What's the odds

Ahhhh.....Slight problem there...I'll put it down in the chance lost...category. But thanks all the same..

 

It's a regular challenge.

Just need to persuade him not to wear multi coloured football boots now.

 

I'm no mathematician, but I'm pretty sure that if the odds, or probability, of hitting the bar is 20/1, or 5%, then the odds of hitting it three times in a row, or again the probability thereof, is still 20/1 or 5%. Each attempt is a separate unrelated action not affected by the previous attempts. I think.

 

You're right...you're no mathematician!

 

Course it’s related.

You’d be more tired after each one. Plus if you hit the first one, the next one has more pressure to repeat the feat.

 

There's 2 scenarios here. firstly if you said before the event, whats the odds on me hitting the crossbar 3 times consecutively you'd get one price. The second scenario would be 'in play', so you'd get worse odds the more you hit it as the bookie wouldnt want to pay out as he see's its more likely to happen. You'd get a better price overall with scenario 1.

 

I thought it was calculated as 20 x 20 x 20 for three times - ie 8000 / 1

 

The odds are if taken in the simplest form (ie will he won't he or yes no) are 1 in eight.

However when taking into account the difficulty factor, the wind, the friction of the grass in three different places and loads of other stuff I would say it's a long shot.

 

Legend

 

I've studied the maths, logic and calculations on this thread and would like to invite almost everyone of you to our next Poker game

Your invites are in the post (I've just put random postcodes on them though but I still think there's a 50/50 chance of you getting them...)