Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 7th. August 2019

Wednesday's Meetings

Brighton
Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:00p.m.
Sligo
Flat 8 Races 2:05-5:35p.m.
Bath
Flat 7 Races 2:10-5:10p.m.
Pontefract
Flat 8 Races 2:20-5:50p.m.
Yarmouth(E)
Flat 7 Races 5:15-8:15p.m.
Kempton(E)
A/W 7 Races 5:30-8:30p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Tracker came through a few minutes ago telling me not to miss
ESHAASY Kempton 6.30 tomorrow at 4/1
Went on to back it and already in to 7/4. Will win though and Frank some formlines.

 

Morning

3.30 Brighton-Jetstream

Each Way @ 8-1 [Bet Victor] 4 Places

Running better than form figures

 

afternoon,gents!

bath,3 40:

an interesting little race.NONIOS could well be worth a wager here,as although hes struggling a bit for consistency,but his last win in april looks much better now,as the second horse,aquarium, has developed into a useful horse since.so,can go well,at least e w..

 

Surely Ruth Carr will have targeted the 4 50 named in honour of her dad's fav sprinter, Suwaan 6/1

 

Unplaced

 

I've been waiting for this horse as well. The maiden he ran in has thrown up good winners in past renewals and the horse who was 8th in this year's renewal has won since. Eshaasy was 7th in that race and none of those who finished better placed than that has run again yet. My own pick from the race was the runner up Al Suhail and the Dubawi half brother to Telecaster is entered at Leicester this weekend with James Doyle jocked up. The ground is currently soft there though so I am not sure he will run.

Eshaasy is by Oasis Dream and he is entered in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster next month. In order to keep that engagement he probably needs to win today and show a big improvement from last time. Rated 72 on RPR he sets the level here and it looks like the newcomers will form the dangers. The question will be how much Eshaasy improves versus how high any of the newcomers is likely to run to on debut.

My own rough guide for 2YO maidens like tonight's is that a decent prospect will be capable of running between 80 and 90 on debut. If we assume that Gosden's colt can improve 7-10 lbs tonight then it will take a performance of 80 to 85 to beat him. Are any of them likely to run to that?

The obvious starting point is the Appleby runner who is by Dark Angel. He has been backed today and is nearing favouritism, while the Beckett runner has also been supported.

Spirit Of Light has been gelded already though and wears a hood, so I must assume he's had problems. I decided to take the Gosden horse and trust the maiden I saw him in last time being a decent race. Plenty of 2/1 about so he was the pick.

 

Seems weve all been waiting, hopefully does the business.

 

Nice one Stick thanks
Eshaasy won snugly

 

Hard work, took a while to get the message but you always felt he was doing just enough, the market suggested the runner up was the danger and that proved to be the case, he will take a bit of beating next time.

Well done everyone who was on

 

Taking a chance on Alemagna in the next, shes had 2 nice runs so far and the step up in trip should suit. The fav has a great pedigree and won easily over C+D last time but I dont think she will get quite as soft a lead here and she still looked a bit wayward, can definitely see Alemagna laying down a challenge at least in receipt of the penalty and Atzeni obviously a class above Havlin into the bargain.

6.6 out to 10, forget about it, not today

 

yarmouth,7 45:

SCENTASIA looks very much a worthy favourite,as shes run with great credit so far this season,and this slightly shorter trip today might suit her even better.also can run off the same mark as last time out,so plenty of positives here..

 

Great shout stick

 

I doubt Eshaasy posted much of an improved figure in winning tonight. I can't really give him much of a rise based on this performance. There was a desperate weakness in the Godolphin horse late on and form lines with Gosden's Encipher through tonight's runners, who also ran against him, leave Eshaasy a fair bit behind his stablemate, who has a RPR of 87 after his second start.

Tonight's third Protaganist was beaten a length and a half but he was beaten 11 lengths behind Encipher and Oslo was beaten 4 and a quarter lengths tonight but was beaten 8 and a quarter lengths by Encipher.

It's pretty hard to make a case for a rating in excess of 80 for Eshaasy and I would imagine the Champagne Stakes entry is highly unlikely to be kept. I would imagine they will not aim high with him next time.

Of course a win's a win but looking forward I was a bit underwhelmed this evening given that the newcomers were pretty much unexpected and the existing form lines didn't look any better than moderate.

Maybe I'll be wrong but I am sticking by my thinking that 80 might be enough to win tonight's race and that's pretty much where I have pegged Eshaasy and I am not sure I would back him next time.

 

Nice work lads - Stick shares his homework based on his tracker alert and Grendel adds some more ratings analysis to support the case resulting in an A+ for everyone ‍

I feel like the lad sitting behind the brains in class and copying their hard work so I can pass
Cheers Stick (and Grendel) for sharing and making us all a bit wiser and wealthier (at least for a while)

 

Pleasure as always.

 

Cheers Stick, i had a tenner on at 7/4.

 

The Racing Post assessor awarded Eshaasy 79 for his win. That is an improvement of 7 lbs on his first start and probably no more than average improvement from run 1 to 2 for a 2YO. The other horse to win from Eshaasy's first race was William Haggas' Tammani, who was just a neck behind in 8th place and he went on to earn a new rating of 87 for his win. That 15 lbs improvement was more like the step forward you would be hoping for and I am looking to Al Suhail to make a similar leap in the right direction should he run at Leicester on Sunday. Al Suhail is top rated of those entries to have run already and his nearest challenger with a rating is Clive Cox's It's Good To Laugh, who is 8 lbs lower on RPRs. I would imagine Al Suhail will be a short price on Sunday if he keeps his engagement.

 

TAMMANI also went in my tracker from that debut run. I have one more to come from that race which in my view the most interesting of the three, DULAS.