Top 4 Run ins.

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someone will run in.

 

Not a good result at the weekend, but win our game in hand and beat Spurs when they visit (we have a good record against them) and we're in fourth again.

May or may not happen but it's not over yet. Another case of everything changes every week.

 

yeah, the least worst side will fall over the line.

same as the relegation battle.

theres 2 sides fighting up top and the rest are dross. Even there city are just not right and well off their prior levels.

The "competitive" league and oh this is great was thrown up again during out game.

the reality was a terribly poor Bournemouth side who've thrown in goals all over the league out muscled a weak LFC side. nothing more. side sup and down the league are winning games off each other as the whole lot are showing quite poor quality and inconsistency.

 

BUMP for the interesting thread.

at the time of writing this thread

the table was


Pos Team P W D L GF GA W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 26 10 2 1 34 16 10 1 2 25 9 34 63
2 Manchester City 26 11 1 1 43 13 7 3 3 23 12 41 58
3 Manchester United 24 9 2 1 24 8 6 2 4 17 20 13 49
4 Tottenham Hotspur 26 9 0 4 26 15 5 3 5 20 21 10 45
5 Newcastle United 24 6 5 1 19 8 4 6 2 16 9 18 41
6 Liverpool 24 8 3 1 27 9 3 3 6 13 19 12 39

over the past 11 games man utd have picked up 17 points. That's utter **** isn't it. I have posted in the OP the teams chasing 4th as utd should have had third sewn up with a large lead and they now look like getting themselves 4th

As we stand now its a simple equation

Newcastle must win 2 from 3 to get to 72
Man utd must win 2 from 3 to get to 72
Liverpool max is 71
brightons max is 70.


Scenarios for LFC:

Newcastle win 1, and draw 2. current gd = +32 so could be say +36. LFC would need to win 2 with +9 GD.
Newcastle win 1, draw 1, lose 1. GD won't matter. LFC must win 2 to finish 1 point above them.
Utd win 1 and draw 2. GD for utd is vastly inferior so LFC winning 2 gets 4th on GD.
Utd win 1, draw 1 lose 1. Again lfc win 2.

Scenarios for brighton
Newcastle win 1 and lose 2 OR man utd win 1 and lose 2 (1 v brighton) AND LFC win 1 draw 1, brighton win 4 games finish 1 point clear in 4th.
Newcastle Win 1 and lose 2 OR man utd win 1, draw 1 and lose 1 AND LFC win 1 and draw 1, Brighton win 4 games and finish 1 point clear in 4th

Its theoretically possible for any of the 4 sides to finish 6th or 3rd still.

The likely hoods is kind if bizarre currently given newcastle have the vastly superior GD but the brighton game might be skewing the odds.

Man utd 89.6%
Newcastle 85.6%
Liverpool 24%
Brighton 1%

 

GAMES TO GO:
NEWCASTLE.
Thursday: Brighton (home)
Sunday :Leicester (home)
May 28 Chelsea (away)

MANCHESTER UNITED:
Saturday: Bournemouth (away)
May 25 Chelsea (home)
May 28: Fulham (away)

LIVERPOOL:
Saturday : Aston Villa (home)
May 28 Southampton (away)

BRIGHTON.
Thursday: Newcastle (away)
Sunday: Southampton (home)
May 24 Manchester city (home)
May 28 Aston Villa (away)

 

They could easily drop points against any of those teams. Brighton the most likely. Really hope Brighton do us and themselves a favour here.

Leicester, keep expecting a pulse or a shudder out of them to stagger a bit back to life. Chelsea has the manpower, just not clicking... Either team has it in them to be dangerous.

Chelsea a potentially stumbling block as mentioned before. I could see United dropping points against one of these teams... But would have to be full on Spursy to drop twice.

Villa is thr hard one. Sure don't want to disrespect Soton, but being realistic,.it would have to be a very bad day at the office to drop points there. Beat Villa and we watch the table to see if Newcastle or Mancs drop points.

They can pee in Newcastle's teapot but really I don't see them in the fight anymore for top four. They've got the most difficult run-in.




So my conclusion: Newcastle the most likely for us to overtake, but odds are against it.

Brighton essentially out of this and a real wild card... But they could play an important part for us and Newcastle.

 

What about the other 3 finishing on 70 points and LFC on 71

 

if man utd only take 4 points from final 3 games then they will have taken only 24 points from 15 games start where we absolutely trounced them 7-0

in those 15 games they will have lost to us, newcastle, brighton, west ham and one other TBD. They will have drawn with spurs and southampton and one other tbd

The only top half games with will have won are villa and brentford.

Since march 1st they have been not so hot at all.