveller (sometimes needs a little rousing along) and a very resolute stayer. The race will be run at a good clip and I reckon that will suit, and no horse will come up the hill better than Don Poli. Having backed Cue Card at Wetherby and Kempton I will be having a sentimental saver on him. What scenes there would be if he could win!!

(S) Don’t laugh but I am on SMAD PLACE. There is no question of him staying the trip, there is no question of him acting at the track and there is no question about his jumping. I think all the other main protagonists come here with a question mark, he doesn’t. He will surely be ridden positively and it will take a good one to get by him.

(TA) Djakadam ran a good second last year and, after easily winning the John Durkan Chase on his first run, surprisingly fell behind Smad Place- when travelling very easily. The King George form may be the best guide. Vautour and Cue Card are much the same horse on that form. Arguably too much use was made of Vautour- and he certainly loves Cheltenham in the spring. Cue Card has been in top form all season and must run well. However, I’m convinced Don Cossack would have beaten them both at Kempton, if he hadn’t fallen at the last. He’d slightly headed Cue Card and was staying on. Don Poli is the dark horse. His form doesn’t look quite good enough, but he’s only lost once over fences and is a stout stayer.
Smad Place will have his fans but I can’t see him having better than place chances. Summary. This race will divide opinion but my choice has to be Don Cossack. I just can’t see Vautour and Cue Card competing with him up that final hill. Djakadam may be the danger.

(TC) Cue Card, Vautour, and Don Cossack look very closely matched. The one we don’t have a form angle on is Don Poli. We know he stays all day but we don’t know if he has the gears to go with this lot. Fascinating race. Providing he is fit, I have a funny feeling about VAUTOUR. He needs the rain to stay firmly away but his best form is at Cheltenham and I do think he is the one that might just have the performance in him to distinguish himself. Ruby will have to be very, very good with him in the early part of the race. Hope it’s a cracker and it really is anyone’s guess! He could just have that next level in him.

(WF) Am not even going to talk about any other horse. Don Poli will win the Gold Cup is a proper National hunt horse. Stays jumps and is reliable. To win the gold cup history has told us it takes a real stayer and jumper everything that Don Poli is. When he won the RSA I thought surely that is next year’s Gold Cup Contender. Yes there are flashier, speedier horses but he always just does enough. We don’t actually know how good he really is. Put a line through the Punchestown run he had tough season. He has beaten Many Clouds which people have dismissed that form like with his Lexus win when beating First Lieutenant, I personally don’t think he was 100% that day and people say he loves a bog, heavy ground the only way he will win but that race proved different, he will improve on the better ground and He missed his last race to keep fresh for this race. The race will set up perfectly with him, surely Smad Place will go off quick in front as he has been doing all season, I can even the likes of Djakadam trying to go with him (horse that have fallen lto do not have a good record in this race) again his jumping will crack but the fast pace will suit Don Poli to a tee and the way he powered up the hill last year proves he has an accelerator and will accelerate past a few tired horses the likes of non-stayers Cue Card and Vautour up the hill and watch out if Willie decides to put some blinkers on him even tho he doesn’t need them, they will just improve his chances.


Foxhunters Chase

(BB) On The Fringe will win.

(BS) On the Fringe is different gear to them. Second best bet of the week. The other one runs in the Mares Novice Hurdle but those sitting on the front row might well have picked up on that by now.

(NB) On The Fringe, he looks the one to beat, will have a top amateur on board and won easily last year.

(OD) A cheeky fiver e/w on Pacha Du Polder just to bring a smile to stick’s face!

(S) Seriously turned off by the circus this race has become this year but I will be on PAINT THE CLOUDS.

(WF) On the Fringe looks the horse to beat - Victoria Pendelton will get round and good luck to her but won’t be winning.


Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey's Handicap Hurdle

(BB) Whiteout 25/1 each way at the moment but it will be bigger on the day. There’s one piece of early season form on good ground when he ran second to Identity Thief that would make this animal a 150+ horse. Rated 135 for this race. He’s been nursed all season to keep this mark and I’m quite keen on this if it gets in.

(NB) Pine Creek would be a fascinating runner in the “boys” race, as his trainer bows out from the NH game and back over hurdles he could be a dark horse.

(OD) Hard to know what will even run but Roadie Joe was a good winner of the Persian War at Chepstow on good ground and 137 might not be a bad mark. Jetstream Jack also a tentative poke if he gets in.

(S) All those I had sneaky fancy for have fallen by the wayside so only a tentative vote for TULLY EAST. It’s a good race for novices and this one has shown some smart form.

(SBC) Re the forum's favourite, Mr Henderson, I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say let's hope he has a great meet. The one of his that really interests me is, my old fave, MIGHT BITE if he turns up on the concluding day in the conditionals race. I've no idea if he will but will deffo say that off 138 he has the potentially to tear this field to shreds. His 2 runs in hurdle races, last term, were most promising and don't forget he is a half-bro to the dual Grade 1 winning hurdler, Beat That.


Grand Annual

(BB) - Rock The World is rated 140 and hasn’t run since last Autumn when winning easily at Cheltenham. I think the mark’s been saved. 16/1.

(NB) In the Grand Annual, the lucky last, I am going double handed with Croco Bay and Next Sensation. These have both been plotted for this race and both are on fair marks in comparison to their good efforts last season.

(OD) Baily Green keeps jumping off the page at me and might run in this off 145 – remember him chasing Simonsig home in the Arkle? Mr Henderson will no doubt have Lough Kent ready for this and I think Germany Calling will appreciate some better ground.

(S) I have backed last years placed horse CROCO BAY ante post and he is a little better off than he was last year. The Irish have a decent record and I will have a saver on VELVET MAKER.

(WF) Rock the world - has been aimed for this race not run since October is the most unexposed in the race, looks very well weighted and holds some great form and Jesse Harrington knows to how to get a horse ready for the festival.


THE VERY BEST OF LUCK EVERYONE !!!

 

Ha ha good luck with Old Guard .................... Nicholls probably putting us away again with his "dire" work ....

 

Where's the Nass money going now?