[The Athletic] Why feast has turned to famine for Liverpool’s front three

Liverpool are the Premier League’s top scorers with 37 goals in 17 games. Mohamed Salah is leading the race for the Golden Boot with 13 goals.

However, feast has turned to famine. Their defence of the top-flight crown has been hampered recently by an alarming lack of fluency to their attacking play.

Jurgen Klopp has repeatedly bemoaned the absence of “rhythm” with Liverpool failing to score in back-to-back league matches for the first time since May 2018. The influence of Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane and Salah has waned.

Since thrashing Crystal Palace 7-0 last month, Liverpool have managed a combined total of seven attempts on target in games against West Bromwich Albion, Newcastle United and Southampton. A return of just two points out of a possible nine has cost them their place at the top of the Premier League with Manchester United — who they face at Anfield on Sunday.

A minor blip or genuine cause for concern ahead of a potentially season-defining contest? Are Liverpool’s front three misfiring or are they just being starved of decent service? We assessed their output in the search for answers….

It seems wrong to discuss Salah with any negativity given that he is comfortably Liverpool’s top scorer. On the face of it, Salah’s contribution is as strong as it has ever been with 13 league goals in 16 appearances.

However, five of those were penalties which brings him down to a modest eight non-penalty goals. What is a little more interesting is if we dig deeper into his non-penalty expected goals (xG), which measures the quality of the shots taken in open play. The higher the number, the higher the quality of chances Salah is being presented with.

Since his record-breaking debut campaign for Liverpool when he averaged 0.96 goals with an xG of 0.7 per 90 minutes, Salah has been hovering either side of 0.5 xG per 90 minutes over the past two seasons — a fantastic return which equates to him getting chances worthy of a goal every two games.

The 2020-21 season looks a little different with an xG per 90 of 0.34, which is quite a drop-off. That puts him at an expected goal ratio of one in every three games. That figure means he is the seventh-best attacking wide man in the league this season based on his xG. Last season he was second-best in the league behind only Raheem Sterling.

His penalty record is outstanding, scoring 15 out of 15 spot-kicks since missing against Huddersfield Town in October 2017, but that is not a reliable source of income for a forward as the awarding of them is so variable.

Stripping back the shots from the spot reveals that Salah is getting fewer chances to score in open play this season.



(list only includes players who have played 450+ mins or more than five games)

Salah’s drop-off is the most stark of Liverpool’s front three. Mane, who has scored six Premier League goals, has been remarkably consistent with an xG of 0.45 per 90 across the past three seasons, and has slightly increased that to 0.48 per 90 in 2020-21.

Firmino, who has scored five times in the top-flight in 2020-21, has shown steady consistency with an xG per 90 of 0.44 (2018-19) and 0.42 (2019-20) with a similar output so far this term of 0.39 xG per 90. Although it’s a smaller sample size to draw upon halfway through the season, Salah appears to be below par for his own standards.

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It has always felt as though Salah’s productive goalscoring has been based on getting a high quantity of shots rather than elite finishing ability per se. Interestingly, the number of (non-penalty) shots he is taking in open play is the lowest it has been since he arrived at Liverpool. Last season he averaged four shots per game and this season that figure is down to 3.3. That difference might not sound considerable but across a 38-game season that could result in almost 27 fewer shots at goal.

Likewise, Firmino has also experienced a drop-off from an average of three shots per game last season to 2.4 in this campaign. Mane has increased his shooting on average — from 2.5 to 3.2 in 2020-21.

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In addition, the quality of Salah’s shots (xG per shot) has gone down slightly, with an expected value of 0.13 per shot last season compared to 0.10 per shot this. The best highlight of this is shown below. He is yet to take a shot in the six-yard box in 2020-21 — just compare that to the graph above.

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Similarly, it is a small sample to go from but Salah is overperforming against his xG in open play (eight goals versus 5.5 xG) with the figures enhanced by his stunning long-range strike after coming off the bench against Crystal Palace.

Mane and Firmino are slightly underperforming against their xG in open play this season. Mane has scored six with an xG of 7.18. However, given that his goal output has not fallen below his xG in the past two seasons it looks likely he will return to better goalscoring form.

The Senegal forward had endured the worst barren run of his Anfield career, having gone eight league games without a goal before netting in last month’s thrashing of Palace.

He then opened the scoring before Klopp’s side were pegged back by West Brom and he looked the most likely to provide a cutting edge when Liverpool fired blanks at St Mary’s.

Firmino has scored five from open play with an xG of 5.99. The Brazilian boasts three assists in the Premier League in 2020-21 — the same as Salah and one more than Mane.



In terms of creativity amongst the front three, we can look at expected assists (xA) — measuring the likelihood that a given pass will become a goal assist. Firmino’s xA numbers have dipped most dramatically from 0.20 per 90 minutes last season to 0.13 this season. Salah’s has gone down from 0.24 to 0.21 per 90 and Mane’s from 0.22 per 90 to 0.16. In other words, all three forwards are creating poor quality chances for each other this term.

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Other factors need to be considered. Salah and Mane have had their season interrupted by positive tests for COVID-19. With Salah, there has been noise around his long-term future after eyebrows were raised at him giving a rare interview to Spanish outlet AS last month.

Klopp has dismissed talk of the Egyptian being unsettled and insists the player’s attitude and commitment around the squad has not changed. However, Salah has been on the periphery of recent league matches. He had fewer touches than any other outfield starter for Liverpool against Newcastle and Southampton.

Rotating the front three is not really an option with Diogo Jota still sidelined by the knee injury he suffered in early December.

The front three do not operate in a bubble. They are heavily reliant on the other departments the team functioning to a high level and that has not always been the case this season.

Having broken a host of records in accumulating 97 and 99 points in back-to-back campaigns, standards have slipped across the board. There have been mitigating circumstances.

A crippling injury crisis, battles with COVID-19 and a packed fixture schedule has contributed to Liverpool dropping 18 points already — three more than the whole of last season.

Their eye-catching overall tally of 37 league goals includes seven against Palace and four against Leeds United and Wolverhampton Wanderers. That is 41 per cent of their goals in three matches.

Away to Brighton, Fulham, Newcastle and Southampton, as well as at home to West Brom, they scored twice from open play in seven and a half hours.

Teams parking the bus against Liverpool is nothing new. Last season they were lauded for finding a way to win no matter what challenge presented itself.

When teams sat back, Klopp’s men were patient, kept the ball moving at pace and usually found a way through. Once in front they were adept at controlling matches and getting the job done.

However, the absence of first-choice centre-backs Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez has had a sizeable impact on their ability to build attacks from the back in the same fashion. The data backs up the belief that Liverpool’s approach play has become more laboured — playing in front of teams rather than getting in behind them.

Liverpool’s average possession time in the past two seasons was 24.7 seconds. Since Van Dijk’s injury against Everton in October, their average possession time has increased to 27.2 — they are holding onto the ball nearly three seconds more.

This is neatly dovetailed by the difference in Liverpool’s sequence of play when in possession. Over the past two seasons, Liverpool averaged 18.5 times per game where they had 10 passes or more. Since Van Dijk’s injury, this is 21.4 times per game — almost three sequences more.

It suggests that Liverpool are holding onto the ball longer and potentially recycling possession when they may be better off playing that high-risk-high-reward pass that could unlock the door.

Of course it is great to have possession, but it is what you do with it that counts. The speed of play is what can disrupt teams and enable the Liverpool forwards to do the most damage. Put into context, Liverpool had 67 per cent possession against Southampton last time out in the Premier League but did not register a shot on target until the 75th minute — their latest in a league match since December 2015.

In open play, Liverpool created 10.6 chances per 90 minutes last season. Since Van Dijk’s injury that number has dropped down to 8.2.

The lack of spark and guile from midfield should be addressed in the coming weeks with the increasing influence of Thiago Alcantara.

The Spain international was bought from Bayern Munich to make Klopp’s side less predictable and give them a new dimension in the centre of the park but a knee injury has so far restricted him to 242 top-flight minutes. The visit of United will be only his third Premier League start.

Similarly, the return to fitness of Xherdan Shaqiri and Naby Keita should help as Klopp’s creative options belatedly start to grow. Curtis Jones has made massive strides forward this season but it would be wrong to burden the teenager with unfair expectations.

As well as injuries, Liverpool’s midfield has been weakened by Fabinho having to drop into the backline to ease the centre-back shortage. The same is true when Jordan Henderson is pressed into duty there.

Captain Jordan Henderson has been the key man to drive the team forward. This is notable by him being the top central midfielder in the league for passes made into the final third (16.2 per 90). Furthermore, he ranks third for the most attempted passes into the penalty area (6.3 per 90) behind Bruno Fernandes (8 per 90) and Kevin De Bruyne (8.6 per 90).

However, this does not quite show the clear picture as Henderson is not the same profile as Fernandes and De Bruyne from a creative perspective. If we were to look at the expected assists (xA) compared with all midfielders, the Manchester pair remain in the top two in the league (Fernandes with 0.36 xA per 90 and De Bruyne with 0.29 xA per 90). Henderson? He falls down to 27th in the list, with 0.08 xA per 90 — only marginally better than team-mates Gini Wijnaldum (0.06) and Jones (0.07). Put simply, creativity is not coming from the centre of the pitch.

The other outlet to consider when looking at the service to the front three is the contribution of Liverpool’s marauding full-backs.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (13) and Andy Robertson (12) provided 25 assists between them in the title-winning season. Yet as we approach the halfway point of 2020-21, Alexander-Arnold has just two league assists. Robertson, who is a strong contender for Liverpool’s player of the season so far, leads the way with five.

Klopp recently spoke about the problems Alexander-Arnold has faced this season. “He started late, was out for a while with early COVID and had an injury as well, so he had no pre-season,” the manager said. “Now he has to find his top shape again and that will happen sooner rather than later.”

In open play, Alexander-Arnold still tops the list for full-backs in the league for passes into the final third (10.6 per 90) and passes into the penalty area (9.5 per 90).

But where there is significant room for improvement is regarding the number of chances he is creating from open play. When you take out set pieces, he has the ninth-best output for a full-back for chances created (key passes and assists) with 1.0 per 90. Reflective of his form this season, Robertson is third on the list with 1.3 chances created behind Joao Cancelo at Manchester City and Lucas Digne at Everton.



Last season Alexander-Arnold was creating 1.4 chances per game in open play, far higher than his return of 1.0 per 90. Robertson has had no such drop-off — not falling below 1.3 open play chances per game since 2018-19.

Liverpool urgently need their front three firing on all cylinders in order to get their title challenge back on track. They need more from Salah, Mane and Firmino but it is a collective issue that requires a collective response against United.

 

So, Salah's **** if you take away the penalties. The whole team is suffering from the loss of VVD.

 

It's actually the opposite - he's our best attacker. Scores more goals from open play despite having less chances. The problem is our whole right flank is suffering and Salah is being starved of the ball - Hendo not playing on the right side as much, and Trent being out of form. Get him on the ball more and we will score more goals IMO.

 

summary: we are not making enough real chances.

 

Hopefully we see Trent get back to top form because he is our chief creator and it will help relieve the pressure from Robbo. One of the great things about how we have played over the past 2 years is ability to switch play and attack down both flanks. With Trent out of form, everything is funnelled down the left.

 

Many of the goals we scored in this and the previous seasons were by our 2 full backs crossing the ball early for the front trio to then exploit and score, taking advantage of the unprepared defence. Quite a few were also from the opposition losing the ball when they pushed forward and the likes of firminho and Mane and the midfield pressing and pinching the ball and feeding Salah or scoring themselves.

we don’t do so well when there is a massed organised defence in front of us. The attacking full backs are not that effective nor the pressing that productive. The lower placed teams have learnt that and we are less able to breach an organised defence. Without a crowd they have not felt under pressure to attack and have been happy to sit back for a point. Noticed that once the league resumed last season without crowds our away results were poorer?

On Sunday , you can bet your house that MU will defend most of the time with a very defensive midfield and release their front 2 on fast counters whenever they can. No doubt in my mind they’ll play for a draw as that will keep them at the top.

And this must mean yes feeding our most proficient attacker Salah more of the ball but also us cutting the supply to their strikers.

 

You also have to say that’s teams havent as much worked us out, but they’ve had 2 years to properly study how we play and come up with a tactic to negate it.

let’s be honest and say it wasn’t rocket science how we played. We pressed hard to win the ball back, pushed full backs up and crossed balls in. Now that’s pretty simplistic view and it isn’t just as easy as that, but we haven’t really developed our game because last 2 years we haven’t needed to. In 90% of games it works and we win. So why would you change the way you play when you’re the best team in the world?

however over time, teams collectively find a way. One team plays a way and it works so another copy and it works and suddenly you look out of form. That added to injuries to key personnel, congestion fixtures and covid where high tempo is key to our style and lots of diff reasons why we aren’t as good now as we have been.

in theory Thiago was brought in to offer that something different and who knows with him not injured maybe a few of those draws would have been wins and we’d be 5 points clear and not so concerned.

Do think this season will show how good klopp is. Can he, or will he, adapt our style to negate all the above issues to make us more unpredictable and finds new ways of scoring and winning games? Or will he stick to what has made us the best team the last couple years?