Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 5th. June 2019

Wednesday's Meetings

Nottingham
Flat 8 Races 12:00-3:45p.m.
Newton Abbot
N/H 7 Races 1:50-5:10p.m.
Wexford
N/H 7 Races 2:10-5:20p.m.
Fontwell
N/H 7 Races 2:15-5:30p.m.
Kempton(E)
A/W 8 Races 5:15-8:45p.m.
Ripon(E)
Flat 6 Races 6:30-9:00p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Very very interesting to see SUPERB STORY (my favourite County Hurdle winner) back after 2 years off winning a handicap hurdle at Musselburgh and which I didn’t know has changed trainers from the Skeltons to Harry Fry. Also he has a Northumberland Plate entry too. Currently 8/1 but this is probably a pipe opener for him he is a flat winner over in France so should run well but just lacking that match practice for all guns blazing for the Northumberland

 

Just got given the nod for him too from the owners like i got for the County Hurdle couple of years ago, so lump on, he's raring to go!!!

 

Cheeky ****ers texting me once the price has dropped to 6/1 though!!! Still juicy though, will be smashed into tomorrow

 

Sadly can't touch this due to the jockey, best of luck all those that do!

 

Morning

4.00 Fontwell-Hidden Charmer

Each Way @ 12-1 [Bet 365]

Could cause a turn up

 

Cheers Chelsea

 

He’s, as you say, in the ‘Northumberland Plate’ (race also known as ‘Richard Pitman’s Derby’ although I don’t know why) later in the month so I’m guessing, and this is only a guess no-one has texted me, they would be either (i) looking to win easily and get a very big ratings increase to get in the Plate, or (ii) give him an ‘easy’ prep, to bring him on fitness wise, and aim him instead at the consolation race ‘The Northumberland Vase’ (although it’s the consolation race it’s still a very valuable prize in its own right). They would only get in the 'Plate' itself with something like a 10 lbs weight rise following today's run. If Newcastle is the aim, and you would have to think so as why enter him if not, then I would guess, that word again, they will be looking for extremes with today’s run – either a ridiculously easy win or a buried in midfield one. You pays your money and you takes your pick…

Agree that it Interesting to see he has been moved from the stables of ‘ickle’ Dan to that of Harry Fry. Anyone know why?!? The latter, incidentally, seems keen to go down the ‘Alan King route’ and give the old Flat a go…

 

I have a rule never to back a Spencer ride that drifts..... would love to see the stats or whether it’s an incorrect inkling of mine (plus some first hand experience!)

 

I’d love to see that too. I had a look at his riding style spider diagram (attached) which I find slightly surprising too.

What I do find very interesting about Spencer is his rides Run To Form figures are very high. Which is surprising for much maligned figure.

 

I've just never got over him clipping the horse in front in a 3 runner race

 

Some old info https://onemilefourandten.com/2013/...ing-style-results-what-does-the-data-tell-us/

 

5.45 Kempton [Without Quick Breath]

Smokey Lane

Each Way @ 9-2 [pBet 365] 1/4 3 places

Murphy booking catches the eye

 

Also a very interesting stable move De Plotting Shed who went off a very well backed 11/2 for the Close Brothers 2018 when pulled up making his first appearance one of my local trainers Suzi Best . Same owners(a few of them are from Sussex anyway) but an intriguing move! And has the pleasure of being partnered with the champion jockey!

 

2.50 Fontwell

 

Very interesting horse. But complete woof on most of the evidence

 

In the 1.00 Nottingham the favourite looks pretty short for a Handicap Race.

Dalaalaat must surely have been named by someone whose A key was sticking on their keyboard and I feel a lot is being read into the fact that he beat subsequent 2000 Guineas runner-up King Of Change when winning his maiden at this course late last October. King Of Change won a race in April and that race has thrown up some winners since but he went from being rated 92 for that win, to 115 for being behind only Magna Grecia in the 2000 Guineas. That was a whopping 23 lbs rise, which raised my eyebrows and we have not seen him run since to confirm the improvement. All seven runs from the Guineas so far have seen defeats, with only one horse managing a place. How reliable is King Of Change's figure?

In any case, one horse's massive improvement need not translate directly to a horse who had earlier defeated him. Dalaalaat re-appeared with only a 5th place in a Conditions race here, when he was beaten more than 5 lengths. That leaves him rated 82 now, which seems workable but it is clearly miles short of his old sparring partner's new rating. He drops back in trip today, which could help but bookmakers are taking an awful lot of factors as already proven with odds of just 6/4.

King Ademar also has form with King Of Change and his form is more recent, having come in April of this season. That run saw King Ademar given 87 for his official rating and again that looks low enough if we can believe King Of Change ran anything like his new 115 figure when he beat King Ademar. Again, bookmakers are taking little chance with King Ademar at 5/2 and the simple fact is that both the market leaders have form with the Guineas 2nd and they can't both win, so I would rather take another horse each-way at bigger odds.

I went with Entrusting from the Fanshawe yard. He has shown promise in three races and makes his handicap debut dropped in trip to a mile. By Nathaniel he should have scope to improve with time and experience and his latest third place reads reasonably well with the second going on to win next time and the winner only getting beaten a short head by Headman in a good Newbury Handicap race next time. Entrusting's earlier run was also tied in with the same horse when they were 2nd and 3rd to John Gosden's Private Secretary, who won his next two starts and was in contention for the Derby at one stage.

Entrusting looks potentially useful and I thought he was an each-way play against the two "Hotpots" in the betting at odds of 10/1.

1.00 Nottingham Entrusting 10/1 EW

 

Am I right in thinking the ‘Northumberland Plate’ is an early closing race and if Superb Story wins tonight he would only get something like 5-7 lbs increase, in his impost, for the Newcastle race??? That idea struck me over lunch. If that is the case they won’t want to win tonight as all it will achieve is to give him more weight in the consolation race at the meet – a 5-7 lbs hike gives him next to no hope of getting into the actual main race.

The owners may be texting to say he will win (I will leave my regular readers to decide if I’m currently rolling my eyes) but that will do nothing for him in the short/medium term – i.e. why win £6k tonight when it will then hugely diminish Superb Story’s chances of winning a £75k race in a couple of weeks or so???

 

A little bit disappointed with Entrusting. He seemed to begin staying on promisingly but then could not sustain the run and ultimately weakening into 5th. Having already dropped 2F it is hard to say if another drop in distance is required.

If you had backed the Favourite, you never looked like collecting. It seemed as if the jockey was trying to convince that the horse was travelling better than he was but he never really got involved and was well held in 3rd place. King Ademar ran better in second but like the favourite was fairly easy to back.