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The 2016 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by OddDog, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    The 2016 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase

    3 miles and half a furlong, with 19 fences to be jumped, is the challenge facing the runners in the first handicap of the festival, the 3rd race on Tuesday. A number of horses may end up running here as a Grand National prep so are perhaps best watched, but a horse needs to see out the trip very well to be winning this and clearly jumping at pace will be required. I’ve listed the last 10 winners below with their BHA rating, 6 out of 10 were rated between 142 and 146 but 4 winners have been right down the bottom of the weights in the 128-132 range. Top weight this year in the initial weights is Sausalito Sunrise who is rated 163, 5lbs clear of Wonderful Charm.


    Previous Winners With BHA Rating

    2015 The Druids Nephew 146
    2014 Holywell 145
    2013 Golden Chieftain 132
    2012 Alfie Sherrin 128
    2011 Bensalem 143
    2010 Chief Dan George 142
    2009 Wichita Lineman 142
    2008 An Accordion 143
    2007 Joes Edge 130
    2006 Dun Doire 129

    The betting is currently very open, as one would expect, and it probably makes sense to wait until final declarations or even 3 minutes before the off before getting involved.

    Latest Prices from Oddschecker

    Personally the race has been tainted with agony for me over the last few years, real seconditis with an e/w on Ma Filleule at 33s (2nd to Holywell) and a win bet on Carole's Legacy (just touched off by Bensalem). I also tipped up Golden Chieftain but was stuck at Frankfurt Airport due to snow the whole Tuesday and couldn't get a bet on <doh>

    I like another Tizzard runner, Theatre Guide, at this stage.
     
    #1
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  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Amazingly open. Take out Out Sam and there is no less than 30 horses quoted between 10/1 and 16/1, 7 of which are quoted 12/1 or less. Congratulations to whoever gets this race right.
     
    #2
  3. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Does Sausolito run in this? Makes a massive difference to the race if he doesn't.
     
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  4. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I believe that is the plan Nass
     
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  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    It makes the bottom of the handicap around 10st 8 on my book. I like Spring Heeled at the bottom of the weights, look at his festival record.
     
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  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    How do you mean Nass? He's one of those quoted at 14s/16s
     
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  7. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Weights would go up and it'd be such a compact handicap. Wondered if they might run in a stakes race or wait for Aintree.
     
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  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I think you just answered my question before I asked it Nass. The reverse of one of the "2 Ronnies" sketches.
     
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  9. tward07

    tward07 Well-Known Member

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    1 that i am interested in is Beg To Differ. It may be a struggle for him off 143 to get into the race with Sausalito Sunrise running but if he get in he has a lovely weight of 10st 6lb. Jonjo has a great record in the race winning with Holywell 2 years ago and Alfie Sherrin 2 years before that. Is an unexposed improver and had a good 2nd at the gold cup trip in January. Big chance at 20/1 NRNB i believe.
     
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  10. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    143 would see him running in a normal year tward, plenty of those above him will be coming out. Good spot <ok>
     
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  11. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Looks like I'm with Oddy on this one as I too like Theatre Guide... No bet as of yet but I will wait till the day... Currently 14/1...
     
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  12. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    Fingal Bay ew @ 16s. Has run nicely in decent races throughout this campaign whilst still managing to reduce his mark to 141. 2 years ago he edged a thriller in the Pertemps off 148. He'll do for me. The danger is Spring Heeled.
     
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  13. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Been a bit of a cliff horse for me over the years Chan and, even though I had him down as a future Gold Cup candidate in his novice hurdle days, I don't think he is as effective over fences for whatever reason. Good luck with him <ok>
     
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  14. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Gets in off 11-02 Tward, looks to have a very nice chance <ok>
     
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  15. tward07

    tward07 Well-Known Member

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    Lovely Oddy thanks, definitely my main pick for the race. 16s best available now.
     
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  16. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I'm sure I was on Indian Castle e/w in this last year when he came 4th. He runs of a 5lbs lower mark this year ......................

    I'll have talked myself into backing half the field within an hour <laugh>
     
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  17. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Weights gone up. Compact handicap at the top
     
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  18. tward07

    tward07 Well-Known Member

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    The joys of having Monday off before the festival, you feel confident about your selections for other people to make you question youself constantly. <laugh>
     
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  19. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Stats posted by Woolly on the preview night:
    • 12 of the last 15 winners carried less than 11st to victory.
    • There has not been a winner rated higher than 150 for thirty years plus.
    • 11 of the last 15 winners were amongst the top four in the betting.
    • Novices have won four of the last nine runnings
    All points to Out Sam <ok>
     
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  20. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Five out of last nine weren't novices old bean...
     
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