THE NOT 606 Cheltenham Preview Evening: 2014.

It gives me great pleasure to launch the Not 606 Cheltenham Preview 2014. We will publish Days one and two now, with Days three and 4 on their way from the forums very own mod- OddDog!

The preview has skipped Champion Bumper and handicaps purely due to scheduling and time available. I ask that you all please add any selections for those races to this thread for discussion!

This years panel has featured a total of 9 contributors:

TopClass TC
OddDog OD
Master of Gleasga MOG
Boston Bob BB
Woolcombe FollyWF
ROTO
Nass NB
Joe Lively JL
STICK

It has, as ever, been a great effort from the 9 'panelists' to take their time to write out large and thoughtful previews. Hopefully this year we will have some good success! Thanks to all of you, I encourage anyone else to add in their thoughts and to make this a top discussion as we reach Tuesday. As always- a pleasure to read- TC

SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE

TC: Always a fascinating betting heat and this year it is Paul Nicholls' turn to have the hype horse in the shape of Irving. He has looked a top class horse since going hurdling but it is visually that he has looked good- the form isn't backing it up but then again, what can he do other than win like a good horse? Vautour is a Neptune horse and Willie knows it, so I oppose, even though his stamina puts him bang in contention. It is value hunting that I think is the way forward for this years festival opener and whilst he faces a huge step up in class, I am excited about the prospects of VALSEUR LIDO. Paul Townend got off him after winning and said he felt like 'one of the good ones' and for me that is a big statement from a man who rides a lot of class horses at home. Davy Russell is as equally excited but what an opportunity for Bryan Cooper to take the festival by storm and landing the opener having being named as Gigginstowns retained jockey. Outside of that, Western Boy will be spot on for this and write Vaniteux off at your peril, having impressed so much at home with his rapid development since Christmas that Henderson has had to completely change his mind and send him here.

OD: I always think you need 2 in this race so alongside the obvious choice of Vautour, who impressed me massively when beating The Tullow Tank last time, I will also nominate Philip Hobbs’ Garde La Victoire as a long-range e/w prospect. Garde La Victoire won 2 races early doors on Gd-soft ground and just went down to Ballyalton at Cheltenham in December, showing his appetite for a battle up the hill. I’m happy to put a line through his Tolworth run due to the ground and I think at 33/1 he makes e/w appeal as the strong pace will suit him and he has plenty of experience.

MOG: One of the more intriguing novice hurdles this year with a number of unexposed types and a couple with proven form. Vautour undoubtedly sets a high standard and should be favorite, I was initially against him after the Deloitte but he looks to have everything you want in a Supreme horse and while he promises to be even better over further when tackling fences, I do think he is the one to beat. Wicklow Brave will come there travelling well but he is up against a different level of animal here and will have to improve his jumping technique and prove himself in a fight. I have my doubts about Irving, hes obviously pretty good at beating inferior horses in small fields but this is a different ball game and I think he could struggle with his jumping in a big field with a serious gallop on. Josses Hill brings Grade 1 form to the table, he is rock solid here and is sure to be involved, he probably shouldn’t be a double figure price but I just wonder if he has the natural class to win it. I am big fan of Western Boy, he has a bit to find with the Mullins runners on paper but I reckon he could be the one to give Vautour a race and he will do for me at 20/1 e/w.

BB: Irving and Vautour have both looked very good horses. I'd side with Vautour of the two as I rate The Tullow Tank and that is strong form to deal with that one so very easily last time. As I write they are 5/2 and 3/1 best priced and for me at those prices I wouldn't bother backing either. Wicklow Brave at 6/1 is a ridiculous price based on what he's done. If I had to have a bet today on one of them it would be a small each way on Josses Hill at 12/1. The trainer seems to always have something for this race. He's grade one placed when probably the better fancied of the two Henderson runners that filled the top two berths in the Tolworth. He's going to improve from that run and will be competitive on the Tuesday so 12/1 looks fair.

WF: From 1st looks this looks a 2 horse race really between Irving & Vautour . Which usually throws in a big price winner. Looking at the books- Flat horses do not have a good record in this race, which obviously goes against Irving. Saying that his form is working out fantastically with another runner Splash of Ginge winning the Betfair in good style of whom Irving made look very ordinary. So surely he cant reverse the form. Irving did look good at Kempton lto winning very easily and he certainly looks to have the gears but you have to question whether he will get up the famous hill. Vautour looks to be the big irish punt of the day and again looked a very good winner when putting The Tullow Tank firmly in his place- imo will look to run from the front and run the legs out the field/. Mullins has 3 out of the top 5 so has strong say in the betting which tactics may be run to suit Vautour . Henderson has Josses Hill in their aswell who also has some good form but has to improve to over come the top two. Liquidator looked to cement his place in this earlier this season with some good wins but something went amiss in his last run, coming behind a few of the entrants but has the talent to be placed. Will be very tough but will be one to see on the day of whom to back but from 1st look I have to side with Vautour because of the Mullins Factor

 

ROTO: This is the first time in a few years I don’t really have a strong fancy for the Cheltenham opener. For all I’ve been impressed with market leader Irving thus far, I think he’s definitely going to struggle on Cheltenham’s tough and undulating track and at 5/2 and unproven right handed he doesn’t appeal to me as a betting proposition. Vautour is a bit short in the tooth as well for me at his current price so I’ll probably side with his stable mate Wicklow Brave 13/2 utilising Paddy Power’s offer of money back for 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Improving all the time, Wicklow Brave recorded 3 victories in his last 3 bumper runs where he was particularly impressive in conceding the useful Western Boy 10lb on the final occasion and he has made a seamless transition to hurdling where he has been unbeaten in 2 starts in this sphere. Although he’ll need to brush up on his jumping, Willie Mullins’ 5 year old is in great hands and I think he looks poised to run a big race for last year’s winning trainer.


NB: Willie Mullins looks to be holding all the aces with Vautour and Wicklow Brave(with Faugheen waiting in the wings) both are winning nice races in Ireland and both go to the festival with great chances. I liked Vautour's last race, he really showed a good cruising speed and a nice attitude to make all from the good The Tullow Tank. We then have Irving from Paul Nicholls who looks the obvious challenger from the UK, he won a good handicap last time out and is progressive, but I don't think he is as good as My Tent Or Yours was last season in the Betfair, and that horse failed in the Supreme. The one I am really interested in though is Josses Hill, who looks a proper chaser in the making and has the speed to challenge in a race like the Supreme. He should be better on spring ground and I think he is very unexposed and potentially top class.

STICK: What a cracker to get us started. Until his shocker at Kempton in January I would have been with THE LIQUIDATOR but as he has not been seen since it would take a leap of faith to back him. The Irish do well in this race but more often with one of their lesser fancied horses.
VAUTOUR is their main hope and his demolition of The Tullow Tank reads very well but I think the one to be on is IRVING. Nicholls reckoned before his Kempton run that he had left a bit in the locker and Schofield stated after the race that he will be even better on better ground. They have nothing that can live with him at home and I believe this will be the first of many festival wins

JL: Starting at the top of the market, to my eye Irving is very exciting, has bags of pace, jumps speedily and economically and looks to have plenty of gears. Only slight reservations are going left-handed, and whether he will handle the track. The latter would apply to most of these horses though.
I actually think Vautour posted the best performance form wise when winning from the Tullow Tank, but the more I look at him, I think he might lack a bit of toe, his jumping looks immaculate though.
Wicklow Brave has become a bit of a talking horse in the last few weeks, and would be my each way selection now at the prices. Does he jump well enough to win? He’s definitely got the speed by the looks of things.
Vaniteux seems to have overtaken Josses Hill as Hendersons number 1, and could be the dark horse, but NJH hasn’t got a great record in this, and I’d leave both of them alone for this one.
I don’t think it’s a great renewal in depth really, of those at a bigger price I’d probably be most interested in Gilgamboa, or Wilde Blue Yonder, but IRVING is the confident selection.

The ARKLE Chase​

TC: Two horse race for me. CHAMPAGNE FEVER would be close to 6/4 had he have won the last day and had one more simple prep run and frankly he has some juice left in his price and I am interested. If he jumps well he has a real chance and won't be out of the first two. However, no 2m chaser has impressed me more this side of the shore than Alan Kings VALDEZ- jumps really well (although a slight right-handed tendency) but if that is ironed out he looks like a horse who really has relished the transition to chasing and has jumped very well on the whole. Has a lot of natural speed, attacks the fences and stayed very well at Doncaster when overhauling a spectacular round of jumping fro ARNAUD. The horses with the bigger strides should hold the key. I'd be stunned if Rock On Ruby or Dodging Bullets won this.

OD: You have to respect Champagne Fever’s festival record and there is every chance he can win for the 3rd consecutive year but he makes little appeal at the prices. Alan King’s Valdez will do for me at around the 9/1 mark. This handsome horse with the big white face was superb at Newbury when thrashing Un Bon P’tit Gars in a very fast time (4.7 seconds quicker than standard) and showed he has stamina as well as speed by overhauling Arnaud in the Grade 2 Lightning Novices Chase at Doncaster. I fully expect him to come on again for his run at Doncaster and at 9/1 he’ll do for me.

MOG: The Irish look to be holding all the aces here for my money with Trifolium and Champagne Fever, Trifolium produced the best 2 mile novice performance of the season in the Irish Arkle and while Champagne Fever disappointed in the Racing Post, he was jumping and
travelling really well before making a bad mistake which cost him any chance, his previous festival form speaks for itself. Of the English, Dodging Bullets is not for me, Nicholls has a horrendous record in the race and I just dont take to the horse, Valdez doesnt have the speed and while Rock On Ruby obviously has the class, history says 9yo's dont win the Arkle. Hinterland and Grandouet fought out the strongest english 2 mile race and both have what it takes to play a big part here, Grandouet still has not produced it on the big stage though and Hinterland takes plenty of chances with his low jumping technique. I like Trifolium but you have to worry about him having enough in the tank to out battle Champage Fever up the hill so im with the Mullins runner.

 

BB: I have the decent prices on Champagne Fever and Felix Yonger but one of those is going to be a loser. Champagne Fever will come alive in the Arkle and we'll see the horse he really is. Would I take 3/1 about a Mullins novice chaser in an Arkle? Only if I was smacked off my tits and as that's not my bag it isn't going to happen. Trifolium was brilliant the last day and if reproducing his run he'll be in the first three. 5/1 each way. I can't be bothered looking any further. That will do along with my ante post on Champagne Fever.

WF: For once unlike the last couple of years- this is a wide open race. Champagne Fever still not 100% to go for this race but is a worthy favourite on the factor he is 2/2 of the course, but he will have to jump better to win this and the other worry is he missed his last race he was due to run and whether he will be 100% right for the race. Trifolium a very highly rated horse over in Ireland and is surely one of the best proven jumpers in the field and is very dangerous. Rock on Ruby- again all stats go against him- 9 yr old novice chser- has only had the two runs but has good course form and he has improved his jumping and Harry Fry is very confident of a big run and with the ground getting better, I cant really look past him at the moment and @ 6/1 an e/w bet seems pretty safe bet. Dodging bullets another one with course form and like ROR has improved his jumping with every run- Chasing has really bought hte best out of this horse who is bred by Frankie himself- just missing out to Module lto but did have a weight handicap and must go close but on the hurdling form of the CF & ROR has abit to find. Valdez like DB chasing has bought hte best out of him and with the King stable hitting form he has a chance but has to improve to win this which isn’t past him. Out of the outsider another Mullins runners Djakadam looks a danger at a very good price of 20/1 but I like ROR if the ground is good but Trifolium will be his main danger.

ROTO: This looks a pretty poor renewal in my eyes. Dual Cheltenham Festival winning Champagne Fever heads the market and I think his previous festival glory is the reason why he is a 3/1 shot. An impressive winner of an average Beginners Chase at Punchestown over 2m4f, he was disappointing pitched into Grade 1 Company on his 2nd start at Leopardstown where a bad mistake put paid to his chances and I don’t think he has the pace over the minimum trip unless his jumping is flawless. Those factors coupled with he has yet to race in 2014 certainly is enough for me to look elsewhere in the market. Again, Rock On Ruby looks priced up on his former Cheltenham exploits and sending him chasing now a 9 year old was clearly an afterthought. In effect, he’s won a couple of 2 runner races where his jumping hasn’t been amazing and I think 9/2 is a really poor price. Dodging Bullets has never convinced me as a spring horse and generally saves his best efforts before Christmas and I don’t think his form stacks up all that great either. Although he’s had his breathing issues and is prone to throw in a shocker from time to time, I was very impressed with the manner of Trifolium’s victory in the Irish Arkle and for all the record of horses going on to complete the double is very poor I think if he puts in a performance like he did the last day then he’ll take a lot of beating. I still maintain that if he hadn’t slipped going around the home turn he would have won the 2012 Supreme Novice and if Charles Byrnes can get him to the Festival in peak condition he should go close at 5/1. Not a race I’ll be having anything other than a small bet though.


NB: Rock On Ruby is the best horse in the race on ratings, and that is how many of these Arkle chases go, and with his brilliant festival form, I think he will take all the beating in this race. I don't like Dodging Bullets, Felix Yonger and Valdez, who are all close to the head of the market. I think Champagne Fever is one to take on too, given his poor effort last time out. Trifolium is the big danger for me, he is battle hardened and looks a solid prospect, however its Rock On Ruby for me.

STICK: You have to admire any horse that wins back to back festivals and CHAMPAGNE FEVER will be a warm order for the hat trick but I believe we have one to see off a very strong Irish contingent. At nine it is very late to go chasing but ROCK ON RUBY has taken to it like a duck to water. You don’t beat Hurricane Fly by accident and he has only ever been beaten by the highest class animals. I know Fehily thinks he is on the winner and so do I.

JL: Champagne Fever has been the horse at the top of the market since last years festival it seems, and looks to me to be 3/1 solely based on his previous Festival form. If he turns up 100% he’ll be very hard to beat, but I’ll be taking him on, too many question marks at too short a price.
There was a lot to like about Trifolium’s win in Ireland last time out, but did he beat an awful lot? Apart from Felix Yonger, who I really like, but I’m convinced he hated the ground, I don’t think he beat a great deal, and may find one or two too good.
The one for me would be DODGING BULLETS, a decent but not spectacular hurdler, the transfer to chasing seems to have brought the best out of him and I’ve been very impressed with the way he firstly dealt with Raya Star at Cheltenham earlier in the season, then dismissed Grandouet easily at Kempton over Christmas. Beaten last time out by Module, who is quite smart himself, when conceding weight, and providing he’s come out of that race ok, he’d be my pick. Rock on Ruby is a very admirable horse, but has only won two egg and spoon races over fences and now 9, can’t see him being quite up to this unfortunately.

The MARES Hurdle​

Q
U
E
V
E
G
A

Stick: As with the Champion I made the assumption that ANNIE FLY will go for the World Hurdle and in her absence it is surely a penalty kick again for QUEVEGA but I have backed HIGHLAND RETREAT each way at fancy prices. At 10 QUEVEGA must slow down soon please! A wonderful mare and I would not begrudge her yet another victory.

 

The CHAMPION Hurdle

TC: The best build up to a race ever on not606. The Champion, Hurricane Fly, has produced two very good displays in Ireland in beating the Irish young pretenders. This year however, he meets an English one who should have the tools to win a Champion Hurdle- THE NEW ONE. A real solid season and an uncomplicated horse from a pace perspective- Sam Twiston Davies needs to have the confidence to hold him up and utilise his speed at the right time. His performance at Kempton when getting My Tent Or Yours off the bridle on a speed track made me think this horse is the real deal for a Champion Hurdle. Rock On Ruby turned form on a speedball- Binocular- in 2012. The difference here is that MTOY is better than Binocular was then, and The New One is better than Rock On Ruby. I have tonnes of respect for Hurricane Fly, but Our Conor is the only one who terrifies me because he travelled like something special in the Fly’s backyard of Leopardstown and he might yet have the improvement to do something spectacular in the style of a Rooster Booster.

OD: Hurricane Fly to win this from The New One. I expect STD to strike for home of the bend on The New One and get mugged up the hill by Ruby. Cue scenes of unbridled joy.

JL: And so we come to the most anticipated race of the week. The legend that is Hurricane Fly is coming over to try and retain his crown. I’m convinced he doesn’t really show his best at Cheltenham, and is usually 5 or 6 lbs below par, if this is the case this year he could well be beaten. He deserves the upmost respect and has been a fantastic racehorse, but he’s still one I haven’t really taken to the way I did with Istabraq, Kauto Star, Big Bucks etc.
My Tent or Yours has been in good form this season. The Xmas hurdler I felt was run to suit him, and in the end won well despite having to knuckle down after the last flight. There’s a lot of negativity about whether the course will suit, and whilst I don’t totally agree with that, I do think he’ll beaten by at least one of the others.
The Triumph hurdle was won by a brilliant performance from Our Conor, and although I don’t think the horses he beat are superstars by any means (Rolling Star and Far West spring to mind immediately) he was very impressive. He put it up to the reigning champ on their last run in Ireland on the Hurricane’s home track, and did briefly put his head in front in that race and I would have been disappointed as an Our Conor fan in how easily the Hurricane found it to go back past him.
My idea of the most likeliest winner is THE NEW ONE. Yes he has been beaten twice in his last few runs, but he won the Neptune well last year, and was only beaten half a length in the Christmas Hurdle in a race that was not run to suit, on a track he won’t have been the happiest on, and after clouting the last obstacle. Cheltenham will bring the best out of this horse, and his mix of speed and stamina could prove lethal up the hill. Hurricane Fly and MTOY are the biggest dangers.

MOG: The race of the meeting in terms of class, its a shame we are not going to get the championship gallop it deserves but it should still be a great race. Hurricane Fly is the best hurdler I’ve seen and you write him off at your peril, it would be great to see him winning again at 10yo but for the first time at Cheltenham, hes not for me. Our Conor has improved from run to run this season when chasing Hurricane Flys tail and if he steps forward again, he could have the attributes to get the better of the Champ this time. He was a heavyweight in against featherweights last year and has tremendous power on the bridle which will take him very far in this race but unfortunately for his backers, it wont take him past the line in front. My Tent Or Your got the better of The New One in what was the strongest 2 mile hurdle race run in Britain or Ireland this season by some way, he will win the Arkle next year but he will have to settle much better than usual if he is to have enough left in the tank to get up the hill in front. The New One is absolutely bombproof, too much class, too much heart, too professional, too good for these.

BB:
I've been heavily involved in the debate about this race on here all season. Do I have a strong opinion on who'll win? No. Hurricane Fly is the best horse I have ever seen jump a hurdle. If he turns up at his best he will win. Nothing else will run to the mid 170's. For me it's out of Hurricane Fly, MTOY and Our Connor. I do not rate TNO. If you look at his form it is not good enough to win this race. However, that doesn't mean he can't win it. I just think out of the possible winners he's 4th or 5th in line on what we've seen.


WF: On paper the race of the festival with Hurricane fly going for a 3rd champion hurdle-, The New one looking for some revenge of the NTD , Our Conor- looking to build on his fantastic triumph win. My Tent Or Yours(AP’s choice)- wanting to make up for his second last yr to champagne fever and Jezki wanting to make a name for himself. But they all have the Fly to beat, having beat the 2 Irish threats to his crown twice already! He is reportedly to be in great form he went right out to 13/2 after his 1st run which i snapped up with both hands but after his 2nd run that soon disappeared and is shortening all the time. MTOY beat the New One in the xmas hurdle and imo will hold the form with him if he can prove himself on the course as he looked to struggle to get up the hill and may snap if comes down to a battle going over the last. The New One has a turn of foot to be very worried, about which was the case when beating Mullins banker of the festival Pont Alexandre in the Neptune last year about but feel his jumping may let him down and his turn of foot against this lot will not get him out of trouble. Our Conor very impressive himself when winning the triumph and his trainer went on record this week wishing the festival was this week as he is in such great shape- but has he come in to great shaped 10 days to early, but anyway he will look to build on that run and to be fair to him he has improved with each run this yr when losing to The Fly but does he have the fight to up against any of the field in a real battle and his experience may let him down. Jezki, the weakest contender but has some talent but will not win. Annie Power still a huge question mark on where she is going here of the World Hurdle and its anyones guess, will be interesting to see her up against her stable mate but will have to wait and see Melodic Rendezvous has place claims if the ground comes up the way he wants likewise with Ptit Zig but has improve another 20lbs or so to win but They all have the Fly to beat and will not beat him.

ROTO: It would be fantastic if Hurricane Fly could win his 3rd Champion Hurdle at the age of 10 and if this was to be run at Leopardstown I definitely think he would be already home and hosed. However, Cheltenham certainly isn’t his best track and he certainly is not an unbeatable horse for all he been very impressive this season. Joining him towards the head of the market is The New One and I just don’t think he’s as good as everyone is making him out to be (sorry Stick!). Dessie Hughes came out with a brilliant comment in a preview night that Champion Hurdle winners just don’t make mistakes and that has to be a huge negative going into the contest for the Twiston-Davies charge as he certainly wouldn’t be the best jumper in the field. I still don’t think any of his form is up to Champion Hurdle standard and I’d personally be quite surprised if he wins. I’ll certainly hold my hands up if he does and applaud the horse but I definitely won’t be backing him. My Tent Or Yours is a horse I’ve never warmed to and I don’t think he’ll win and I actually think Jezki will probably finish ahead of him in the contest. The horse I’m backing, and making use of Ladbrokes offer of money back as a free bet if Hurricane Fly is 1st or 2nd, is Dessie Hughes’ 5 year old Our Conor 4/1. Although beaten by HF twice already this season, he showed a drastic improvement on his 2nd hurdling start outside of his novice season and although I actually think he needs to make up more lengths than the bare form with Hurricane Fly on their last run (HF was well in command at the finish) I think he can do so for a number of reasons. Firstly, Dessie Hughes will have him utterly spot on for the first time this season at Cheltenham and you only have to look back Hardy Eustace, who was beaten all 4 prior starts the season he won his first Champion Hurdle, to see how good Dessie is at peaking his horses on the day. Secondly, I think Cheltenham is a big leveller for Our Conor against Hurricane Fly and I think the course alone would give him every chance of overturning the Irish Champion Hurdle form. Finally, I hope Our Conor is ridden differently from a tactics point of view as well. In the Irish CH, Our Conor came there swinging at the last and he was completely out-battled by the tenacious champion who was not for passing. I would hope that they send Our Conor to the front sooner and have Hurricane Fly try to come from behind as if HF hits the front it will be incredibly hard to pass him. Although I couldn’t discourage anyone from backing the current Champion, who still has an outstanding chance of winning, with the race sure to be run in order to get him beat I think Our Conor may come out on top and beat the great Dual Champion Hurdler into 2nd.

 

NB: The race of the festival, and if Annie Power turns up, it will be the race of the decade. I really like the new challengers to the crown here, with The New One and Our Connor both rating highly in my book. I think Hurricane Fly will be vulnerable against this field, despite being ultra impressive in Ireland this season, and I think My Tent Or Yours is vulnerable at Cheltenham, especially if they go at a good clip. Annie Power would be a major player with the mares allowance, whilst Un De Sceaux is intriguing as he has been very impressive to date. The New One for me.

STICK: The best field assembled for many a year in my opinion and lets hope we get a real thriller. I am of course on THE NEW ONE as I have been ever since I first saw him. My only fear is the jockey getting it wrong. HURRICANE FLY and MY TENT OR YOURS are fantastic adversaries and my information is that OUR CONOR has not been fully wound up so far this season with this in mind. A race to savour.


NEPTUNE NOVICES HURDLE

TC: FAUGHEEN is a potential monster but his absence for a while concerns me for a 3/1 (and less) fav. He is the talk horse and looks to have an incredible engine. Perhaps this could be like Simonsig all over again. The big Irish rival, Apache Stronghold, is out so there isn't a depth of opposition. Red Sherlock narrowly seeing off the Mullins 2nd string, Rathvinden, hardly inspires confidence in him either.

Having said that, Pipe has a a beautiful horse as his second string in UN TEMPS POUR TOUT and despite disappointing against the experienced Zamdy Man at Haydock (heavy), he looked a horse with a real future when winning head in chest at Ascot. He is without doubt the value bet- I'm just interested to see who rides him. I cannot see a JP McManus horse in this so with AP McCoy looking for a ride, this big powerhouse could be the right one for him, with Barry G booked for Royal Boy.

EDIT: UN TEMPS POUR TOUT is lame and unlikely to run. LIEUTENANT COLONEL it is! Longer trip and a good pace will be the making of him because if he settles, he certainly will stay!


OD: On paper this looks like it is Faugheen’s to lose with Red Sherlock pushing him closest. Looking for a bit of value further down the market, Ballyalton looked like this trip would really suit when outbattling Garde La Victoire up the hill at Cheltenham in December over 17F. He got stuck in the mud behind Aubusson subsequently but better ground here can see him run well at a nice price (currently 20/1 available).

MOG: We have one of the big talking horses of the last few years in the shape of Faugheen, hopefully turning up for his first serious test. This horse has oozed class in his light career so far and will be considered a banker for many. Like others, one of my concerns is his jumping and how it has not really improved in 3 starts, but he might just be that good that it doesnt matter. He has never been off the bridle in his life so it will be interesting to see whats left if he has to be asked the question. Red Sherlock is a bit of a character but he has class, and showed last time he has the heart for a fight as well, im not conviced he is top class though and might need soft ground to have any chance of winning. Royal Boy has surprised me, his form from last season looks good now and he was able to win a grade 1 over 2 miles beating a horse who could go close in the Supreme. He has the class to travel very well in this and finds plenty for pressure, I think he is great value at 8/1 and if Faugheen is not Pegasus then this is the horse who will have him up the hill. Lieutenant Colonel could outrun his odds

BB: Faugheen - i have all the decent prices all the way down to 5/1 where i thought he got a bot short for my liking. Massive engine. Possibly a unsafe jumper is the only draw back. It's not swayed me. The Tullow Tank's withdrawal has hardened my faith in him. I think he wins with a bit in hand. Red Sherlock is a good horse but I'm not taking a Pipe horse to win a grade one under any circumstances. if it's soft Deputy Dan has a place shout at 16/1 and I don't know what they are doing with Sure Reef but he also has a shout at 20/1 if he runs.

WF: one of the many novice hurdle race that Willie Mullins has the majority of the top 5 in the betting and another race that looks to between Pipe and Mullins. David Pipe has said to have his best novice hurdlers this year and has Red Sherlock who is a fast horse, has course form– reminds me a bit of The New one this time last yr. The favourite Faugheen lightly raced this season 4 races in a space of 2 months and haven’t been seen since but still not 100% sure in which race he will go for, but whatever race he goes for, he has to be feared Also Royal Boy need a mention a good winner of the Tolworth beating a couple of the Supreme Runners. But will surely have to improve to beat Faugheen and Red Sherlock.

ROTO: Much like last year’s beaten favourite Pont Alexandre, Faugheen looks a potential superstar and despite perhaps committing the same sin twice I think he’s the real deal. Incredibly impressive all 5 career starts, (4 Under Rules) Faugheen is clearly a horse with tremendous potential and I think he could take a serious amount of beating in this. David Pipe’s fellow unbeaten Red Sherlock has done nothing wrong in his 6 career starts but I’m not sure he’s up to the same standard as Faugheen. Furthermore, the Willie Mullins’ stable should have a good line through him with stablemate Rathvinden (who also runs here) and I think the market in the next week could be telling.


NB: Difficult to state which horses are going to run, but this season this looks like a very interesting race with Faugheen, Red Sherlock and Royal Boy leading the market. I liked the way Royal Boy beat Josses Hill in the Tolworth and the step up in trip should suit him perfectly. Faugheen looks the prime hope of Ireland and I was impressed by his last run but his jumping wasn't impressive and he could come unstuck if he doesn't jump fluently. Red Sherlock keeps a bit to himself, and yet he is 6 from 6 in rules racing, and I think he could well make that the perfect 7. Tricky race until final declarations.

JL: For the last few years the Irish have had the big talking horse in this race and this year is no different. Faugheen has followed those that have come before him as the next Pegasus from across the water, but having watched his races I’d have my doubts and at the prices I’d be taking him on.
I liked Red Sherlock’s performance in beating Rathvinden, last time out, but the more I look at it the more it looks like a bit of a stayers performance, in desperate ground. If someone more in the know than me about these things could convince me he’d improve for better ground I’d be very interested in him. Rathvinden ran a decent enough race, and could well be a good each way shout if better ground improves him. Too many in the betting at the moment could come out and I’ve not had a bet yet, but I’d be leaning towards ROYAL BOY at a decent enough price, and Barry Geraghty seems confident from some of the preview nights I’ve seen / read about.

STICK: Another novice with a Mullins trained favourite and a worthy one at that. FAUGHEEN has been impressive in every run so far and you really do have to take note of those Punchestown bumpers but I think RED SHERLOCK and ROYAL BOY will give him his first real test. RED SHERLOCK saw off Rathvinden in very deep ground at Cheltenham in January and like FAUGHEEN is unbeaten. ROYAL BOY cannot boast to being unbeaten but defeats to Melodic Rendezvous still read pretty well, he wont be far away.

 

Queen Mother Champion Chase

TC: A race that has become seemingly wide open after the sad defection of our superstar- Sprinter Sacre. CAPTAIN CONAN went like a powerhouse going to the last two in the Jewson last year, and then went like a Lighthouse in the final furlong. Back to 2m, on a stiff track, he must have an outstanding chance.

OD: Without Sprinter Sacre the race ought to be Sire De Grugy’s to lose BUT my concern is that he has been to Prestbury Park twice and been beaten on both occasions (by Captain Conan and Kid Cassidy, who are both entered here). This may well end up a no-bet race for me as I have question marks against many of the field. At this stage I’d say possibly a small sentimental e/w on Sizing Europe would be my play.

MOG: Disappointing that the Champ Sprinter Sacre is not here but it does make the race a bit more attractive from a betting perspective. Sire De Grugy has been excellent this season and has proven himself to be the dominant 2 miler outside of Sprinter Sacre, his performance at Ascot last time was incredible as Hidden Cyclone is no mug. That said, I just cant get away from his trainer saying this is not a Cheltenham horse, I dont think its a left handed issue, I think he just doesn’t like the track. He deserves to be favourite on form but I don’t think he will win so its easy for me to take him on. Arvika Ligeonniere showed his dislike for the track in the Arkle last year I see no reason why anything will change here, hes best at the bully going right handed and I cant have him. The race is pretty shallow and that’s why I think Captain Conan is one of the bets of the meeting at 7/1, hes a class horse and I think this is his trip. He wasn’t right when Sire De Grugy beat him at Sandown earlier in the season but is reportedly back in top form. He didn’t get home in the Jewson last year after walking past the eventual winner Beneficent, who ought to run in the Ryanair, before emptying after the last and the drop back to 2 miles in this will be ideal.

BB: Woeful race this year. No bet. I want to get Sire De Grugy beat but he's 2/1 isn and to be fair to the horse and connections that feels right. Based on everything we've seen this year why shouldn't he be a clear fav to win this race? Kid Cassidy is 8/1 in a place. That pretty much sums up this farce.

WF: To start off with what a shame Sprinter Sacre will not be turning up but this does blow the race wide open. Paul Nicholls- please send Al Ferof in to this- will fly round here at this distance. I have got him @ 7/1 NRNB. Although Hinterland looks more likely to run in this One I do like is Captain Conan has bit to find on his last appearance with SDG but apparently wasn’t 100% that day and didn’t jump aswell as he can. The favourite Sire Du Grugy is a worthy favourite but still has questions marks over him going left handed and racing at this track. Has been beaten only the 3 times over fences and the last was to Kid Cassidy- yes he was giving a shed loads of weight to him but backers still have that in the back of their mind. Willie Mullins has always had a very high view of Arvika Ligeonniere who like the favourite has questions about him going left handed as he can jump out the right and if he does that it will be a very long race for Ruby on board of him. Sizing Europe a great horse himself with reports at home he has not lost at it. Was tried up in trip but didn’t stay now back to 2m @ Cheltenham he is right in his comfort zone and cant be ruled out . But i fancy Captain Conan to reverse the form with the favourite if Al Ferof doesn’t run in this

ROTO: Again, this looks an awful renewal. For all he looks the best horse in the race, I couldn’t back Sire De Grugy with serious doubts about his ability to handle the track at Prestbury Park but even still he may prove too good for this lot. Captain Conan looks very short at 5/1, Arvika Ligeonniere has to be the worst bet of the meeting at 6/1 as he isn’t the same horse going left handed. Baily Green’s indifferent form this year shouldn’t really be criticised as Mouse Morris has all his Cheltenham runners in brilliant form and his 2nd behind Simonsig last year would surely give him every chance at 8/1. I’ll probably back two at bigger prices in this race and the first will be 2011 winner Sizing Europe. Now a 12 year old, this stalwart from the Henry De Bromhead yard has been disappointing on his last two runs this year when beaten over 3 miles at Down Royal (doesn’t stay) and Andrew Lynch was probably way too aggressive from the front at Leopardstown last time. Although you’ve got to forgive him those efforts, he’s won 3 times at the Cheltenham Festival in his career and the runner up in this race the last 2 years only defeats last season came at the hands of Sprinter Sacre as an 11 year old and I think he’s definitely worth a bet at 14/1 in this distinctly average looking field. The other I like at a price is Module 16/1 and for all he’s probably better over further he’s an improving horse with decent form to his name and I think he’d definitely have an outside chance.

NB:
All about the horse that isn't running, Sprinter Sacre isn't going to make the festival and that is a sad loss, and he leaves the way open for a new winner to the race. Sire De Grugy has the best form this season, but he is a horse who hasn't won up the hill and his run in the Shloer Chase isn't particularly appealing. I would love Al Ferof to run, he is a perfect horse for this race and he is a Supreme Winner after all!! I want to be against Sire De Grugy, but lets see who turns up.

JL: The defection of Sprinter Sacre leaves Sire De Grugy as clear favourite at 9/4 currently, and he is entitled to be at the top of market having won numerous graded races. The only defeat coming when he was giving weight away to the lunatic Kid Cassidy. Is he as good left-handed? Does he just not like Cheltenham? There are enough doubts at the price, and I won’t be backing him.
Captain Conan has apparently been popular with the bookies, but I think he needs further than this, and Arvika Ligeonniere can’t go left handed can he? If Ruby can get him settled and going half straight over his fences I’d be interested.
I’ve backed SIZING EUROPE e/w at 16s this week, and would be hopeful of a good run. He’s run over distances that are stretching him, on terrible ground this season, and for a horse that finished 2nd to Sprinter Sacre twice last season, one of those by only 4 or 5 lengths he is massively overpriced. A reproduction of either run in defeat to Sprinter would see him in the places at least.
Hinterland is another who is interesting, been going well this season, has been freshened up for this, and is another who will run well at a price.

STICK: It is a shame for SIRE DE GRUGY that he will be known as the horse that won because Sprinter Sacre was not there but I think we are missing out on a real spectacle. SIZING EUROPE cost me one of my biggest Cheltenham punts ever but I forgave him and hope he runs a cracker in what is surely his swansong.

 

RSA CHASE​

TC: Don Cossack at double figure prices is unbelievable. He has ben brought along really nicely this season, has learnt from some close battles, but has the class and cruising speed that will translate into a seasons-best performance on much nicer ground at Cheltenham. A 3m trip on nice spring ground could be the making of him.

OD: I think this goes to Ireland this year and the one I like is Carlingford Lough who would have made things interesting with Ballycasey last time out when unlucky to clip the wing of the fence and unseat AP. He may not be quite the best horse in the race but I just have a feeling that he could be the one who puts it all together best on the day.

MOG: Maybe the most wide open Grade 1 of the meeting, Ballycasey is the favourite and looks classy but he does not look an RSA horse to me and I have to take him on. Smad Place is a bit of a nearly horse for me, Corrin Wood looks pretty solid but he doesn’t excite me, I love Morning Assembly but I was disappointed with his last run and I cant have the horse who beat him that day either. I did like the look of Le Bec but not mad keen on Lavelle and he wouldn’t want it too soft. I am going for what I think surprisingly, is a bit of a forgotten horse, in the shape of Don Cossack. He looked impressive early in the season, jumping for fun and achieved a high level of form in the process. The Moriarty is a great trial for this and many have been beaten in it before going on to win this, lets not forget Don Cossack was punted off the boards into evens fav for it and has always been highly regarded. There was only 3 runners and Ruby dictated things beautifully from the front on a horse that was ideally suited to do so. Don Cossack showed plenty of class in the race but just got done for speed at the end. He looks a potential Gold Cup horse and I cant believe he is 16/1 with numerous inferior class horses ahead of him in the betting, I think he is the one to beat.

BB: I've taken some of the 5/1 for Ballycasey. I loved his run LTO. He's held in the highest regard. He's got the pace and engine. I think the Irish horses are marginally better than the English group and I think Ballycasey is the best of the Irish. I don't think there's a superstar in this race and I worry about Mullins chasers poor jumping. If I start looking at the bigger prices I keep thinking any one of them could produce something we've not seen before up that hill and so I just don't want to risk a bet apart from the one already struck.

WF: A wide open race going 5/1 to the field ; One I haven’t really looked at and probably wont till the day- but Morning Assembly looks to hold the form and looks a good e/w bet @ 10/1

ROTO: Despite jumping a little right handed at times, I have been incredibly impressed with Corrin Wood 9/1 over fences to date and I think he could take quite a bit of beating in what looks a good renewal of the RSA. In 3 unbeaten chasing starts for Donald McCain, this 7 year old has shown he has great heart in a battle and I think the form of his last start when beating the previously unbeaten chaser Black Thunder reads very well and I think he’s a superb each way bet at 9/1. Current market leader Ballycasey has certainly done nothing wrong in winning both his starts over fences to date but a fall when schooling at Leopardstown recently must temper enthusiasm and a big negative against him is that the last 10 winners of this had all had at least 3 starts over fences to date. I haven’t really warmed to Smad Place in general and I don’t think his chasing form stacks up to much at all frankly and I see no reason for Morning Assembly to turn around the form with Carlingford Lough, (who also looks a decent price at 9/1) with the latter bringing tremendous experience with a massive 13 runs over fences to date and proven ability to win on in a big field as shown when winning the Galway Plate (John Kiely did a brilliant job getting him into that off a mark of 133). Don Cossack also looks overpriced at 14/1 but I think Corrin Wood will take a fair bit of beating in this and I’m quite sweet on his chances.


NB: Competitive race where we see Ballycasey as a shortish favourite, and whilst I backed him last time out and he jumped well, he was given a peach of a ride and I wouldn't be certain of him repeating the form over Carlingford Lough and Don Cossack. I think his price is all wrong. We have lots of really impressive jumpers in this race, Corrin Wood being one of them, and he could easily be good enough to win an attritional RSA chase. However its two at longer prices that I like and they met last time out at Ascot, O'Faolains Boy beat Many Clouds that day and both showed brilliant jumping skills and good staying powers. The former picked off Many Clouds up the straight but that was because the race was run at a brutal pace, and at an honest pace Many Clouds could reverse the form. Both are double digit odds and could run big races. Annacotty should also run well.

JL: This looks a good race this year, and Ballycasey was quite popular following his win in his last race beating two good horses in Carlingford Lough and Don Cossack, but won’t be quite good enough I don’t think. Don Cossack was beaten fair and square and is held on that form, but Carlingford Lough didn’t get chance to see out his race due to an unlucky fall where AP McCoy caught his foot in the wing of a fence before losing his iron and unseating.
Morning Assembly has impressed me on a few occasions but I think he benefits from having Ruby Walsh as his partner, and although I quite like Davy Russell, he’s no RW, and that puts me off slightly. I think the rest are too slow, O’Faolains boy and Many Clouds would need to set off now and Feltham winners have a shocking record in this so that rules out Annacotty. CARLINGFORD LOUGH the each way bet of the Festival for me.

STICK: A nicely open looking race with BALLYCASEY a worthy favourite but I have long been a fan of MANY CLOUDS and have always that he was going to be a top class chaser and improve with age. Now he has to step up to the plate but I think he is ready. Donald McCains CORRIN WOOD will not be far away either.

 

Fred Winter-

WF: If he can settle and is a big if- Goodwood Mirage looks a huge price 16/1 a very talented horse on the flat- which the plan over hurdles hasn’t really gone to plan- was looking to go the triumph route but isn’t really good enough so this is more his level he looked better on his last race against some talented types and if he can run nr to his flat rating could make a mockery of this mark

CHAMPION BUMPER
WF: Mullins has the top 3 in the betting and the favourite black Hercules looks the best of them very impressive in his last race. Very interesting to see Golantilla back in the bumper for the 2nd yr running. He was obviously meant to win last year but all didn’t go to plan so hoping to make up for it this year. Sayin that surley it didn’t go to plan a few weeks ago when second to Killultagh Vic but fancy him to reverse the form wit h him. But like many of the races it looks a battle of the Mullins runners with Black Hercules going to take all the beating.

 

Cheers toppy for doing this- cant wait to read the rest- Great Stuff Lads

 

Well done

very good read

stay frosty

 

Well done boys and TC/Oddy in particular for a job well done.


If I could add a couple of interesting runners into my mix it would be On His Own in the Gold Cup and that darkest of dark dark horses, my namesake, the most disappointing horse I have ever had the misfortune to follow (who can forget his hurdle performances in Ireland?) Boston Bob in the Ryanair.

The bookies are shouting 40/1 On His Own and 14/1 for BB. They'll do for me.

 

What Mullins horse aren't you backing Bob? Good write up's lad's well done for taking the time out to do them and hopefully many winners will come from the selections

 

Great work lads. Proud to be associated with this forum.