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Discussion in 'Tottenham Hotspur' started by remembercolinlee, Feb 1, 2017.
Rose has HG value, which is worth two Mars bars and a packet of Frazzles
Lloris - £10m
KWP - £6m
CCV - £3m
Foyth - £8m
Dier - £15m
Rose - £5m
Winks - £30m
Alli - £45m
Lucas - £25m
Lamela - £10m
Won't include Aurier because for as stupid as he can be we still need two RBs at Spurs and selling him means we'd have none.
£167m to go along with probably an £80m-£100m budget. It's not happening of course, our club (whether that be board, manager, fans) still thinks players like Lloris, Alderweireld, Winks and Alli are key assets despite the fact they've played their part as to why we've severely regressed since 2017 and will continue to do so until the 'big boy' decisions are made. Liverpool had the bollocks to sell Coutinho and despite the offer being more than generous, they sold a player who was regarded as their best player at the time because they knew the funds would help improve the team, we need to do similar with some of our so-called assets, it just unfortunately won't happen.
At least we will be able to see out a 1-0 lead in the 80th minute as he can take 10 mins over a goal kick.
Guaranteed he'd get booked the first time he tried that if he played for us
...and VAR would then upgrade it to a red.
Well you've said it yourself DH. Chances of us shifting that lot are minimal to none. Maureen has said multiple times he doesn't want an overhaul and I agree with him. It almost killed us in the wake of Bale's departure and quantity simply cannot replace quality (as evidenced by the fact that we have SEVEN senior CMs on our books yet have the ****test central midfield in the PL). Looking at your 'for sale' list, we can safely scratch off the following unless an insanely good offer comes in for them (not happening):
Lamela - Maureen is clearly a huge fan.
Toby - Just signed a new contract so our asking price is likely to be higher than the release clause he had in the summer. You know, the one not a club on planet earth came close to meeting.
Alli - Maureen is clearly a huge fan and will want to see him in the same team as Kane. Although he remains top of my 'asset sale' list.
Dier - Basically Maureen's son. He has even found him a new position to play in and has adjusted our back line to a 3 in order to keep playing him.
Winks - Highly unlikely
Lucas - Highly unlikely
So we're left with KWP, CCV, Rose and possibly Foyth. Plus the hoard of players out on loan who aren't all that young anymore. So that's around £25m income. So even by my most modest estimates of gross outlay, we're looking at a net spend of £90m. Not happening bud.
I'm calling this now, let's see how close I get to the truth:
We'll sell no more than 4 senior players and buy no more than 3. Those 3 will be:
DM - First choice (£40m)
FB - First choice (£40m)
ST - Back up (£20m)
Unless we can pull off more Gedson loan-to-buy options, that's my gut feeling. I'd be delighted to eat a slice of pie come August.
Thing is though DH our owners , who are in it for money like yours , were prepared to pay pretty much whatever it took to get the players (Allinson & VVD) when Klopp said "i must have him" . The obvious question are ENIC prepared to do that and tbh after your last 2 windows i'm not sure i'd have faith in the transfer targets either since only Lo Celso has been anything approaching success* .
*Bergwijn may but too little game time to really make a judgement imo .
I agree it won't happen but it's why we'll likely have another **** season next year and that'll continue until we shift about 70% of this squad. It's stale, declined and lacking quality. No manager will get anything out of it.
An overhaul won't kill us though, we're dead already. Pointless trying to compare the Bale 7 to the situation we're currently in. We sold 1 world class player and replaced him with 7 of nowhere near the quality, Eriksen was the only one who reached a genuine top level. Right now, we'd be selling **** to try and sign quality. Worst case is we sell **** and replace it with ****.
We're ****ed though, we won't get what we need, we'll probably sack the manager around Christmas because our squad will be doing poorly and it'll just be a repeat cycle until we actually show some bollocks in the transfer market, both with ins and outs.
I agree and that's our problem. We'll penny pinch whilst also consider those we should sell as invaluable. Levy was fapping himself silly in the recent meeting with the supporters group because Harry Winks captained the team for a game, if our chairman is championing a dogshit player captaining our football club I've got no hope getting what I feel we need.
The recent additions have actually been promising other than Sessegnon who's been dreadful. Though typically Bergwijn's now out for the season and for some dumb reason Jose is barely playing Gedson who's been better than most of the players we keep persisting with. Lo Celso looks brilliant and Ndombele can be too if the fatty loses some weight. Problem is we left making good signings far too late, we've allowed the majority of the squad to go so stale and decline that even with promising signings it still weren't enough in the long haul. We're constantly playing catch up now because of our reluctance to strengthen in previous seasons.
Lloris, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Rose, Davies, Aurier, Dier, Winks, Lucas, Lamela and Alli would all struggle to make the XIs/ squads of our top four rivals. Three years ago we had a side that was probably close to doing something special as all we were missing was just a bit of depth as we had the quality in the first XI but didn't have anything to back it up, stark contrast to where we are now as we don't even have a quality first XI any more let alone depth, all down to neglect. Shambles really, we missed our window of opportunity to be a genuine top side.
Your biggest problem imo is the team as an entity has gone and you just have 11 individuals playing as Tottenham Hotspur . Better players will help but regaining an identity / ethos would be even more beneficial if for no other reason until a decision is made on the way forward for the team you are just buying players rather than team components so to speak .
The issue those who have a route one approach to assigning blame of any and all problems the club has isn't that we have failed to sign players, in fact it's quite the opposite - it's that we've failed to move on players in the last couple of years...other than a sizable chunk of our youth team, anyway
Look at the summer of 2015 as the perfect example: we moved on Soldado, Paulinho, Capoue, Stambouli, Chiriches, Holtby and Adebayor which not only brought in cash that was spent on Son and Toby but also freed up space for Trippier and Wimmer
Similarly, look at the summer of 2018: Walker getting tapped up was a blow but we were able to move on Fazio, Wimmer and N'Jie that allowed for us to buy and accommodate Sanchez, Foyth and Llorente while also beating a host of other clubs to a highly-rated PSG right back named Serge Aurier
This is where the summer of 2019 went horribly wrong for us: the only players who left were academy prospects such as Bennetts, Maduke and Griffiths, and considering we started a rebuild the previous summer with Sanchez, Foyth and Aurier being brought in what we absolutely needed to do was address midfield next - but we couldn't, because Dembele and janssen couldn't be sold due to injury at the worst times (Dembele for the Chinese window, Janssen until October) the question has to be asked why we weren't moving on Wanyama, Nkoudou or Vorm that summer as that was three non-HG spots our squad needed opened up and yet there was little to no attempt to do so, and frankly we should have been moving on Danny Rose by that point as well
This ultimately undermined the summer of 2020: yes we were able to address the midfield issue with the signings of Ndombele and Lo Celso, but that was a year late and we should have been focusing elsewhere - and going into the summer assuming we'd make anything between £60-80m from selling Eriksen and Alderweireld was undermined by a lack of interest in the latter and nobody matching the release clause for the former, and this was further exacerbated by Rose and Wanyama continuing to dig their heels in
And try as people might, the route one approach of blaming Levy for everything simply doesn't work for this: Rose and Wanyama torpedoed summer moves all on their own over wages, Dembele missed out on a move due to getting crocked during the World Cup and the Chinese window closing much earlier than anyone else's, and Janssen had a broken foot so we were stuck with him for a whole season after that - yet on the other hand, we should've sold GKN a year earlier than we actually did because, while that would have only freed up one non-HG spot, that would have also allowed us to actually do something with that spot
Don't be daft. Just trying to point out the difference between the accounting profit and loss on transfer fees. Important to understand that if you support a club that abides by the FFP regulations.....
We are a rabble. Mourinho can't help that we don't have a back-up striker.
However, there's no shape to us and it looks like the tactics for each individual game, were decided in the time it took the players to walk from the dressing room onto the pitch. A Puki-less Norwich apart, we go out onto the pitch and are rotten in the first half of games. We get taken apart and then it's all down to trying to pull it around in the second half.
To be fair to the players, in the second half of games, the effort is there to try and make amends for what went before. So, the heart is there but whoever is manager next season needs to sort this **** out.
Pick a system that we can make work (4-3-3). Buy players to improve our weakest areas and work at it. What's going on now is a nonsense.
You heard Levy. 'Spending money doesn't guarantee success'. He believes it with every fiber of his being, and will likely use the failures of NDombele and Sess compared to the relative success of Tanganga to further reinforce his belief. Whilst he is right: spending does not guarantee success, it sure as hell makes it more likely. And by contrast, not spending money makes failure more likely.
All things considered, and as positive as I and you and many others were at the end of the summer window, with the gift of hindsight it has to be regarded as a near-total failure. We already knew not enough was done to move players on, but at least saw the 3 incomings and thought 'they'll fit straight in and improve us as the season develops'. Well, we now know that was a false hope. 1 out of 3 is an abysmal ratio, especially considering we scouted the 2 failures for upwards of 2 whole years. These are the margins of error a club with a decaying squad and limited resources cannot afford. And in all likelihood all that will happen is Levy will say 'you see? I told you. This is what I've been telling you for decades. You can spend £55m on a horse but you cannot make it drink.' And then he'll hide behind the fact that we've had a plague of injuries and bottom line is - the investment this summer will be underwhelming. As I said above, I'm calling it now. Don't expect more than 3-4 incomings and of those, I reckon only 2 will be for the first team. Wouldn't be remotely surprised if our line up next season is this:
NEW RB Dave Toby Davies
NEW DM Lo Celso
Son Alli Bergwijn
but thats my point. Why not go the whole hog and that in the scenario of selling sissoko or lamela for any money, spurs will be making an accounting profit rather than say you will not be making an accounting loss.
Most likely a profit on Lamela and break even on Sissoko I think. But the cash raised is the most important thing as it is cash that will be subject to covenants on the stadium loans. Profit only matters over a three year period.
Whether you like it or not, one out of three successes is par for the course....for everyone, not just us (actually probably more like 2 in 5). All teams have runs where they do better. That is what Levy is getting at. If you spend twice as much money you do get better players on average but to call this 'investment' is hiding the risks. All you can do is spend your revenue as wisely as possible and keep your fingers crossed. Borrowing money to spend more is foolish with such risks, unless you can go the Man City route which is now outlawed.
I disagree. Here is Liverpool's transfer history over the past 3 years:
Mane - SUCCESS
Wijnaldum - SUCCESS
Karius - FLOP
Klavan - FLOP
VVD - SUCCESS
Chamberlain - SUCCESS
Salah - SUCCESS
Robertson - SUCCESS
Alisson - SUCCESS
Keita - FLOP
Fabinho - SUCCESS
Shaqiri - FLOP
8 successes, 4 flops. And 2 of the flops barely cost anything.
To much financial clout to compare to us? Wage ceiling to high? Ok then, here is Wolves over the past 3 years:
Ruben Neves - SUCCESS
Miranda - FLOP
Jonny - SUCCESS
Traore - SUCCESS
Rui Patricio - SUCCESS
Jota - SUCCESS
Boly - SUCCESS
Afobe - SUCCESS
Moutinho - SUCCESS
Jimenez - SUCCESS
Podence - FLOP
Neto - SUCCESS
Cutrone - FLOP
Dendoncker - SUCCESS
11 successes, 3 flops. And 1 of them barely cost anything.
We need to break out of this mindset of 'it just can't be done'. It's a good thing Leicester didn't believe that in 2016, isn't it? Oh, talking of Leicester, here's their 3 year transfer history:
Iheanacho - SUCCESS
Adrien Silva - FLOP
Iborra - FLOP
Maguire - SUCCESS
Maddison - SUCCESS
Pereira - SUCCESS
Soyonucu - SUCCESS
Benkovic - FLOP
Ghezzal - FLOP
Ward - SUCCESS
Evans - SUCCESS
Tielemans - SUCCESS
Perez - FLOP (?)
Praet - SUCCESS
Justin - SUCCESS
10 successes, 5 flops. So please, stop believing it isn't possible. With the right forward planning, strategy and people on the ground to implement it, it is possible.
It’s interesting, reading that through. Wolves are different to Leicester and Liverpool but what strikes me about the latter two is that both sold big players in order to finance their activity - Liverpool with Coutinho and Leicester with Kante and Drinkwater and more recently Maguire. We sold Walker, sure, but apart from that...Eriksen left at a stage where we couldn’t get a good fee. That’s about it.
I think some of our scouting has been sub-par, no doubt, but a failure to move players on (either wantaways in their prime to finance moves, or the likes of Wanyama who were just finished) has also seriously impacted us in terms of funding and the composition of the squad. It’s a two-way street after all.
It is a two-way street. Here's the catch-22 we've gotten ourselves stuck in over the past 5-6 years:
We can't afford to shell out on top drawer players.
We also (generally speaking) refuse to allow key players to leave mid-contract, especially to rivals (Walker being the exception that proves the rule).
Selling key players the moment they want out, even to rivals, would secure funds for top drawer players.
But we (generally speaking) refuse to allow key players to leave, especially to rivals.
So we can't afford top drawer players.
...QED most of our incoming signings over the past 5-6 years have been lucky bargains (Toby, Wanyama etc.) or young players on the cheap we hoped would come good (Dier, GKN, Foyth etc.), and our success rate has hovered below the 50% mark all along.
If we want to act like a big club that doesn't sell players unless it wants to, we have to find an alternative source of revenue to bring players in when we want to. That's what a big club does. We currently don't have that and, if Levy's comments are to be believed, we won't have it for a while yet either.
It is worth remembering that by selling Carrick, we could afford Berbatov. And by selling Berbatov, we could afford Modric. Did we strengthen United by doing so? Yes. Would they have simply gone out and found equivalent alternatives anyway had we refused? Again - yes. Did we improve in the post-Carrick and post-Berbatov eras? Again - yes.