The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase - Friday March 18 2016

Just a point on Don Poli yesterday, he was on a flat track remember- it's the stiff finish that will suit him better in a Gold Cup. As pointed out above- they key is how far outpaced he gets.

Djakadam surprised me as to how good he was at a shorter trip today- he's a horse going in the right direction. Great for the Gold Cup as a race that he has shown he is still very much in the picture.

 

Many Clouds was miles behind in last years Gold Cup, so it's hard to believe he achieved much if anything in battling to a hard fought victory getting 5 pounds off that rival aswell. I'd be fairly confident that Don Cossack for example would have beat Many Clouds 25-30 lengths on the bridle getting 5 pounds, maybe even more, so im suprised bookmakers feel the need to shorten Don Poli up.

Now I actually do like Don Poli but yesterday's effort wasn't at all impressive, and certainly doesn't enhance his chances at the festival. If Many Clouds goes in the Gold Cup again he'll probably be atleast 25+ lengths off the winners, so to my estimations Don Poli would have to find another 30+ lengths on yesterday's form.

You can make the argument that he only does enough, but I'd like to see him tested by a genuine high class horse, as so far he hasn't proved he can run to the level required to compete in a Gold Cup, never mind win one

 

I get the thinking re the Gold Cup running of Many Clouds Shergy, I was one who was expecting him to run a blinder as the perception was he'd relish the rain softened ground. It's entirely possible that as he was being prepared for that big race in April he wasn't quite fully primed and of course, a closer finish there would have seen a hike in his weight... And that could well have blew the Grand National dream apart!

Don Poli will never win by 25l on the bridle, ever, he wins the Don Poli way

 

Sign of a very good horse - will just always do enough to win, horrible horse to back as he always looks like getting beat, horrible horse for a jockey as you have keep niggiling at him to get him interested, frustrating but must be awesome to train him as you know he will always pull out more. the Cheltenham hill is like adding an extra furlong on which will suit him to a tee! The fast pace will play to him as they will just come back to him as previously stated the only way he doesn't stand a chance is if it goes from crawl to a sprint but there is no way that will happen with the front runners in the race! When he wins he will won't win stylishly but that's him I can forgive him for his run at punchestown he loves Cheltenham and against quality horses run at a fast pace he will love it Don Poli to pass Coneygree up the hill to become The Champ - who will ride him will be the interesting thing

 

Do we know what the Christmas plans look like this year?

Sir Des Champs and Don Poli in the Lexus? Vautour and Don Cossack King George?

Coneygree?? I would be tempted by the Lexus.

 

I'd have thought they'd be the line-ups toppy! Can't wait for the King George this year, imo the two best chasers in training locking horns

 

I think it was stated last week that it was ‘unlikely’ that he’d run over Christmas with the CGC winners next race most likely to be either Cheltenham's Cotswold Chase or the Denman at Newbury which he won last term.

 

First of all if your primary goal is to win the Grand National then you don't run in the Gold Cup. The target was always the Gold Cup for Many Clouds especially after he won the AON, a Gold Cup trial and that's why he was well fancied on the day, he was 2nd favourite I think. So I'm not buying that he wasn't trained for the race.

The GN was an afterthought, a race which he was a 25/1 shot for, and it turned out to be a gamble that paid off for him.

And as far as the weights are concerned, the weights for the GN are done in January and can't be changed, so even if he had won the Gold Cup, it wouldn't have changed the weight he'd carry in the GN

 

Coneygree isn't in your top two?

 

You're correct in that the weights are decided upon before The Gold Cup so connections would not have been protecting any mark in that race. They also said that The Gold Cup was Plan A last year whereas this year they are aiming at The Grand National as number one priority.

Some horses have, however, used The Gold Cup as a prep race in the past. Hedgehunter, immediately, springs to mind and, before him, I think West Tip was another. More recently, I'm sure I recall Paul Nicholls saying he was considering the same about Rocky Creek?

 

Afternoon chaps,

Christmas will tell us a lot about the GC and who's up to taking on the guys from last year.

For me, if you have AP vouchers on Vautour you're mad and I think he'll end up in the Ryanair. I really do think that they all have it to do to beat Coneygree. There is absolutely no reason to suggest that he isn't improving himself (he's only had 5 chase runs including at Sandown this season) so for me it's going to take a monster performance from someone to de-throne him come March regardless of the ground.

Djakadam was only 6 last year so is also entitled to improve again himself this year and I did like his run the weekend. Road to Riches had his chance last year for me.

Of the new comers you'd have to be taken with big Don Cossack. I read something quickly on here about his Cheltenham record not being great but you'd be foolish IMO to dismiss him on a fall (when travelling well) and a 3rd in last season's Ryanair when he had a horrible time coming for home.

Not sure on Don Poli yet. I'd want to see him at Xmas before I decide on whether he has the pace to stay with them, no doubt he'll be staying on at the end but like others have said how far back will he be? Won't be wanting to give Coneygree a yard. But he's a possible and I was quietly impressed with his beating of Many Clouds (MC had race fitness on his side) as not all horses are bridle horses.

 

Close 3rd for me at the moment

 

My personal views at present time on the top at the market.

Vautour - Completely underpriced based on his demolition job in the JLT - 5 furlongs less than this trip. He was half cooked on seasonal appearance and made to work much harder than expected. I think hes all about speed and wouldn't surprise me to see him win the KG but i can't have him for this at all complete unknown.

Coneygree - Done everything asked for him so far, if these recent niggles are nothing to worry about it wouldnt surprise me to see him improve on last years performance. He likes a bit of cut and he got plenty of it on day 4 last year - will he be as good on good good to soft?

Don Poli - reminds me so much of Bobs Worth, multiple winner at the festival and doing so in lazy fashion seems to have a limitless engine and will devour that hill has to have a huge chance.

Djakadam - Never warmed to him but his demolition at the weekend over a short trip got my attention, very fluent jumper and still a very young horse - he is likely to improve aswell.

Don Cossack - Badly hampered in the Ryanair and ever since has demolitied all that has come near him - strongest form on offer currently.

Cue Card - Loveable horse looked back to his near best last time out could give Vautour a good run if he goes for the KG. if he keeps right would certainly stand a cracking chance on best form in the big 1.

Road to Riches - His chance to win was last year, cant see him improving past the first 2 home and i would imagine he would be 3rd or 4th pick by Giggs.

Sir Des Champs - My favourite horse in training, proved his wellbeing after injury and if we got decent ground come March i would fancy his chances to go close.

At present i would say Don Cossack/Djakadam front 2 with Coneyfree and the Don behind i cant figure this out at all. Fingers crossed all make it safe and sound.

 

Looks like those of us dreamers (me) can now forget VAUTOUR as a Gold Cup contender. Probably paid the price for being up near a very strong early gallop in the King George where he shaped as the best horse in the field only to be chinned late on by the resurgent Cue Card. Still, it was a hell of a performance from a 6 yo but surely connections know this horse won't get home in a Gold Cup now. CUE CARD most certainly did stamp a solid claim as a contender but stamina doubts still linger for me. He stayed on as well as he ever has yesterday however and he could well go close in the big one but you'd suspect a few will stay on more dourly than Colin Tizzards stable star.

 

To be perfectly honest Vautour is a horse of massive ability, his biggest problem is he is trained by a clown who has no idea what is best for his horses . It's just like Usain Bolts trainer trying to make him an 800m runner? It's a ****ing stupid idea! And Willie Mullins has been a complete fool with this horse!

He has a great horse but he try's to run him over a distance he clearly doesn't appreciate.

Vautour always has been Taylor made to be a great 2 mile champion chaser, and anyone with half a brain can clearly see this. So it's about time Willie Mullins was told how ****ing stupid he has been with this horse.

Putting Un De Sceaux, a horse who can't even jump properly above him just proves why Mullins has never won either of the main chasing prizes at Cheltemham, as he clearly has little skill when it comes to judging a horses ability, and what they are best suited by.

It may be harsh to say about the champion jumps trainer in Ireland, but it is very true. Only a complete idiot would think Vautour would stay 3m2 at Cheltenham. The horse is a speed ball, any idiot can see that

 

I wonder how long it will take Mullins to realise how dumb he has been with Vautour

 

Who knows- it was a monster run from a 6 year old. 2 years ago they called Cue Card a non-stayer. I'm Cue Cards biggest fan and always thought he would stay one day- not necessarily win because there are outstanding horses in opposition- but he always looked like he could stay one day.

Vautour was imperious on Boxing Day but for the final 300 yards and final fence. He still doesn't look 100% relaxed and settled to me. With some subtle work he might learn how to be led by another horse and in 2 years time id be fascinated to see him over a King George trip. Nothing wrong with a Ryanair this year because he is lightly raced and can keep learning from the experience.

I have little doubt he could also be a Champion Chase contender but he isn't an out and out sprinter like a UDS. At the moment, he's in catch 22 distance wise, but don't do what you all did with Cue Card- give them time and patience to grow up for goodness sake. Especially when you know they are talented- it's not the animals fault they get hyped.

 

Vautour would wipe the floor with UDS, even over 2 miles. willie Mullins has made a huge error in putting his trust in a horse who lets be honest can't even jump properly