The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase - Friday March 18 2016

Fair reasoning Bobster. I just think think Coneygree wants to be leading more than Vautour though. If he can win from the front, with his natural speed, I think we're looking at a great and even though I'm more financially involved in the Gigginstown horse I'd absolutely love Vautour to win. I've huge doubts though, the King George will provide some guide, but it's entirely feasible he could get 3m round Kempton but not stay a Gold Cup trip. He's definitely the one at the head of the market with most to prove but he's most probably the best horse in it. We just saw today, a horse he completely kicked out of the ground in the Supreme, go second jolly for the Arkle. No other horse in this field could have done what he done at either of the last two Festivals imo.

 

If you actually watch Don Cossacks defeat at Cheltenham in the Ryanair he was very unlucky, he made 1 error in the whole race at the 3rd last which cost him a lot of ground on the eventual winner Uxizandre, and even then it took 2 horses to sandwich him going to the 2nd last fence to stop him putting up a serious challenge to the winner. At every other fence he was foot perfect, so to say he doesn't like the track based on 1 error is a little naive if you ask me. We where told the likes of Sire De Grugy and Dodging Bullets didn't like Cheltenham before they won championship races there, so I don't think it's wise to dismiss a horse completely based on its Cheltenham record.

You talk about his 26 length thumping of Cue Card like it's some sort of negative, and I have to admit I didn't think he'd be a Gold Cup horse after that show of speed, and I only really backed him again at Punchestown through loyalty having backed him all last season. But in the race at Punchestown he proved how much stamina he has, coming off the bridle along way out and battling his way past Djakadam and Road to Riches finding loads when asked to run out an emphatic winner, and this was over 25 furlongs, so only 1 short of the Gold Cup trip, and judging by how he finished I don't think there's any doubt that the Gold Cup trip is well within his limits.

He is the highest rated horse in the race for a reason, as he was the best and most consistent horse in training last year. This is because he can run to a high level over any trip, and on any ground, not to mention how robust he is, to run aswell as he did at all 3 festivals, just goes to show what a tough horse he is. So I think of all the contenders, Don Cossack has by far the most going for him at this stage.

Il be looking forward to getting an enhanced price off you come March!

 

Would be suicide on Vautour to go for the lead, he might be the fastest horse but he is also the most doubtful stayer, to get the lead from Coneygree he would have to use plenty early in the race and that is surely a bad idea.

Vautour would have to work for the lead all the way with Coneygree in the race, hes not going to get his own way in front and be able to take a breather, no chance.

 

I never said he didnt like the track although I doubt its ideal for him and 3m1 at Punchestown is still a fair way off a Gold Cup. He wont get up the hill.

7/2 for the King George looks a fair bet, 6/1 for the Gold Cup looks like its missing a 1 at the start.

 

We'll see come March. Rightly or wrongly, Mullins and Ruby won't give a toss about Coneygree with all their lines through Djakadam. If the option is to take Vautour out of his natural game and rhythm and simultaneously give Coneygree an easy lead up front there's no way at all they'll do that. They'll ride Vautour like he's the best horse in the race, under the best jockey and they'll ride him like he stays the trip.

 

Vautour will end up in the Ryanair if he dissappoints in the King George.

 

I hope so. I don't think he should even be considered for the Gold Cup.

 

Well you mentioned his defeat at Cheltenham, so I just assumed that's what you where getting at.

The King George is as they say a wheel barrell job for me, il be having my biggest bet of the year on the day. He's already proven he's miles better than Cue Card, whilst Vautour only performs at the festival. Im convinced it will be a steering job for Don Cossack, and can see it going something like his Aintree win

 

I am firmly of the belief that Coneygree will grind them into submission and break their hearts - just as 'The Tank' did in '08. Christ knows why he isn't fav.

 

On another note; although it is sporting of connections to want to run Coneygree in the Hennessy on Saturday, I wouldn't risk him if he were mine after spreading his plate just last week.

Won't stop me betting on him when he drifts to 5/1 on the day though

 

Would love to see Coneygree do it- hope he is A1 fitness wise. It's a monumental task on his hands and Denman was a monster so it's real pinnacle level winning these off top weight.

The good news for him is that Don Poli and Cue Card, who it could be argued were lurking on dangerous marks, won't line up. Valseur Lido e/w looks a very good place shout but I hope Coneygree wins.

 

No mention of Saphir Du Rheu so far. He is getting 9lbs from Coneygree on Saturday so you should be expecting a good run. He seems to be versatile ground wise and is a strong traveller - i think he was just done for pace in last years world hurdle on good ground over 3 miles. Extra 2 furlongs will be right up his street. If i was having an ante post bet right now he looks the best value.

 

Smad Place deserves consideration after that Hennessey win. Up with the pace, jumped like a stag and won ridiculously easy. It's a serious race this year, 16/1 for this lad certainly isn't overestimating his chance in my view. Winning a Hennessey, even a poor one, by 12 lengths off 155 puts him firmly into this debate.

 

Remember he's had a wind op too during the break and much like Cue Card it could well have worked wonders for the horse. A prep run at Kempton blew the cob webs off and I don't think winning a Hennessey more or less on the bridle can be ignored.

 

Don Poli done the Don Poli thing today beating Many Clouds a tad sneakily, much more than the winning margin suggested. Lovely comeback run, done everything right and considering the saddle slipped you'd have to be very positive on this comeback. What struck me was how economical his jumping was, married of course to his well known lazy running style. Wins ears pricked, there seems to be loads left and Bryan Cooper must get fooled at times by his crafty, lazy running style. Perfect for the Gold Cup.

A bit was made about how Southfield Theatre was beaten 44l by Coneygree in comparison to the RSA distance Don Poli put between himself and that rival. Today the gap was 59l between the pair.

Bookmakers reacted positively by cutting Willie Mullins RSA winner. I'd go as far to say whatever beats this lad (if indeed he is beaten) will win the Gold Cup. It's going to take a hell of an effort to hold this guy off up the hill, that's certain

 

Agree.

If he gets alongside any of the top ones there's only one winner.

Coneygree and Vautour will have to play catch me if you can and try to jump him out of contention before he becomes a factor.

 

Many Clouds a national winner took 2/3 lengths out of him when he quickened up! Coneygree, Vautour and Don Cossack will take 10 lengths out of him when they quicken up

 

You'd have to know how fit Don't Poli was to properly assess yesterday's performance. He did seem to win cosily enough in the end with dodgy tack. On the flip side the Grand National winner was giving him 5 lb and mistook the last for Bechers Brook, gave it 2 foot of air and landed steeply and lost momentum. DP is now joint 2nd fav with Coneygree and if I was playing antepost, which I'm not, my money would be on the reigning champ. Shaping up to be a cracker though that's for sure. I'm tempted to break my exile from the Festival Friday to witness it up close.

 

Djakadam was sensational today. Jumped beautifully. Last years race is stacking up nicely. I stand by him being the best priced each way shot this year.